One complexity here is that there isn’t any such thing as an Iraqi/Iranian border in those waters. The Iranians claim that it was Iranian waters, the Brits claim it was Iraqi.

Not that this makes holding the marines acceptable, but it does explain the reticence of other in the international community to stand up.

And can I just add that it is at times like these when it would be nice if one could protest about cruel treatment of your nationals in other people’s hands without the entire world laughing at you and saying “I thought the Geneva conventions were quaint?” and “Hiljab or Jumpsuit, what’s the difference?”

Integrity, once lost, is very difficult to regain.

But to what purpose? its a big risk on the part of the Iranians. They have to weigh the very real risk that Britain may be able to snatch their people right back, leaving Iran in a very bad place indeed.

Britain may secure Iranian assets in retaliation. Bandar Abbas is a port - the primary port for Iran, ports can and often are - blockaded or “quaranteened” as JFK would say.

Britain may capture Iranian commerical aircraft as they fly into the UK and impound them for any number of legal reasons. Without too much trouble, I’ll bet they could get the legion of mid level immigration officials throughout the EU to have a bit of a work slowdown when it comes to processing paperwork for Iranian interests.

Again, there are lots of ways to get someones attention that dont involve precison munitions.

Its a big risk as well if some Iranian mid level staffer decides on his own to take things to a new level and harm the hostages or decides on his own fire off one them big expensive anti ship missiles they bought from china at just the wrong time at just the wrong ship.

Its a big risk if the world community were to come out against iran and start pulling their embassy staffs as well since they can no longer be sure of their safety. Now to be sure, all countries will act in their own self interest, but im not sure the mullahs want to become the north korean cote d’azur. Oil or no oil, if you cant be given assurances that your people and property will be respected, you just dont do business there, no matter how much baksheesh is involved.

If you as the government of iran know these things about your situation and you procede anyway, its because youve weighed the risks and you dont care. Your goals and eventual potential reward will override the fear of what might happen.

That tells me that this is a very different situation from what weve seen before.

They are not looking for an opportunity to negotiate, they really are looking for confrontation. That is what they are seeking here, but only under their terms.

My question is “why”?

I smell fear here on the part of the mullahs, and its not fear of England, but fear of something closer to home.

This caes might be a little different. Military people in the aggregate may be expected to take risks but I daresay the British press has humanized the hostages now to the point where the people don’t see them as sailors but as the neighbor’s kid.

In that respect, if - and that’s a very speculative if - the Iranians were to use them as human shields, it would certainly make Blair think twice about launching an attack.

That said, the most significant part of this whole thing is that this is the first time Ive seen Iran do ‘hostage taking’ as formal state policy. Usually there is a polite layer of third parties wrapped around the action to give Iran a fig leaf to hide behind, but in this case its clear that this is the actions of the Iranian governent itself that has taken this action. This is state policy for iran, not those troublesome kids at the University, which is something all the other states in the world will surely notice.

If Iran can do this to Britain without fear of reprisal, what chance does Poland, Japan, Argentina have to not get their embassys overrun at the wrong moment?

This is more like the USS Pueblo incident than anything else. The only odd thing is that in this case the Iranians seem interested in the one thing that hostage takers arent interested in, and thats an escalation of the situation. THey seem to be very much trying to make Britain overreach or overreact.