As the Israeli military moves decisively against their terrorist tormentors, some pundits are worried that the IDF incursions in to Gaza could precipitate a Middle Eastern war. Specifically, they point out that Syria may take advantage of the deployment of Israel’s defense forces and attack.
This is not in the cards – unless Baby Assad has totally gone off the deep end. Any attack begun by Assad’s admittedly larger but inferior forces will be finished by a qualitatively superior IDF in a matter of days. The only threat Syria poses is a surprise attack where they would have the initiative. But since the Israelis are on high alert and ready for him, Assad can do nothing but sit in his summer house and cower as Israeli jets buzz overhead. And the weak resistance of the Palestinians to the IDF thrust so far only shows that for all of their rhetoric and bluster, Hamas is an empty shell militarily.
The Jordanians? The Egyptians? Not a chance. Both those nations are too dependent on largess from the west to risk alienating Europe and America by initiating hostilities. The Lebanese are extremely angry but can’t muster much in the way of a military response given their domestic political situation. Hizbollah may end up tweaking the Israelis by firing a few rockets into the Jewish state but since they do this all the time, it won’t amount to much.
In short, the coalition of Arab states that went to war with Israel in 1967 and 1973 has changed dramatically. Only Syria remains as a real military threat to Israel. And Assad realizes that it would be a huge gamble going it alone against the IDF. A humiliating loss coupled with his retreat from Lebanon last year would convince the political and military elites in Syria that perhaps it was time for a change of leadership.
It appears that Hamas is discovering how stupid it is to pull on the lion’s tail and not expect a response:
An Israeli military official said a total of 64 Hamas officials were arrested in the early morning roundup. Of those, Palestinian officials said seven are ministers in Hamas’ 23-member Cabinet and 20 others are lawmakers in the 72-seat parliament.Palestinian parliament speaker Abdel Aziz Duaik and Religious Affairs Minister Nayef Rajoub, brother of former West Bank strongman Jibril Rajoub of the rival Fatah party, were among those rounded up. There were conflicting reports about whether Deputy Prime Minister Nasser Shaer, who has called for the release of Israeli Cpl. Gilad Shalit, was arrested.
Officials will be questioned and eventually indicted, the Israeli army and government officials said.
Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said the ministers and lawmakers were not taken as bargaining chips for Shalit’s release, but because Israel holds Hamas responsible for attacks against it.
“The arrests of these Hamas officials … is part of a campaign against a terrorist organization that has escalated its war of terror against Israeli civilians,” Regev said.
There is some intelligent speculation that Hamas has engineered this crisis deliberately, that it seeks to discredit “moderate” Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. There may be something to this speculation in that the incursion by the Israelis as a result of the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier (as well as the firing of about 800 rockets by terrorist groups associated with Hamas into Israel’s settlements over the last month) has discredited Abbas’ calls for dialogue with Prime Minister Ohlmert while strengthening the hand of the radicals:
Earlier, Israeli Public Security Minister Avi Dichter issued a direct threat to kill Hamas chiefs in Syria, the base of the movement’s political leader, Khaled Meshaal. He said Israel had issued warnings to Syria about the presence of Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders in Damascus but that they were disregarded.“This therefore gives Israel full permission to attack these assassins,” he argued.
An aide to Mahmoud Abbas said the Palestinian president called Assad to ask him to persuade Meshaal to help free the soldier. Assad promised to do so, but there have been no results, the aide said.
It is ironic that the Palestinians calling on their Arab neighbors for help in getting a “negotiated release” of captives in Israel in exchange for the young Israeli soldier followed so close on the heels of the IDF’s incursion. They were unwilling to release the young man prior to Israel’s military thrust which proves that the Jewish state knows exactly where to hit their enemies and make them howl. And the arrest of so many Hamas officials will serve to put the terrorists on notice that no one is immune when it comes to Israel’s determination to protect its citizens from the constant threat of attack from terrorists.
Once again, the Palestinians are proving that when it comes to trying to play hardball with the Israelis, they are simply out of their league.
8:15 am
ON THE BRINK? NOT HARDLY
Right Wing Nut HouseAs the Israeli military moves decisively against their terrorist tormentors, some pundits are worried that the IDF incursions in to Gaza could precipitate a Middle Eastern war. Specifically, they point out that Syria may take advant…
9:02 am
There are two areas we could improve our chances in the war on terrorism: 1.)Stay out of Israel’s way and let them take care of business against the Palestinians. The de facto state of Palestine is a major supporter of terrorism. 2.)Commit more resources to Iraq.
10:52 am
Exactly who of my Israeli friends is this sort of inflammatory rhetoric supposed to make safer? Oh yes now I get it…the people who are lucky enough to out of the Middle East warzone. Please stop putting out articles like this and leave this situation to people who enact change and not just create more friction in this seemingly intractable situation. THe international community would ostracise Israel and its supporters if military action overtakes diplomacy, putting the possibility of peace even further away and potentially causing more trouble for our troops trying to bring order to the chaos in terrorist hotbeds like Iraq. Pipe down and let governments do their job.
11:12 am
PIPE DOWN? Wha?
As for me “creating friction…” are you kidding? Do you think that the fact that Hamas refuses to recognize that Israel even exists is some kind of NEGOTIATING PLOY?
These are not rational people that you can negotiate with – not when their stated goal is the destruction of Israel. For anyone to believe that they aren’t deadly serious about this you have to ignore events over the last 60 years.
And if you are going to comment on an article, let me give you a word of advice: READ THE DAMN THING BEFORE YOU SHOOT YOU MOUTH OFF!
There is no way in hell that any general Middle East conflict will arise from these raids. None. Zero. Zilch. And the fact that Israel has endured nearly 800 separate rocket attacks over the last month as well as the provacative attack on their outpost will be forgotten as everyone starts to blame Israel for the violence.
The “Possibility of peace” can only come when Hamas stops wanting to kill every Israeli citizen and negotiates on the basis of a two state solution, something they have made absolutely clear they do not wish to do. And until they do, Israel will continue to defend itself without any help from people like you.
12:16 pm
Way to go Rick
2:51 pm
ON THE BRINK? NOT HARDLY By: Rick Moran
Whatever you want to call it “Land for Peaceâ€, again for the umpteen time, it shows that appeasement to fascist terrorists just does not work.
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8:24 pm
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5:45 pm
Where is a list of 800 rocket attacks? I’d love to see a timeline of 2006, pre-July12 attacks. If you can link one to me, please do.
Thanks in advance