Comments on: IF THE MITT FITS…

By: Fresh Air

Fresh Air — Fri, 17 Jun 2005 14:54:57 +0000

P.P.S. No disrespect to your prognostications intended. I just think the crystal ball is awfully hazy right now. Detailed mathematical analysis might help clear things up a bit. Ultimately, however, we’ll have to see who the horses are in order to handicap them.

By: Fresh Air

Fresh Air — Fri, 17 Jun 2005 14:52:14 +0000

Are you saying Virginia is becoming a blue state? I hadn’t heard that. As to Latino voters: Don’t make the George Will mistake of assuming it is a static voting block like blacks are for the Democrats. (Last year, he kept repeating this inane statistic he found somewhere about how if George Bush got the same percentage of Hispanic votes, blah, blah…he would lose by X million votes.) Latinos are more mobile, pro-life and, in general, a much more complicated “sell” than black voters are. I’m not saying what you are describing can’t happen, but I am skeptical that Latinos will provide the “tipping point” you describe.

Jay Cost will have a lot to say on this in a couple of years–maybe sooner–and I look forward to his analysis.

P.S. There may be some blue states trending red to think about as well: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

By: Rick Moran

Rick Moran — Fri, 17 Jun 2005 14:26:46 +0000

Thanks for pointing out the error.

Give her two years on the stump. Remember how wooden George Bush was? And the swing states I mentioned are in fact trending demographically toward the Dems. Large increases in Hispanic population in CO and FL as well as smaller increase in OH and VA. As the DC metro area continues to expand, Dems will build up huge margin in Northern VA that’s getting harder and harder for Rep. to overcome. The tipping point may come in ‘08.

You’re correct in pointing out her minuses. It’s just that she’s gonna have more money than God and the terrorism issue will seem like a distant memory.

By: Fresh Air

Fresh Air — Fri, 17 Jun 2005 14:20:25 +0000

I think you made a typo about the 6-point loss; you mean to say the GOP shouldn’t nominate a pro-choice candidate–I think.

Anyway, it all depends upon events. No terrorism on U.S. targets means someone like John McCain or Bill Frist has an opening. A terrorist attack or the prevention of one benefits Rudy. What about Jeb? Aren’t voters experiencing “Clinton fatigue” too?

I have to disagree on the Hill. Hillary is not a good candidate. She is wooden on the stump. Her voice sounds like a bitchy librarian. Her positions are hollow to the core. She is a political neophyte who telegraphs her punches continually. (See Jay Cost’s Red State analysis of her.) She may get the nod, but I don’t see the same level of excitement you do. Many women don’t like her. She is despised in the South. And the Teamster guys who supported Kerry aren’t likely to stand in deep lines to vote for Hillary. I say you’ve got the swing states wrong; with Hillary at the top of the ticket, the Dems get creamed.