Hard to see this as anything else. Yeah, she may still run for president in 2012 but, if anything, this makes her an even longer shot. I hate to say this — and I know it will rile some — but I see this as a retreat. She is, to be blunt about it, running away from the savaging she is receiving in the press and from liberals. It’s not exactly cowardice because the press targeted her kids and husband too - something new and despicably low in American politics. But it suggests an inconstancy that presidential candidates shouldn’t have.
She may be doing it for her family now. But if she then shows up in Iowa and New Hampshire asking people for their vote, what are people to think? It’s only going to get worse if she runs in 2012 and people will rightly wonder if she can stand the gaffe. Such doubts will keep the mega money men in the GOP from kicking in. This is not an insurmountable obstacle but it sure makes it harder in those early states for a breakthrough.
If she began her campaign in the fall, she would be eating Romney and Huckafool’s dust. Romney especially has been locking up key personalities in early states and creating a national organization. He has been visible and effective as a spokesman outside of government against Obama’s heavy handed interference in the economy. In short, he is in very good shape. Huckaloser is far behind but has a national TV show on Fox and is effectively presenting himself as Mr. Populist alternative to Romney’s establishmentarianism.
This leaves Palin in an very bad situation. If she had remained as governor, she would have had no chance as Chris Cillizza pointed out a few months ago.
Being from Alaska is a HUGE hurdle for Palin’s national ambitions from a logistical point of view. Alaska is four hours behind east coast time and takes the better part of a day to travel to or from. That means that Palin, if she is committed to running for reelection, can’t simply pop into Iowa or New Hampshire for the day — she needs to take at least two days away from Alaska (a fact her Democratic opponents are sure to take note of) to do the sort of soil-tilling in these early primary and caucus states that is absolutely necessary for a presidential candidate. If she announces some time soon that she will not be running for a second term, she will not only be more free to travel to key states between now and 2010 but will be able to devote full time to campaigning in the critical year between January 2011 and January 2012.
The logistics alone present enormous challenges for even a sitting governor from Alaska. Hence, the clean break that could be followed by a very low key effort to build a national team for a run in 2012. At least, that appears to be her intent. Here’s Michelle Malkin with some excerpts from her press conference that seems to point to some undefined effort to advance her pet issues of energy and national security:
Palin: “I love my job. I love Alaska. It hurts to make this choice. But I’m doing what’s best for Alaska.” Tears in her eyes.
Says she will be able “to effect change from the outside.” America needs protectors of individual rights now more than ever. Promises to always be there for Alaska. Wants to work not just for Alaska, for the rest of the country. Taking a fight for Alaska in a new direction. Quotes MacArthur: “We are not retreating, just advancing in a different direction.”
Lt Gov. Sean Parnell says he receives announcement with a “heavy heart.” Thanks Sarah for inspiring so many.
More from press conference: After touting Alaska’s accomplishments, Palin laments “politics of personal destruction.” Notes attacks. $500,000 in legal bills. “Life is about choices. I choose a path of fruitfulness and productivity. Life is too short to compromise time and resources…I will work very hard for others…I will support others…”
***Chuck Heath, Palin’s brother, on FNC talking about incessant attacks. Very emotional. “It’s weighed on her a long time.” Couldn’t effectively govern when having to defend herself against attacks.
I have been following politics very closely for 30 years and a decade before that as a fan and the only thing comparable to the rabid, frothing, hateful, exaggerated, off the wall kind of media attacks against Palin I have seen was toward the end of the Nixon administration. And we have never, ever in American political history seen attacks on a politician’s children as we have seen with press and media savagery directed against Palin’s kids. (Spouses are fair game - to a point.) These people are incapable of feeling shame because in order to experience that emotion, one must possess a soul and a conscience.
Jim Geraghty had the best explanation for this extravagant, unprecedented hatred directed against Palin:
Hugh suggested it tied to the contrast between her lifestyle and her critics: “She is the embodiment of the anti-choice, the opposite of every choice that lefty elites have ever made — as to going back home instead of moving to the west coast, having children, having a child with Down’s, staying married to one man the whole time, choosing rural or suburban over urban and living a generally conservative lifestyle, working with her hands . . . That everything she is is the antithesis of everything that liberal urban elites are, so it’s not just enough to say, ‘I disagree with you,’; she has to be repudiated and crushed.”
And now, I would submit a slight refining of that idea, that the seeming happiness of Palin’s life is a 24-7 irritant because it challenges the way some liberals see the world.
Liberals believe that their ideas, philosophy, worldview, and policies liberate believers, and that the conservative equivalents limit people. Liberals see themselves as rejecting outdated beliefs and obsolete ideas, overturning established orders, and discarding traditions established by superstitious and ignorant forebears who weren’t as enlightened as we are. Conservatives, in their minds, are runaway cultural superegos, always wagging their fingers about individual responsibility, dismissing excuses, reminding people that they can’t always do what they want because of the consequences to themselves and to others.
Conservatism, they suspect, will leave you in a marriage that doesn’t satisfy you, burden you with children you don’t want, repress your passions, and trap you in a empty, boring, and unfulfilled life, with no hand of government able to help.
In toto, that may be a little too pat. But I think the gist of the argument rings true. It isn’t enough for liberals and the media to oppose Palin. It isn’t enough to attack her. She must be destroyed, left emotionally drained and gagging at the obscenity of the attacks on her children because she is a danger to their one dimensional, shallow view of conservatives and Christians.
Geraghty also believes this move by Palin makes any success in 2012 a long shot:
Not finishing her first term will provide a major, major, major obstacle to any presidential bid. I thought a 2012 campaign would be a mistake; from today’s comments, it’s not clear whether Palin is still interested in that option.
But the moment she expresses an interest in a presidential bid, every rival, Republican and Democrat, will uncork the ready-made zinger: “If elected, would she serve the full four years, or quit sometime in the third year again?”
But as noted, Palin is 45. Life will go on, after this upcoming presidential election, and the next. People thought Richard Nixon was through after the 1960 election. When Ronald Reagan failed to dislodge President Ford in 1976, people thought he had blown his best chance at the presidency. People thought Bill Clinton destroyed his political future with an endlessly long-winded speech at the 1988 Democratic National Convention.
If Palin decides to seek the presidency at the age that Hillary Clinton was when she ran in the 2008 cycle, she will be running in… 2024. That’s a half a generation, and several political lifetimes, away.
Perhaps by then, both conservatives and liberals will have stopped talking about how gorgeous she is.
UPDATE
Allah quotes Geraghty and Ace who believe this is a career ender.
Update: Says Ace, “It’s over. You can’t resign from a governorship and then run for higher office.” I agree. Placing your ambition over your commitment to the state looks shady, especially for someone who won’t have a single full term as governor under her belt for the primaries.
Ordinarily, I would agree with that sentiment. Except, we live in wondrously strange times in American politics and I’m not sure that many of the old verities still hold true. Allah rightly dismisses the Obama comparison Palinites could use to defend her as far as serving time in an important office. But there is the possibility that by the time 2012 rolls around, American politics will be upside down with government at all levels being in such bad odor that running as an “experienced” candidate may be the kiss of death.
Who knows?

























