For the last three years, poll after poll has shown an American public who overwhelming believed that the war was mismanaged, that Bush was doing a horrible job in prosecuting it, that it wasn’t worth the effort, that we never should have invaded in the first place, and that we are losing the war.
Of course, the only poll that matters – on election day – saw the Democrats sweep into power promising to “change course” in Iraq. Not defund the troops. Not redeploy to Okinawa. Not carry out a domestic insurgency against the military by setting impossibly high benchmarks for the Pentagon to meet in order to send troops to the war zone. Not even set arbitrary timetables for withdrawal, although a majority of Americans would support a timetable to withdraw some troops over the next one or two years.
In fact, I commented here after the election on the curious disconnect between what Democrats were actually telling the American people before the election and the anti-war “mandate” they were claiming after the vote. With precious few exceptions, the Democrats did not talk about pulling our troops out of Iraq in 6 months or a year. They didn’t advocate timetables for withdrawal. They didn’t run commercials about supporting the defunding of the war or redeploying troops elsewhere.
Their unmistakable message to the voters prior to election day was that they would “change course” in Iraq – an interesting theme that appealed to a broad section of the American electorate. Since even many conservatives and moderate hawks advocated “changing course” in Iraq, this big tent approach obviously worked. At least it “worked” in the sense that the Democrats got their majority.
Two recent polls however, indicate one of two things; either the American people, when faced with the reality of a Democratic majority, are having second thoughts about leaving Iraq before some semblance of order is achieved or, more likely, a couple of pollsters have finally asked the “right” questions about Iraq to reveal what the American people have believed all along.
In fact, this poll reveals what has been one of the best kept secrets of American opinion over the past three years. A fairly consistent majority of between 55% and 65% oppose pulling our troops out immediately (59%). And another consistent sign of support is that a majority (57%) support “finishing the job in Iraq” – keeping the troops there until the Iraqi government can handle security on its own. (HT: James Joyner)
The simple minded sloganeering from the left about polls on Iraq and how the American people support their anti-war agenda down the line fails to take into a account that citizens have a fairly sophisticated, nuanced outlook on the war. They think Bush is doing a poor job (60% “strongly” or “somewhat strongly” agree” ), that 52% believe Congress isn’t doing much better, that only 17% want our troops to leave immediately, that a bare majority (50%) believe we should stay until the job is done, that a surprising 56% agree with the idea of supporting the President even if they disagree with him (another 17% “somewhat agree”), and in another surprise, 53% believe that victory is still possible.
Also, a whopping 66% believe that losing the war would cause America to lose its super power status. And 53% believe strongly that the Democrats have gone too far, too fast, in pressing the President to remove troops from Iraq.
The American people are also realists about the outcome. More than 80% believe Iraq will not become a stable democracy after the US leaves.
The other poll taken by IBD shows similar attitudes toward the war, the President, and the Democrats.
What gives? You can believe we are losing the war (as I do) and still support the President and the mission. You can think that the President is doing a piss poor job of prosecuting the war but also believe the Democrats are dead wrong in moving to defund it or throw a monkey wrench into troop rotations. You can be convinced that Iraq will not be a stable democracy after we leave but still think that the country is “a key part” in the War on Terror (57%).
In short, when pollsters start treating the American people as if they had a brain and ask a series of questions designed to elicit responses that, when taken together, give a much more nuanced snapshot of how the people actually look at Iraq, the “anti-war mandate” claimed by Democrats in the aftermath of the election dissolves into mush.
Not pro-war by any stretch and certainly indicating that they have zero patience with both an endless continuation of past strategies as well as political gamesmanship by the Democrats, the American people – practical, realistic, and desirous of getting on with the task of meeting our goals and getting the hell out – have proved once again that they actually understand the stakes in Iraq as well as realizing that things are going poorly and that changes are needed if success is to be ours.
Perhaps if we all stopped treating the public as little children who need to be told what to think, what to believe about Iraq, we could get beyond the one dimensional critiques of the war on both sides and work together on a plan consistent with their wishes to get out of Iraq with the goal of leaving an Iraqi government in place that can handle its own security and not be a threat to us or her neighbors. If those goals are achieved, I think it’s pretty clear that the majority of Americans would see our efforts in Iraq as a success. Perhaps not a “victory” in any realistic sense – but far from a defeat and definitely something to build on in the years ahead as Iraq will continue to struggle with instituting democracy.
Support for our war aims in Iraq will endure only as long as the people believe we have a chance of succeeding. The next 6 months will be critical to that perception as the surge currently underway will seek to create conditions for the Iraqi government to work toward political goals that should broaden its base of support and negotiate with the factions to end the cycle of violence that has Baghdad and its environs in its grip. The patience of the American people has worn thin. It’s time for the Iraqi government to do what is necessary so that our troops can start coming home.
The sooner – the better.
UPDATE
In addition to linking to the raw data, James Joyner also has an interesting summary of the poll results:
“The survey shows Americans want to win in Iraq, and that they understand Iraq is the central point in the war against terrorism and they can support a U.S. strategy aimed at achieving victory,†said Neil Newhouse, a partner in POS. “The idea of pulling back from Iraq is not where the majority of Americans are.â€
“How Americans view the war does not line up with the partisan messages or actions coming out of Washington,†said Davis Lundy, president of The Moriah Group [the Chattanooga PR firm which commissioned the survey]. “There are still a majority of Americans out there who want to support the President and a focused effort to define and achieve victory.â€
“The key group driving public opinion here are what we call the “nose-holdersâ€, said Newhouse. “They don’t believe we should have gone to war or should still be there, but they believe we should stay and do whatever it takes to restore order until the Iraqis can govern and provide security for their own country.â€
Both pro and anti war advocates have ignored “nose holders” for far too long. These are the practical and nuanced Americans I wrote about above. They are smarter than most of us and probably have a lot less patience than pro-war supporters believe. They probably voted Democratic in the elections last November. But they will almost certainly punish the Democrats if they go through with their slow bleed the troops strategy – especially if Republicans get off their duff and make the case that this cynical strategy is nothing short of “cut and run” on the sly.
And I will say to my fellow conservatives that we shouldn’t be doing too much crowing about these numbers. While some of these responses give the lie to any “anti-war mandate” claimed by the left in the aftermath of the election, neither do they represent much good news. Clearly, the American people want out of Iraq quickly. As long as progress is made toward that goal, the President will be able to maintain this support. But if things go south with the surge or Maliki proves himself to be even more of an empty suit than he already has, that support will disappear in a heartbeat.
7:54 am
Interesting. The polls say Americans want to succeed in Iraq, but they also do not think that the current leadership is capable of achieving that goal.
So perhaps Bush’s inability to climb out of the 30s approval-wise this year has more to do with his screwing things up than the actual fact of the war itself?
One thing is for sure, 4 years of this administration’s failures in Iraq hardly means that the American people have lost their taste for success.
8:01 am
LC:
One of the more intelligent comments you’ve left here.
I agree almost 100%. I think Bush’s approval is also tied up in the general perception of incompetence (somewhat unfair given the state of the economy and a few other indicators) but also the belief that he has failed to lead on a number of issues important to them like health care.
8:05 am
[...] Rick Moran is spot on with this: Perhaps if we all stopped treating the public as little children who need to be told what to think, what to believe about Iraq, we could get beyond the one dimensional critiques of the war on both sides and work together on a plan consistent with their wishes to get out of Iraq with the goal of leaving an Iraqi government in place that can handle its own security and not be a threat to us or her neighbors. If those goals are achieved, I think it’s pretty clear that the majority of Americans would see our efforts in Iraq as a success. Perhaps not a “victory†in any realistic sense – but far from a defeat and definitely something to build on in the years ahead as Iraq will continue to struggle with instituting democracy. [...]
8:15 am
I agree with most of this. I’m not as pessimistic about today in part because I’m surprized Iraq didn’t come apart sooner. I’m surprized at the restraint by the Shi’ia and Sistani. I think that bodes well for tomorrow.
The Republican lead Congress really dropped the ball the most for us. There were plenty of post war plans, and a Republican Congress really should have called Bremer and the Generals, and others into hearings to ask why such-and-such plan was picked.
I remember Biden expressing reservations pre-War that Bush was not preparing the country for the experience of the long slog that the post-war experience was going to be in Iraq. Biden didn’t think the country up for it.
I thought Biden right then, although dismayed he decided to jump ship from a war he supported. I think the American people, as these polls show, still committed to the principles. They deserved better from Congress though.
9:28 am
I think the much ballyhooed ‘surge’ is reflected in these polls. People are relieved we finally abandoned ‘stay the course’ which obviously wasn’t working. It’ll be interesting to see what, if anything changes in the Fall.
10:02 am
Given the proximity to President’s Day it’s worth noting that some historian said, roughly, General Washington lost every battle he fought except the last one.
And watch just about any ‘war’ show on the History Channel and you can see that mistakes correlate with the sun coming up in the morning. Although I saw this at least a year ago I’ll never forget the German soldiers at Omaha Beach describing the sound of bombs exploding 1/2 to 1 mile BEHIND them. The aviation commanders were so concerned about friendly fire that they TARGETED not the bunkers the Germans were using but well behind them. The troops storming the beach had no air support and thousands were slaughtered.
If citing “Bush’s mistakes” is a way to keep the half of the Democrats that still want to win the war on our side that’s a price that Bush simply has to pay. The history books will be far kinder. I was told by a Democrat that history books will lead on the topic of the Iraq War with the intelligence debacle/WMDs. I followed up by asking him if the Tonkin Gulf incident similarly defines the Vietnam War. He, like most Americans, had no idea what the Tonkin Gulf incident was.
11:22 am
Web Reconnaissance for 02/21/2007
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention.
3:07 pm
Of course nobody citing this poll seems to point out that it was done by a partisan Republican polling firm that asked the questions in such a way as to guarantee a Republican-friendly result.
Partisan polling firms have a place, but they exist to test out party strategy and party lines, not to provide information as to what the public wants. It’s like those Democrats who cited Harold Ford’s internal polls as proof that he was going to win. Internal, partisan polls are not reliable.
In the real world, then, the situation remains the same: most Americans do not like this war, they realize we cannot “win,” and that Bush seeks America’s defeat: because the more we stay in Iraq, the worse Iraq gets; ergo, Bush wants America to suffer a worse defeat.
Republicans are the party that wants America to be defeated and humiliated (by staying in Iraq and making things worse), while Democrats, the serious national-security party, want to salvage something from this mess.
3:12 pm
This sounds like the poll which was front page news in today’s NY Post- a poll conducted by PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES. Their website:
http://www.pos.org/
They are a Republican polling firm. The thing about polls is that one needs to see a bunch of them to get any idea of what the trends are. One poll tells us nothing. And of course, the only polls that matter are on election day.
6:13 pm
“Also, a whopping 66% believe that losing the war would cause America to lose its super power status.”
That’s actually pretty sad. Seeing as Iraq is tiny compared to Vietnam, why should anyone think this? Vietnam didn’t cause us to lose the Cold War.
12:23 am
These polls actually show what the majority of Americans think concerning the war in Iraq. We really wish we weren’t there; However since we are we need to stay there until the Iraq Government can persevere .We as a country need discontinue strategies of Limited no win Wars. I support the additional troops in Iraq, I only hope they are used much more intelligently than we have utilized them thus far.
12:40 pm
It always amazed me that hardly anyone criticized the liberal media after the election, when they said, and continue to say that, “The American people have sent a clear message with this election. They want the troops home now and an end to the war.”
To be polite – bull poopy!
In most of the races where a Republican was defeated by a Democrat, the vote was very close – 53% to 47%, 51% to 49% – hardly a clear message at all! You only have to look at Joe Liberman as a perfect example. There probabaly isn’t a more ardent supporter of the war and Bush on the Democratic side than Joe, and he won his election without even having the support of his own party!
The polls are always suspect, but the is a message from thsi election. What do I think the people were trying to say? I think they are confused and divived, and don’t know who to trust to keep our solders out of harms way and WIN this effort.
I’ll bet most of them agree with the following:
1. Saddam may not have been as eminent a threat as we thought at the time, but it’s good thing that he’s gone.
2. We botched the war stategy, and continue to even today by not going full blast.
3. We failed to correctly anticipate what would happen between the factions when Saddam’s iron fist was removed.
4. Maybe some new voices in congress can shape this outcome better.
5. We don’t want to abandon Iraq. We want a stable country. It does not heve to be like our democracy, or even a democracy at all. It merely needs to be a responsible member of the world community, and not support terrorism.
6:38 pm
Bob:
I agree with you 100%. The problem is the liberal/anti-war voice is the only voice that is heard by the mainstream today becasue MSM is virtually only reporting their side of the issue. There are no moderate voices. If the people were faced with the statements you listed, there would be a general concensus. But who will put such statements out there and then who would report the results without a biased spin. (See comment #8 for an example)
1:38 pm
One thing Congress is ignoring is its high negative ratings both before and after the election. It rose out of the level of ‘used car salesman’ to barely even with the President. Remember, that they deride the President’s negatives while keeping mum about their own negatives… and if they keep up with the foolishness they are doing now, used car salesman will start to look as a mighty good alternative, because that is how far they will drop. There is no ‘up’ in their direction as America has come to look askance at Congress, too.