stoutly refrigerator McMillan slops sinking bridled:…

ampoule perishable expunges …

Drongo: we have a tendancy to turn our enemy-du-jour into the 10ft Tall Invincible superman; we did it with the Germans, then the Soviets, and there has been a Media and Critic attempt to do it with Al Qaeda.

I say this because, the scenario you outline is very Machiavellian, and frankly, me personally, I don’t think they are that smart, or that clever, to work that out in Advance!

Now, depending upon your personal “take” on the Iraq and/or Afghan Wars, it may be an unintended consequence AFTERWARDS, but I personally don’t believe that they “planned” it!

Nice posts. There is one other theory on why the US hasn’t been attacked while the UK, Spain, etc, etc have.

This is the idea that the 911 attacks were more of a matador’s cape than a real attempt to defeat the US. Under this theory, Bin Laden et al wanted the US to get bogged down in a nasty guerilla war in Afghanistan. Following this theory they were rudely surprised when the US fought the Afghan war the right way, by empowering local chiefs to fight the war for us, by having a light footprint in country, and by mainly acting as a financier. Unfortunately for us, since then, we have embarked on a mission to fundamentally change Afghanistan which is, I would estimate, doomed to fail. We would have been better off to have left the warlords in charge and let them run the country how they wanted, but there we are.

Of course, if Bin Laden’s motive was to bog the US down in an unpopular war with impossible goals in a Muslim country, draining away cash and reputation then the invasion of Iraq would be his wildest dream.

So one possible explaination for the lack of US attacks is that they are simply not needed. The US is acting as he wants it to, and further attacks would not achieve anything. It also explains the pre-US election message of support for Kerry, since Bin Laden is a thouroughly modern communicator he must have known that this would only aid Bush, which would be what was wanted, a direct approach and “No surrender” attitude.

Of course this is all speculation.

I wonder how many attacks it will take before President Bush stops visiting Imams and then telling us how peaceful Islam is…1300 years of history says he is full of crap.

The “miracle” is not that 19 Jihadis, with a $500,000 budget, and box-cutters murdered 3000 people, and toppled the WTC; the actual “miracle” is that it DIDN’T HAPPEN BEFORE, and even more puzzling, HASN’T HAPPENED SINCE!

I don’t for the life of me, know why Al Qaeda/Hezbollah, have NOT started a Homicide Bomber/Carbomb campaign in this country

Why attack? They are achieving their goals without attacking. Europe is collapsing into Sharia, we are bending over farther and farther backwards to accomadate them. Perhaps they have come to the correct conclusion that another attack will merely enrage us and perhaps cause us to actually get serious about winning the wars of the ME. We can you know…at a moments notice with the will of our Grandfathers nearly all the wars in the ME could be over in days. It will take a lot of killing but we have the means…we just don’t have the will.

If the jihadists strike us hard and kill thousands this time Bush won’t be able to moderate our rage.

R/dale

I appreciate the excellent and informative responses to my questions. I certainly agree that the plots stopped so far (publically) have been very amateurish, and most likely any trained terrorist’s plots are silenced for national security reasons. Common ground there.

We may not agree on the Iraq War (I have always thought those resources should have gone toward border security, intelligence, and port security instead of overthrowing a dictator that will inevitably be replaced by another), but I suspect we agree that very much more needs to be done to fight terrorism and increase our own security.

And just so you know, your ideas DO make me think and sometimes reconsider my own.

“You mentioned keeping Jihadist’s busy in Iraq as helping keep them from attacking the U.S. I pray this is true.”

You and I both; but you also have to know, that our IC, our Military, our Law Enforcement, the DHS, etc., etc. HAVE to be 100% correct!, to avoid ANY terrorist attack!

No room for error.

The Jihadis, on the other hand, only need a 1% success rate!

I use the example of the Space Shuttle to illustrate this to critics.

ed, do you know how many SUCESSFUL Space Shuttle flights there have been??

……

There has been a total of 118 Shuttle Flights; 116 Successful, and the two obvious “Failures”!

So, if someone asks you, “tell me about Space Shuttle flights”; I’m sure the first two you mention, are going to be the failures!

Wow, where else could a 98.4% Success rate, be considered a Failure?

Same with 9/11, and any other Jihadi attack; no one will ever remember the successes, the Jihadis are successful if they only get thru ONCE!

It’s basically impossible, based upon human nature, weaknesses, incompetence, to be successful in stopping ALL Jihadi attacks/plots, etc.!

That leads into your next point:

“What I don’t understand is that the entire 9/11 operation only involved a few dozen plotters and operations people and a half a million dollars at most. It would seem to me, although I don’t have your knowledge or background, that nothing going on in Iraq could stop a few dozen men from raising suffecient cash and carrying out a serious terrorist act in the U.S.”

You are, in my humble opinion, 100% correct!

I told my colleagues, after 9/11, and the handwringing and second-guessing began, that they had it BACKWARDS!

The “miracle” is not that 19 Jihadis, with a $500,000 budget, and box-cutters murdered 3000 people, and toppled the WTC; the actual “miracle” is that it DIDN’T HAPPEN BEFORE, and even more puzzling, HASN’T HAPPENED SINCE!

I don’t for the life of me, know why Al Qaeda/Hezbollah, have NOT started a Homicide Bomber/Carbomb campaign in this country.

With our open borders, and the Leftist nuts inside the CIA/NSA/DOD/US Congress, etc., who have in effect, gutted all the efforts the Bush Administration has tried to stay on top of the Jihadis: the NSA program, the SWIFT Program, the FISA program, etc., by LEAKING everything about them to the MSM, I’m just amazed that we haven’t been hit dozens, if not scores of times since 9/11 & the Iraq Invasion.

I’m not the only person who has wondered this, of course; trust me, they are talking about it every day, “inside”.

My only explainations are completely my own, and I’m not egotistical enough to think they are all-inclusive nor complete:

a) Al Qaeda was caught somewhat by surprise, by the “success” of 9/11, in actually knocking down both of the towers. Bin Laden himself, has kind of admitted that, in a video of him captured after we invaded Afghanistan, and broadcast all over the world.

Bottomline, that “success” has kind of spoiled them; the want the Next attack, to be even MORE “successful” than 9/11; in a way, they would lose “face” and generate talks of their impotence, or devasted capabilities as the result of US actions since 9/11, if they started to launch piddly-assed attacks, like they tried in Britain, which is a different case than the US.

b) truly, Afghanistan & Iraq, has really tied them down. We know (and by “we” I mean this is NOT any “inside” info, it’s available on the net, if you know where to look!), that there have been serious Theological Discussions, and even Rifts within Al Qaeda, over which targets to attack first.

When 9/11 was carried out, it was seen as a victory for Bin Laden/Zawahiri, as the proponents of “Far Jihadi”. There had been ongoing theological rifts for years, between the proponents of “Far Jihad” i.e. let’s not sit back and wait for the Americans to come to us, let’s take the fight to their homelands, and the proponents of “Near Jihad”; which was the philosophy favored by others, and which meant basically, let’s get rid of the corrupt local Muslim/Arab governments, backed by the US/West, first, then take the fight to the homelands of the Americans.

Bin Laden/Zawahiri, pushed and won the debate of “Far Jihad” vs. “Near Jihad”, and with 9/11, “won” the argument.

However, the Iraq invasion, changed the dynamic, they clearly did not only NOT expect the Taliban and themselves to get pushed out of Afghanistan so easily (relying upon over 300 years of Military History which stated that no foreign power could in fact, prevail in Afghanistan); but they also never expected the invasion of Iraq.

Since then, there has been ample evidence that with the Invasion of Iraq, the rifts between the “Far Jihad” and “Near Jihad” proponents have been opened again, and it is clear from documentation captured in Iraq, and from Jihadi forums, etc., that the “Far Jihad” approach was put on the backburner, and that “Near Jihad” definitely came to the fore again. In fact, the evidence is that the Jihadis now consider, the War in Iraq to be their SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT battleground in the their eventual plans to re-establish the Worldwide Islamic Caliphate!

To them, it would be an absolutely devastating loss of faith, to lose in Iraq, they’ve tied all their resources, all their efforts, and all their propaganda up on the last 4 years, in “winning” in Iraq.

That is a fact; so in that sense, I think you are not correct.

“I also would like to think that our intelligence and law enforcement efforts (shutting down several active plots that we know of) have played a more important role in preventing terrorist attacks than the Iraq War. You obviously know more than I do on the topic, so my question is, where am I wrong in these assumptions?”

Remember the “Millenium” Plot; that was touted by the Clinton Administration as a big “success” in the war against Terror!

It was anything but; it wasn’t picked up by our IC AT ALL!

Despite what Clinton, Berger, Clarke lie about it!

It was one, single, on-the-ball female Customs officer, at the border, late at night, who was suspicious of an idiot coming across the border, and did what she should do, and that arrest, and that arrest only, stopped the plot!

Well, I bring that up, because whether we admit it or not, the “plots” that have become public over the past 4 years, have been more, really about the amateurishness, and stupidity of the actually Plotters, than about anything we’ve really done to stop them!

That includes the NYC Pipeline plot, the Ft. Dix plot, etc.

Now notice, I am NOT, like the Left, pooh poohing the fact that there actually EXISTS a threat from Jihadis, and that by chance, another dozen of amateurs, can get lucky, and kill Thousands.

That CAN Happen.

It’s just that I personally, have not seen one single Plot, that has become public in the past 4 years, that was being done by “Professionals”.

Now, I’m caveating this, because I don’t have “inside” information any more, and I have NO IDEA what SERIOUS plots have been stopped, that for reasons of National Security, or exploitation aspects, have NOT become “public”.

I have no idea, and I have no details; based upon comments over the past couple of years, by people such as Bush and Cheney and Chertoff etc., I suspect there have been dozens of such cases, but I don’t know details, and I suspect that any of those, may have been a bit more professional, and hence more dangerous.

But I would propose to you, that you should NOT take the fact that there have been NO major attacks since 9/11, and a half dozen amateurish plots have in fact been stopped, as comfort in thinking that we have a complete handle on everything, and that we’re safe over here!

In fact, I believe, it’s exactly the opposite.

I think they’re planning the BIG one, though in what form, I cannot accurately predict.

And we are NOT 100% perfectly capbable of stopping everything; especially with our completely OPEN borders, north and south.

As you know also, still only something like 3% of all shipping containers coming into the US, are inspected!

I can’t imagine what theyve been successful in smuggling thru, that way.

So, again, I would propose, that the ONLY reasons we’ve haven’t been hit with the “big one”, just yet is because:

a) we have, thanks to Iraq and Afghanistan, seriously degraded their capabilities

b) in Iraq and Afghanistan and Yemen and Saudi and Pakistan, we have literally killed THOUSANDS of their most capable agents, and they are having a hard time replacing/training them, with no “safe havens” anymore..

c) that the Iraq War, has in fact, caused them to concentrate for the past 4 years, more on the “Near Jihad”, vice the “Far Jihad”

d) they want to hit us with a more Spectacular Attack than 9/11, the next time, and for that reason, they’ve kind of backed off a bit.

e) and we have no idea, how long they will continue to do that, and what they have in the “works”; other than they WILL attack us again, and they only have to be succesful ONCE!

I hope that answers your questions; I don’ expect to Change your mind on anything, and thus am not trying.

But, I did try to give you honest answers; the rest is up to you!

I often disagree with your positions, but your first post on this thread was a terrific, thought-filled statement that is appreciated. I do have one question. You mentioned keeping Jihadist’s busy in Iraq as helping keep them from attacking the U.S. I pray this is true.

What I don’t understand is that the entire 9/11 operation only involved a few dozen plotters and operations people and a half a million dollars at most. It would seem to me, although I don’t have your knowledge or background, that nothing going on in Iraq could stop a few dozen men from raising suffecient cash and carrying out a serious terrorist act in the U.S.

I also would like to think that our intelligence and law enforcement efforts (shutting down several active plots that we know of) have played a more important role in preventing terrorist attacks than the Iraq War. You obviously know more than I do on the topic, so my question is, where am I wrong in these assumptions?