Well, either because they want to generate power with it (you must surely admit that they are allowed to do so), or as a national prestige within the boundaries of international law thing, or because they want go to a threshold nuclear status.

Possibly. Or not. Either way there is zero evidence that they are trying to do anything that doesn’t match with their stated goal of generating power.

“If not by us then certainly by Israel. ”

I think that they might be hoping that if Israel does it then Iraq would fall to them. I think they are in for a nasty surprise if they think that but hey, everyone has their delusions. To be honest I think they’ve got themselves stuck up a tree with their nuclear program where they can’t back down but they are not really sure why they are bothering anymore. I suspect that if the right offer came on the table they’d back down in a heartbeat with great sighs of relief, but they can’t do that unless they can point to the deal and say “We have come out of this unbowed”.

“For instance, how did the group penetrate security? That’s something the US doesn’t want out there but my guess would be that their English was very, very good or our guys were very, very lax.”

Good English is pretty common out there, as it is everywhere. I would imagine this goes double for ex Army spec forces types given their two big enemies (Iran and US). And, given the way things seem to be over there I’d say the security from Iraqi guards is pretty lax. They have probably got used to waving US patrols through without looking too closely. I doubt the GIs would react very well to, say, an Iraqi patrol pointing guns at them and demanding to see their papers. I equally doubt that GIs are slowing down and showing their papers to every Iraqi who has managed to get hold of an army uniform and a gun. That would be suicidal.

How they penetrated security in terms of kit? Plenty of US surplus in the world, lots of poor Iraqis with access, plenty of moles in the Iraqi Army / Police. That strikes me as the easy bit.

I admit that the brazenness is pretty shocking, but they’d probably tried the op without the bang (Just drive around dressed as US forces) beforehand and knew that it had a good chance of working.

“As for your theory about insurgent special forces, it is an intruiging possibility but doesn’t explain their making for the Iranian border.”

I am not privy to sources, of course, but Karbala is bang in the middle of the country isn’t it? I mean Babil is to the right of it so they would have been heading towards Iran, but they could also have been heading for Bagdhad via the Southern route or just about any other little dusty hellhole to hide out in. It seems a stretch to say they were headed for Iran when they hadn’t even crossed the Tigris. Not that I’m saying they weren’t, it just seems very little to make an accusation on.

“And I don’t buy the Iranians being put off by Bush bombing them. They think the US and Iran have been at war since 1979. The fact that we don’t recognize that fact is immaterial to them.”

Well, maybe, I’ll grant, but I am always concerned by the “They’re mad and they don’t care about themselves” idea. Nation-states usually have at least a strategic goal when they do things this dangerous, even if that goal is nuts. I just can’t see what the goal would be. A few dead GIs unattributed seems pretty worthless, kidnap would result in a lot of flat Iranian sites (Bush ain’t Carter, you have to say that for him). It just seems pointless. As an Iranian, what would you do with 4 kidnapped GIs and a US administration that is just itching for an excuse to bomb you to bits?

“Also, they could be reading the Washington Post or New York Times in Tehran where it has been reported that Congressional leaders have warned Bush not to take action against Iran without coming through them first.”

Well, if it were my country I’d like to see some democratic oversight about committing the nation to war myself, but it isn’t, and my lot don’t have to either so I can’t talk.

“Or, they could simply care less about the bombing. After all, the leadership will be safe. If the people suffer, well that’s just the cost of war.”

Again, maybe, but it strikes me that, at least Mr Ahmadenijhad would be concerned for his neck. I mean, he couldn’t be loopy enough to think that blatantly starting a war with the US will improve his popularity can he? I suspect that he thinks that if the US attacks and he can cry “What did we do? the monsters are just trying to invade another innocent nation. Death to the Imperialist aggressors!” he will get more grassroot support, but if he kicks it all off in such a direct manner, that won’t wash with either the people or the senior clerics.

“The Qods Force is extremely well organized and well trained. I have no way of knowing but I agree with Roggio – an Iranian operation.”

I can’t persuade you into a more agnostic “I don’t know and won’t draw any conclusions at this stage with the negligible evidence to hand” stance then?

This sort of thing goes from guesswork to established fact awfully fast these days with little more than people sticking to their original position. Without evidence it just seems a very dangerous conclusion to make that could have grave effects on the lives of many thousands of people. At the moment the evidence seems to be “They were heading vaguely in the direction of the Iranian border and it looked very well organised”.

Sure, when there is some reliable evidence, shift ground as it dictates, but for now surely we should be reserving judgement.

A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention.

2. Why would Iran do it?

Why continue to try and enrich uranium when they know they’re going to get hit? If not by us then certainly by Israel. There are things about this story that we don’t know. For instance, how did the group penetrate security? That’s something the US doesn’t want out there but my guess would be that their English was very, very good or our guys were very, very lax.

As for your theory about insurgent special forces, it is an intruiging possibility but doesn’t explain their making for the Iranian border. And I don’t buy the Iranians being put off by Bush bombing them. They think the US and Iran have been at war since 1979. The fact that we don’t recognize that fact is immaterial to them.

Also, they could be reading the Washington Post or New York Times in Tehran where it has been reported that Congressional leaders have warned Bush not to take action against Iran without coming through them first.

Or, they could simply care less about the bombing. After all, the leadership will be safe. If the people suffer, well that’s just the cost of war.

The Qods Force is extremely well organized and well trained. I have no way of knowing but I agree with Roggio - an Iranian operation.

How hard would it have been for Former Iraqi army special forces members, acting as part of the nationalist insurgency, to have carried out?

For them this would have been a bit of a coup, for the Iranians it would be entirely insane. After all, if it failed and you were left with Iranian special forces in custody, the bombs would start falling on Iran in short order wouldn’t they? I somehow doubt that the Iranians are willing to risk that as part of some quirky hostage scheme to recover their diplomats, particularly when they would know that Mr.Bush would never give in to such demands.

On the other hand, ex-Iraqi army special forces member would be easily capable of doing something like this with just a little logistical support and they would consider it a very successful operation, since their plan is to make the US forces feel isolated and volnerable.

So, I propose an alternative theory. It was Ex-Iraqi army special forces engaged in a bit of very well done subterfuge. The reports of Iranian influence from anonymous sources can be explained by the obvious ramping up of war rhetoric towards Iran.

Your alternative requires an explaination for why the Iranians would want to risk the US bombing the hell out of their country for a few strategically meaningless captives.

I hope to see the Iranian “leader” fall this year. If the surge is successful, I expect that to happen. He is certainly making the powerful clerics angry.