If true – and it just now cleared the wires – this will probably mean some kind of general Middle East war:
The London-based Arabic language newspaper Al-Hayat reported Saturday that “Washington has information according to which Israel gave Damascus 72 hours to stop Hizbullah’s activity along the Lebanon-Israel border and bring about the release the two kidnapped IDF soldiers or it would launch an offensive with disastrous consequences.â€[snip]
The source said that Israel has indicated that it “will not end its military activity until a new situation is created that will prevent Syria and Iran from using terror organizations, such as Hamas and Hizbullah, to threaten its security.â€
Is al-Hayat reliable? I guess we’ll soon find out.
If true, this could mean that Israel is going for the gold; the elimination of the threat posed by Syria and Iran to the Jewish state as well as the destruction of their proxies Hamas and Hezballah.
The logic of the Israeli action is inescapable; why remove the stone from your shoe when the boulder threatens to fall on top of you?
The source for this story is an unnamed “official” in the Pentagon. His motivation for leaking can only be guessed at but one possible reason could be the Pentagon’s extreme concern for American troops in Iraq if, as expected, Iran were to openly declare support for Syria. One clear way to put pressure on Israel would be for Iran to release its militias in Iraq and get them to attack American military targets. If that were to happen, it would get very bloody indeed – especially for the militias. But could the nascent Iraqi government keep from flying apart if al-Sadr’s Mehdi Army and the Badr Brigades (who after all are the military arm of the largest political party in Iraq, the SCIRI) were to openly attack Americans? Unknown.
At the very least, the Iranians would be counting on the pressure from their militias in Iraq to force the Americans to intervene and work hard to stop the Israelis in their tracks. Since they are unable send any real assistance to Syria, their best bet would be to practice a little asymmetrical warfare.
And lets not forget that Iran has several hundred missiles capable of hitting Israel. If Iran goes to war, they’re conventional military forces would be no match for the Israelis which would leave them few options to strike at the Jewish state except their stockpile of missiles.
Washington may not have any say in whether or not Israel actually goes through with an attack on Syria (and Iran?). But what I found significant in what the Pentagon source told al-Hayat was that Israel would keep attacking until a “new situation is created that will prevent Syria and Iran from using terror organizations, such as Hamas and Hizbullah, to threaten its security.†This is a specific warning to Iran and Syria, putting them on notice that both are in the crosshairs.
Do we support Israel in their preemptive attack against Syria and Iran? We can hardly do any less. But for the sake of the world, I hope that Israel wins quickly and decisively. Otherwise, the consequences for the entire world would be dire indeed.
UPDATE
If this story holds up, I imagine I’ll be updating this post all day long.
Chris at Jawa Report:
Syria will not restrain Hizbullah and may be unable to do so without Iran’s agreement. Iran appears to be the major sponsor now.
If the report above is true, Israel will attack Syria for supporting the terrorist group.
Iran will be forced into the war in order to maintain its credibility in the region and to honor the mutual defense agreement it made with Syria in June.
The war will be much wider soon. The big question is: how much support will the US provide to Israel when it is facing the Palestinians, Hezbullah, Syria and Iran? Will we use this opportunity to strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities?
UPDATE II
Ed Morrissey has been on top of the Syria angle for the last 24 hours and reports that a statement issued last night by the Baathist party in support of Hizballah was formulated apparently without the help of Baby Assad, calling into question just who the hell is calling the shots in Syria at the moment.
I’ve written many times since the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon how unahppy the political and military elites were with Assad both with the humiliating retreat as well as the loss of huge amounts of revenue that Syria had been milking from Lebanon for 15 years. This may be one more indication that Assad is little more than a figurehead while the day to day business of government is managed by some kind of “Super Cabinet” of three or four people. This was speculated on when the UN report on the Hariri assassination implicating Assad’s brother in law in the plot first came to light last December.
Ed adds this regarding the ultimatum:
Syria may believe that the mutual defense pact they have with Iran will cause enough nations to rein in Israel before the war escalates into a regional conflict. However, they may find their bluff insufficient. First, most of the West believes that this has already become a regional conflict, and that Syria and Iran have deep involvement in Hamas and Hezbollah. All Israel’s ultimatum accomplishes is to add significant risk to Syria directly for their proxy war. Second, the Iranians will find it quite difficult to march to the aid of Syria with 135,000 American troops blocking their way, and the US Navy in the Persian Gulf.
Israel has decided to raise the stakes on Syria. Will Syria blink?
Good question. A better one is can Baby Assad afford another humiliation?
UPDATE III
Haaretz is quoting an IDF official who is denying the ultimatum story:
Responding to a report in a pan-Arab daily newspaper that Israel presented Damascus with an ultimatum, an Israel Defense Forces officer said Saturday that targeting Syria is currently not on Israel’s agenda.We’re not a gang that shoots in every direction,” the officer said. “It won’t be right to bring Syria into the campaign.”
The London-based Al-Hayat newspaper reported Saturday that Israel issued an ultimatum to Syrian President Bashar Assad, according to which a regional war would erupt within 72 hours if Damascus does not prevent Hezbollah attacks.
The officer is not identified nor do we know if he would be in a position to issue that kind of denial.
9:24 am
An Israeli Ultimatum To Syria
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10:35 am
And your point is what below he beltway?
I am for Isreal doing whatever it has to do to stop this madness once and for all. They have had enough and I for agree 100% with everything they are doing and Bush needs to talk long and hard to putin and the chinese. Syria can rot in hell and I hope they get the crap bombed outta them also. I hpoe they hit that high pitched syrian ambassadr should he take a trip back home. I’d also like to see some bombs fly into Iran and hit the so called leader in the head. They are giving the militants the rockets by the way with syria’s help.
Hope the brave Lebonese civilians get the hell outta there.
They are not really welcome in some the so called Arab friendly states—thats a shame.
Well enough of my ranting for now—be back so —GO ISREAL.
11:11 am
[...] Rick Moran says: If true – and it just now cleared the wires – this will probably mean some kind of general Middle East war. [...]
11:30 am
All Out War – The World Showdown
After three Israeli soldiers were taken hostage intentionally, we are now seeing All Out War!! We know now that Iran is stepping up and taking credit for provoking Israel to defend themselves. After months of threats, definance, and continuing nu …...
12:34 pm
[...] Update: Rick Moran’s tracking the rumor, first reported at Ynet, that Israel’s given Assad 72 hours to turn over the two kidnapped soldiers or suffer the consequences. At least one Israeli officer has denied it, but Ynet is a credible source. [...]
4:33 pm
While I hope Israel makes Syria pay for having supported terrorism (and I wish the US had done something to Syria for what Syria has done in Iraq), I don’t see it, as Rick does, becoming a general war. By all accounts, Syria can’t match Israel and will go down quickly. As for those who would help Syria, Iran is a ways away, with no easy way to get to the scene. Neither Egypt nor Jordan will jump in (not because they love Israel but because, I presume, Israel is well-prepared to fight on those fronts and those two countries know it). The rest of the Israel-hating Middle East/Arab/Muslim world may send support of some kind, but nothing of any substance. Russia isn’t coming in to save Syria, nor will it come in to save Iran should Iran be dumb enough to get openly involved. And, as far as the EU sending in its military to set things right… yeah, right, they can’t send the little they have without US airlifter support.
So I’m looking at this as a free shot for Israel… all upside and very little downside. Upside: they deal a serious blow to Hezbollah, they create a 50 mile buffer on the Lebanese southern border (or however much they need to keep Hezbollah rockets away from Israel), they get to bloody – at a minimum – Assad’s nose for his support of Hezbollah and they expose Iran as all bluster. downside: the EU hates them anyway and Iran was going to target Israel with its nukes anyway; this isn’t putting Israel any higher on the target list.
4:39 pm
Israel at war 15 July
Report: Israel gives Syria ultimatum
The London-based Arabic language newspaper Al-Hayat reported Saturday that “Washington has information according to which Israel gave Damascus 72 hours to stop Hizbullah’s activity along the Lebanon-Israel borde…
5:23 am
The Devil’s Arithmetic
When will the ‘stop or I’ll say stop again’ brigade learn their lesson. You do not come to a gun fight armed with a knife. “Israel’s military invasion and naval blockade of Lebanon is being denounced in European capitals and at the United Nations …
10:14 am
In general I agree with steve sturm’s assesment. Although this does have the ability to become a “Regional Conflict,” I do not believe it will. To this point no one in the Arab World is rallying to the side of either Hamas or Hizbollah (other than symantically). The Saudi’s have openly condemned Hizbollah. The Egyptian’s and Jordaninan’s have peace agreements with Israel. Syria for some unknown reason has stepped into the breach. Remember ‘82 when Syria lost 80 aircraft to Israel. The Iranians do not have the ability to help Syria barring rhetoric.
11:44 am
War with Iran
Is war with Iran avoidable?
2:08 pm
The time has come to end this, yes there will be bloodshed on both sides, no doubt about it, but bloodshed is necessary to achieve the ultimate goal, peace.
10:18 am
It’s time the world would rid itself of psychopaths such as the Iranian leaders and other trouble makers. The recent events shed a very clear light on the Middle Eastern picture, Those UN officials, who care to confuse wolfs with lambs, should consider a different job or take some lessons of how to keep your back straight so they can see the real picture and talk out of their mouth (as appose to alternate ways) and stop ridicule their highly regarded position.
No Peace will come about with a G8 that is reluctant to take a strong stand against Iranian leadership who at one sentence denies the Holocaust ever happened and in the second, compares the Israeli administration to the Nazi regime….. Which is it Ayatollah….? I am getting confused…. Or is it time for your kind to be taken down from the stage.
This is a rare opportunity for The US, EU, and Russia to finally turn on the hit on their lukewarm unified positions because I’m under the impression extremists only speak and understand their own language, correct me if I am wrong.
12:47 am
The war against our brothers in Palestine and Lebanon and all other Muslim countries ,Know that same fate which befalls us will befall you, in history nations have gained an upperhand over another nation but what happened to the mightier nation it was destroyed. Every Nation has their time in success but when the nation that holds sway oppressos other nations know that their downfall will not happen upon the hands of other men but Upon Allah (GOD) for verily god has declared oppression upon himself haram (forbidden) so what about man.
This war will lead to the destruction of America and its Allies for surely you have not hurt the people of lebanon and palestines but all the muslims around the world everywhere young and old our conviction in our deen is strong and we by the glory and the might of God have been given victory insha allah .