Compared to what?

Four situations come to mind in COIN work: the 1960’s in Algeria, the British experience with the Malay, the US experience in Haiti 1915-34, and the ending of the Moro insurgency in the Philippines 1901-10. That last makes what is going on in Iraq look like a cakewalk in comparison, as it had some of the most vicious forms of fighting the US Army and Marines have ever experienced, for all the fact it was a small forces affair. Each of those took as long or, like Haiti, much longer than Iraq and Afghanistan have gone on and Haiti was a failure due to the political class in the US unwilling to set its mind on any goal and stick to it. That sounds disturbingly familiar.

Congress in authorizing force in Iraq has the responsibility of ensuring that the Armed Forces are properly sized, scoped out, equipped, and that stores and supplies are available in the pipeline for them. After the 1990’s and the draw-down, in which two Army divisions fell to their lowest rating since Vietnam, something that has not been reached *since* even with active combat going on, the deficiencies in the Congressional outlook over that last 15 years is reprehensible. Ditto two Executives.

Congress put forward a long bill of particulars for Iraq and then did not do *its job* of ensuring that the Nation was prepared for however long it would take. I personally expected 8-15 years of *combat*. But then that is typical for a small forces counter-insurgency campaign in a single Nation. Two of them? Where is Congress? Oh, they are looking to dissolve the borders and flood the Nation with anyone that can get to Mexico and run over it… even if that includes tens or hundereds or more from the Middle East, like Syria, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Egypt.

Then those lovely congresscritters have the audacity to go up and complain about the lack of spares, stores and supplies… which they are supposed to scope out, fund and ensure that they are procured. Lovely, that: “You didn’t get what you needed because we didn’t buy it… bad on the President for not doing our job!”

I have yet to hear what other conflict that Iraq is supposed to be compared to by *any* naysayer or critic of the conflict. That might take cracking open some history books. Looking at force levels. Looking at industrial commitment. Looking at the uses and abuses of propaganda by all concerned.

Instead of perspective, there is collective myopia on the political class and their supporters as *everything* gets turned into political fodder. Meanwhile the Nation dissolves out from under our feet because the corrosive effects of that outlook has removed any common ground with which to have a Nation. The lovely era of Nation State warfare from the 20th century is gone. The current enemies are trying to drag us back past the 19th century, past 1648 and all the way back to the 7th century. Our lovely Nation State tools of the 20th century are not able to handle that. And if you look before that you will find the tools… but we lack the will and foresight to be willing to fight as the founders did and take up their viewpoint on warfare. Mind you they did have a democracy then.

I am coming to see what Hamilton warned about in Federalist No. 26.

And that, too, takes historical perspective.

You are not listening to reson.

You are makin several incorrect assumptions.

1. Congress is not the one that will decide what policy America will follow in Iraq. As it has been demonstrated, it is the President acting as the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces that decides troop levels, as well as war strategy. As we stand, the Republican Party (unless they are suicidal) are getting ready to “cut and run” from Bush’s failed policy in Iraq come September. I believe the last straw for a lot of Republican politicians, was to see the Iraqi Government respond to our surge by going on a two month vacation.

2. The troop levels that could make a difference are in the several hundreds of thousands, and the time frame in the decades. And that’s provided that some day some how the Shiite the Sunni, and the Kurds would be willing to live together in Iraq. That’s not our call to make Chris, and America will not stand for that kind of open- ended commitment. It’s a bridge too far.

3. Every day that goes by with more killings logic tell’s you that the Shiite, Sunni, and Kurds feelings of hatred toward each other increases. Every day that goes by on this Civil War, or mess take your pick, the eductaed people of iraq, the professionals, and the peace makers simply go live somwhere else, and what’s left is a failed nation with no foundations upon a come back can be supported.

4. A Shiite Iraq will ally itself with Iran. Iran is our worst enemy in the world. Why would any one want to risk this kind of result. Why would America want to stay in Iraq for decades, loose tens of thousands of lives only to end up empowering Iran?

If you get frustrated about people telling you and others what we can’t do…. Is because we CAN NOT DO IT. Is not our fault that your policies from the get go were incorrect.

You see Chris is like building a house. If your foundation was designed for a 2,000 sq/ft home, and some smart ass tries to build a 3,000 sq/ft house instead….I don’t have to tell you it just ain’t going to work, and to listen to the people that no doubt would call to your attention to that FACT, would be the wise thing to do…. Unless you want to call them nay- sayers, and end up dead when the roof collapses on top of you.

About until the hardcore Jihadis get killed, possibly long enough for a whole lot of ex-insurgents to go through the police training academy and get given shiny uniforms, new guns and access-all-areas passes, I would imagine.

Combat troops are always at a premium. We kept units in the front lines until they were worn to a nub in WWII and Korea. That seems to be a military decision, not a political one.

Every time this debate comes up, we hear about what we can’t do, how we’re in over our heads, how we don’t understand our enemies or allies. This is exactly the attitude that aggravates me. We can “win” this war if we put our minds to it. “Victory” would be a functioning democracy in the heart of the Caliphate. The fact that we can’t muster the political will to do so because of our bifurcated polity does not mean that we lack the capacity.

Iraq is a very complex and fluid place. The last four years have shown that we are incredibly out of our depth there. These Anbar successes happen while we have lose over 100 soldiers this month in fatalities. They happen knowing full well we do not the force necessarily to pacify. We don’t choose the terms of engagement, they do.

All we’re doing is letting other people cash the checks of this administration’s mouthpieces. A shame…a disgusting shame.

You sound like you want America to stay until we “win” .

Let me remind you of a few realities that can open your eyes (if you try) to the imposibility of a clear win in Iraq.

Reality No 1. Our Army and Army Reserves are now running on fumes. Mr. Bush has made sure that in “supporting” our troops, he almost nearly dismanteled our proud Armed Forces. Today only fools or delusional people can still be counted to believe that we can stay in Iraq at present or bigger troop levels and accomplish anithing resembling a victory as defined by Bush and his followers. In short, we don’t have the troops to stay there for the duration that can extend to decades.

Reality No 2. Al Malaki clearly does not have the influence with the SHiite that is required to bring them to the table. Absent that there will be no compromise with the Sunni and the Kurds and absent a compromise there will be no end to the violence in Iraq surge or no surge. Maibe that’s why the Iraqi politicians decided to use the time Bush gave them with the surge to go on a two month vacation, after all what’s the point in staying in Baghdad and pretend any more? Too bad our soldiers can’t take a vacation too.

Reality No 3. Even if we would accomplish all our goals in Iraq we would only empower Iran. We all know that a Democratic Iraq represents a Shiite Iraq. If you know anithing about the Shiite kow this…. They will ally themselves with their brothers the Shiite in Iran. SO what kind of sacrifice are we making???? If Bush is an idiot it does not mean that we all are supposed to become idiots too you know.

I can go on, and on but you get the picture. Reality is a bitch sometimes, but you have to face it.

The mood of this country is more and more resembling that of a teenager. Inability to concentrate for more than a few months at a time, lack of ability to look more than same time into the future, refusal to contemplate possible consequences of actions because they don’t make us feel good.

If we screw this up, and I mean we as a country, not Bush, not the Democrats, all of us, then no one is going to trust us to deliver. We gave welfare reform ten years before we decided it had worked. Too bad we didn’t give up on it, either, just because it made people feel bad. Just think of the opportunity to keep repeating that mistake we missed out on.