MUSINGS ON A LATE SPRING AFTERNOON
Weekends are mostly quiet around The House. Visitors are few and far between and nobody bothers to read what I write.
Come to think of it - that pretty much sounds like what happens on weekdays too. In truth, blogging lately has been a depressing pastime. Events here and around the world are careening toward some kind of climax - perhaps not an explosion but certainly some sort of denouement that will alter the landscape and make the world a different place. Political re-alignment here at home is in the offing - something the Republicans in Congress seemed bound and determined to speed along. It smells like 1979 to me. All the signs that pointed to an overturning of the established order back then - deep discontent among our fellow citizens, a sense of events spinning out of our control, a world situation made dicey by our own missteps, and the nagging feeling that a change would probably do us some good - are eerily present in 2007.
Of course, the big difference is that the Democrats don’t have a Ronald Reagan to take advantage of the situation. Nobody will ever confuse Hilliary’s shrill denunciations with the twinkle in the Gipper’s eye when he zinged an opponent. Nor will anyone fail to see the difference between the inspirational yet empty platitudes of Obama with Reagan’s soaring rhetoric that touched something so American in people’s souls.
The Republicans don’t have a Reagan to save them either. Just as well. I think even The Great Communicator would find it hard to get through to the blockheads who control the party. From the national headquarters on down through my local Republican organization, the GOP is demonstrating all the symptoms of a sick puppy; lethargy, sleepiness, a pathetic and forlorn look on its face, and the disgusting habit of soiling its own house.
What the Democrats have is plenty of ammunition to use against the Republicans and the fact that voters are in a punishing mood. That and a curious death wish exhibited by the GOP means that chances are very good that even if a Republican is elected President, the House and Senate gains made by the Democrats will be augmented considerably in 2008. And given the enormous power of incumbency today, that will mean a virtual GOP lockout from regaining power on the Hill for the foreseeable future.
Those of you inclined to be more optimistic and wish to take me to task for being a gloomy gus, I have some news for you - it’s only going to get worse.
The Democrats have yet to really get busy investigating stuff that even if you are a dyed in the wool Bushie will make your hair stand on end. I’m talking about billions and billions of dollars that have disappeared in Iraq. Just up and went missing. No one knows where it is, whether it was spent on legitimate projects or whether someone just walked into the Coalition Provisional Authority offices and stuffed gobs of $100 bills down their pants. Estimates range from $4 billion to $7 billion dollars of taxpayers money down the rabbit hole.
Then there was the actual letting of contracts and that whole mess which will show not only favoritism toward Republican contractors but also a lot of waste, fraud, and abuse. There have already been at least two trials where contractors have been found guilty and the investigations continue.
Similar accusations (and proof that there is fire where that smoke is coming from) will be forthcoming when Democrats investigate the letting of Katrina rebuilding and clean up contracts. Some of that information has been out in the open for a while but we can trust the Democrats to tie it all up and present it to the voters with a nice, neat, bow.
Then there’s Iraq. I want to say that by November, 2008 Iraq will be well on its way to becoming a viable state, relatively violence free with a government who respects the political rights of all of its citizens. I want to say it but I won’t. Iraq then will probably look a lot like Iraq today. Less violence, perhaps. But the very same problems that have to be solved before the bleeding will stop are still not going to be addressed by the Iraqi government. They are incapable of dealing with reality. And I might add that no timetable or benchmark is going to get them off square one either. So much for the Democrat’s “plan” to end the war in anything but what they’ve desired all along; a humiliating retreat in the face of the enemy.
So there’s that to look forward to. And the almost certain collapse of the Musharraf government in Pakistan - or at least his less than graceful exit from power. Who replaces him will be one of the more interesting questions facing the United States over the next 18 months.
And Iran. Let’s not forget our friends, the mad mullahs. I’d like to say that by November, 2008 the threat of a nuclear Iran will have diminished and their dreams of becoming a regional powerhouse tossed on the dustbin of history. I’d like to say it but I won’t. I will boldly go out on a limb and predict that the Administration will not bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities nor will Israel. That’s because the mullahs are still having problems with the technical aspects of enriching uranium. (Note: The New York Times story last week about Iranian progress at Nantanz was incorrect. See here for a full accounting of what ElBaradei actually said. They are still 3-5 years away from having the bomb.)
Iran will still be making trouble in Iraq on election day - even if we have begun to pull out. This story in today’s Guardian - a situation with the militias I’ve alluded to many times in the South - shows what the mullah’s game is in Iraq. I have little confidence that we can do a damn thing about it.
North Korea will continue to drag its heels, trying to extort more and more from us as we pay them to abandon their nuclear program. Africa will continue to bleed in places like Darfur, Nigeria, the Congo, and points in between. Asia will continue to be roiled by Islamic fundamentalism. Europe will continue its slide into a stuporous defeatism with regards to the War on Terror and their ability to work with the United States in any meaningful way to defeat Islamism.
Yoikes! But my black dog’s got a hold of me today! I hasten to add that most of this is not the fault of the United States but rather historical forces that have been simmering since before the Cold War ended. Nor is it possible for the United States to “manage” or even “guide” events in most of these places to mitigate the worst of what is going on. No nation has that kind of power. This is simply the world as it is circa 2007. And we have to live in it.
It would be comforting to think that a change in parties controlling Washington will have much of an effect on what is occurring on this planet. It won’t. It can’t. The liberal Democrats are as bereft of ideas on how to confront most of these problems as the clueless policy makers and stubborn, turf conscious bureaucrats who currently run things. It’s hard for us Americans to admit it but some problems are just not solvable. Change comes whether we like it or not. Sometimes that change is accompanied by rivers of blood. Sometimes not. Our ability to determine one outcome or the other is extremely limited. Military power, “soft power,” economic power, cultural dominance - all pale in comparison to the tidal forces that are moving various peoples toward a far distant and unknowing shore.
This is the ebb and flow of history. All we can do is sit in the boat and ride out the storm as best we can.
“In 1937, the rise of Nazism and the threat of the Anschluss led Karl Popper to emigrate to New Zealand”
I share you sense of impending chaos. Is this a time when Popper would have moved out?
Are there other places in this globalized world that might be safe to ride out the coming storm?
Comment by dhancock — 5/19/2007 @ 4:14 pm
I visit your site as a touchstone to see what righties are saying. I often think of you as a paleo-con (a conservative I could respect). I hear the sadness in your tone; and I think you’re mostly right in this post. I felt somewhat like you back in 2002-2005, when it seemed the left was dying a torturous death and the future looked permanently neo-con. I wanted to get away too. I encourage you to keep blogging, stay intellectually honest–tell it like you see it. And, remember, this is a lefty talking.
Keep the debate civil, but keep the debate.
steve
Comment by steve — 5/19/2007 @ 4:50 pm
Both the Dems and Reps seem bereft of ideas right now. After 5 years of Bush’s foreign policy I think even his most adamant supporters would admit that a) it hasn’t reduced the threat of terrorism and b) may have even increased it. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan drag on with no foreseeable end. We need to change our game plan.
I’m really disappointed that all the front runners in the GOP race seem to want to continue on the present course.
Comment by Gregdn — 5/19/2007 @ 5:00 pm
I have been uncharastically gloomy and doomy myself these days. Like you, I see the writing on the wall. And it ain’t lookin’ good.
I am actually looking forward to the end of the Bush administration and I never thought I’d say that outloud. Other than his steadfastness on the war on terror, there is little else to commend his time in office on. And with the way Iraq has been so horribly mismanaged, the shimmer is off that shine.
Comment by Karen — 5/19/2007 @ 5:58 pm
Harping about waste, fraud and abuse is so 90s (if not 80s).
What does Occum’s Razor say if there is no paperwork to support $1 billion of gov’t spending in Iraq? Criminals squirreling the money in Swiss bank accounts or hard pressed gov’t workers with incomplete files that don’t substantiate money that was spent for valid purposes? These people are Americans - our brothers, cousins, uncles, aunts, school mates and neighbors - most of whom volunteered to work in difficult conditions away from their families.
Nearly every large contract I worked on went to arbitration. The ones that didn’t - all went to court. No exceptions (from memory anyway). This crap is not new and means absolutely nothing. Investigate, and when actual criminality is found prosecute. But stop slandering our contracting folks with this where there’s smoke there’s fire crap. And for that matter, I’m sick of references to Iraq as an “adventure” (from a previous post). The word fits with African safaris and white water rafting, not a deadly, difficult effort to change the trajectory of a portion of the globe and hundreds of millions. I wonder how our civil rights leaders would feel about pundits calling the civil rights movement an “adventure”? Or how Jews would feel about references to the 1930/40s German quest for world domination as an “adventure”? Just because you’ve lost faith is no reason to be flippant.
Comment by Sweetie — 5/19/2007 @ 7:11 pm
dhancock,
Australia and New Zealand are very attractive locations. English,conservative and still rule their lives by common sense. Beautiful terrain as well.
Comment by curmudgeon40 — 5/19/2007 @ 8:07 pm
Well, I read your website on the weekends! I can understand your frustration with blogging at that point. Attacks coming in from folks that hate that you question the party line, and then there is the lefties with their “told you so’s”. I’m not a blogger myself, but reading your prose, you lay it out “as it is” with no apologies. Love it, love it.
I totally agree with you on where we’ll be very soon. Lived through it more than once, and its discouraged me from even believing anyone in Washington.
Out of a family of 5 (with three older sisters, two of them in the healthcare profession), I actually have a small spectrum of the “common” voter. I’m conservative. My oldest sister is a closet Liberal. She won’t admit it as it would probably disappoint Dad, but her thoughts and justifications for our debates (that I love) are straight Michael Moore, Al Gore claptrap. Explaining facts and figures (which are indisputable outside of a Hollywood production –cough– F911, Inconvenient Truth — cough — are quickly dismissed because “that’s the way it is! [Science and research be damned!]”
In any event, this is what will happen if a Demo is elected in 2008 (which is a very real possibility, money and donations to the candidates or the GOP be damned)… We’ll get into this whole new “dialog” with our enemies. This will be heralded as how strong Dems are with foreign relations. They will talk and discuss (unlike Repubs that always want to go to war first to further enrich their defense contractors as the media like to report it) and that will be heralded as the U.S. participating in World Relations unlike BusHitler McChimpy. Actually, I will say that I tire of both of our sides with the cute little names we have for each other, but I digress. The thing I absolutely HATED while I was in the Army from 90-96 was Clinton’s constant apologizing for everything the US did when he was on foreign soil. It didn’t matter that as a Nation, it was the right thing, he would apologize because it agreed with whatever beef the local Gov’t and especially the media had against us at the time.
So, that leaves us with your words and what I feel will very well happen. Lame Duck status of the President will cripple our foreign efforts, cause a lot of conservatives and others to move back into an isolationist policy with foreign affairs to our detriment, and we get to go through this whole circus all over again. This time with much higher stakes!
Oh, and as far as this convoluted immigration bill is… Will the last citizen of this country please remember to bring the flag and turn out the lights on their way out? Thanks!
Comment by TheFwiP — 5/19/2007 @ 10:43 pm
it is time to stockpile.
Comment by Bob Zimmerman — 5/19/2007 @ 11:27 pm
Hey, Rick,
Wy so down? Sometimes the old garbage has to be cleaned out before the new takes hold.
We’ve gone through two incredibly bad, self-serving and/or ineffectual presidents in a row, but that’s happened to America before.
Events will not allow the defeatist, isolationist slough to take hold, either here or in Europe.
In the interim, we have to keep fighting, hard for our beloved Republic, whatever it takes.
I see it as mostly a case of Americans defining what we really need in our next president and acting accordingly.. historically that’s exactly what they’ve done in the past.
We need to get back on track after 15 years of mediocre leadership.
And in reality,there’s still some pretty good leadership out there.
Finally, keep in mind that neither Bush nor Iraq will likely be factors in 2008. people will be looking at the future.
We will prevail in the end, simply because we have too much too lose if we don’t.
Regards,
ff
Comment by Freedom Fighter — 5/20/2007 @ 12:52 am
but what they’ve desired all along; a humiliating retreat in the face of the enemy.
That’s such crap, Rick, please. Anyone on my side would have been thrilled if a viable democracy were to blossom in Iraq.
The difference is that we felt the chances were very slim, not good enough to warrant the invasion.
No one on the left is happy except for one thing: GWBushCo will be gone from office, along with his gang of geniuses.
Comment by SteveAudio — 5/20/2007 @ 1:27 am
[...] Right Wing Nut House does some musing on a late spring afternoon [...]
Pingback by Pirate’s Cove » Blog Archive » Sorta Blogless Sunday Pinup — 5/20/2007 @ 8:11 am
If a Democrat is elected think of the vitriol that can be spread. It will be like the good old days when everything wrong can be blamed on the other side. The is nothing more unifying than some good old hate and vitriolic expression. And don’t forget those moderates, those vile swing voters that decide elections, save some of your best denigration for them. Whatever you do don’t ever think that next time when you are in power that you govern all of the country, that you should at least attempt to make peace with your enemies. Don‘t, under any circumstances, show that you have the maturity to govern with out disparaging the other side.
Comment by grognard — 5/20/2007 @ 9:02 am
That’s such crap, Rick, please. Anyone on my side would have been thrilled if a viable democracy were to blossom in Iraq.
The difference is that we felt the chances were very slim, not good enough to warrant the invasion.
No one on the left is happy except for one thing: GWBushCo will be gone from office, along with his gang of geniuses.
Hear, Hear.
I am tired of crap such as the givens:
1. Democrats hate America and love defeat. Screw that. George Bush got every single thing he wanted for five years. The result, thousands are dead, many more thousands are injured and the mission he championed is failing. Top that with a broken military in every area from personnel to equipment the failure is massive. Hardly something we’d cheered for.
2. Reagan is what’s missing from political life today. Sunny optimism, big ideas, bold moves, and morning in America. Well we see hundreds of Marines dead in Beruit, trading with our enimies, greed, and welfare qeen fantasies. I spent most of my military career loathing the man in charge while doing my duty. My fondest memory: “Was Martin Luther King a communist? We’ll find out in about 35 years.” ~ Ronald Reagan.
3. Democrats and Republicans are beref of ideas. Really? Well your ideas suck, like teaching the Earth is 6000 years old, and that brain dead vegetables dance. Sure you may be rational about evolution and not turning the United States into a theocratic mess, but that’s not who is runnin your party. You have ten dwarves running for preident, three of whom belive evolutionis fantasy, nine who think torture is just dandy, and a twice divorced, mean spirited, adultrous bully who will say anything on abortion to get elected.
Yes we need all of that in these times of trouble.
Comment by Richard Bottoms — 5/20/2007 @ 9:31 am
Let me tell you what crap I’M tired of, Ricahrd.
I’m sick to death of YOU.
You have ten dwarves running for preident, three of whom belive evolutionis fantasy, nine who think torture is just dandy, and a twice divorced, mean spirited, adultrous bully who will say anything on abortion to get elected.
Exaggeration, lie, lie, exaggeration. You are incapable of making a comment without one or the other. I am SICK TO DEATH OF YOU. You add nothing to the discourse on the blog. You pollute it with crap. And life is too short to have to deal with people like you.
Once again. And for good. You are banned.
Comment by Rick Moran — 5/20/2007 @ 9:40 am
“What does Occum’s Razor say if there is no paperwork to support $1 billion of gov’t spending in Iraq? Criminals squirreling the money in Swiss bank accounts or hard pressed gov’t workers with incomplete files that don’t substantiate money that was spent for valid purposes?”
Occam’s razor says nothing about it because the competing propositions;
1) Some people when offered the easy chance to be corrupt tend to be corrupt. (And lets face it, being able to take out a couple of blocks of $100s without signing for them is an invitation to corruption.
2) Some people were overwhelmed by the paperwork and failed to account for expenditure.
Have as few entities as each other, and both are widely observable human behaviours.
Thus the answer, by Occam (not really a suitable tool for the task) is “Probably a bit of both but who knows”.
“These people are Americans – our brothers, cousins, uncles, aunts, school mates and neighbors – most of whom volunteered to work in difficult conditions away from their families.”
Bad news for you, Americans are people just like everyone else and can be counted on to behave like people.
Comment by Drongo — 5/21/2007 @ 4:30 am
“It smells like 1979.” What a great line. I was thinking about 1974 too. Brilliant post.
Comment by kreiz — 5/21/2007 @ 5:24 am
Rick,
I stop by through my RSS feeds daily; even on the weekends. I too am sad and worried — makes the praying a little more intense these days.
Keep it up. We need a cool head around these parts.
Comment by Jo — 5/21/2007 @ 5:53 am
Remember the film The Untouchables? Connery’s character says when all the apples in the barrel are rotten the only alternative is to go to the orchard… I agree the current bipartisan collection of thieves and reprobates running our country breaks my heart, and I say this as a man who until recently saw John McCain, for all his flaws, as a potential vindicator of our philosophy. Now I don’t know what to do other than play craps with the future and hope for the best. Obama is pretty much a blank slate, he was a standard lib in his twenties but sounds like he might be capable of growth at 45… if we could get him to commit to mainstream judicial picks I don’t think any of the Repubs running could be any worse for the country, and he might be able to heal a lot of the BDS damage that’s made terrorists chic.
Comment by Wayne S. — 5/21/2007 @ 7:35 am
Our great experiment has survived many external threats before and will survive the terrorist threat as well. We have endured very bad Presidents (Carter, Hoover, the list goes on) and we will survive Bush and whatever boob the Democrats elect in 2008.
Rick, blogging has forced you to look at a lot of sick trees and you are missing the beauty of the forest. Politics is a means, not an end. Relax, take a walk, have a picnic with your lady. Life is good.
Comment by ed — 5/21/2007 @ 10:38 am
[...] Right Wing Nut House, “Musings on a Late Spring Afternoon†[...]
Pingback by The Glittering Eye » Blog Archive » Eye on the Watcher’s Council — 5/23/2007 @ 9:01 am
[...] Keeping a close eye on Weasels Time for the weekly Weasel Watcher winner roundup. This week’s winners, as always, make for great reading. On the Council side of things, the winners are Israel Faces Its Choices In Gaza by Joshuapundit, and Musings on a Late Spring Afternoon, by Right Wing Nut House. On the non-Council side the winners are On Dehumanizing the Enemy In War and the Nature of Victory, by TigerHawk, and The Inbetween War by Seraphic Secret. Read ‘em. They’re good, really good. Indeed, I voted for three of them. [...]
Pingback by Keeping a close eye on Weasels « Bookworm Room — 5/25/2007 @ 11:05 am
Watcher’s Council results…
And now… the winning entries in the Watcher’s Council vote for this week are Israel Faces Its Choices In Gaza by Joshuapundit, and On Dehumanizing the Enemy In War and the Nature of Victory by TigerHawk. All members, please be……
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