Comments on: FINAL DES MOINES REGISTER POLL A PUZZLER

By: CreativeP

CreativeP — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 23:22:42 +0000

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By: Geoffb

Geoffb — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 18:00:02 +0000

The whole thing about having States which together total roughly 5 million decide which candidates will be voted on by the other 300 million is what is crazy. Might as well throw darts at the names to decide who will run in the rest of the country.

We need a better system as this one is getting more broken each 4 year cycle.

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 16:53:48 +0000

The DM Register is nothing but a DNC newsletter with TV listings and weather. Republicans here don’t ever trust it. Any poll by them is always suspect. No one can predict with any believability what caucus goers finally decide. How cold and how much snow might. There has never been a very high percentage of voters that also caucus. It’s a bit of a mystery to me that is tells anybody anything.

By: SlimGuy

SlimGuy — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 15:27:23 +0000

Pollster had historic data as to how all the polls did in past races plus a recent survey of how the polling companies rate each other. It came out as a sorta mixed bag.

The high undecided factors make you wonder if that could be true after about 2 years of looking at some of the candidates.

I think Iowa takes their king maker simi-pro status as important to their image and they might game the polls just to keep interest focused on them and how important they are to the process just to keep the parties from doing what they should have done long ago and say they are going to replace them with another state that does straight primary voting rather than doing all the game playing.

By: Cory

Cory — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 15:19:49 +0000

If this poll is accurate, then the people of Iowa really aren’t very bright.

By: Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC

Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 14:44:44 +0000

Multiple other Iowa Polls are coming out even now and they all show Romney ahead.

CNN shows him up by 3.

The DMR Poll will be exposed as bogus.

By: Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC

Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 14:06:04 +0000

From the research I have been doing around the web, those who would know about these things are saying that there are many strange assumptions made in this poll, such as almost double the expected turnout and huge amounts of people switching party affiliation at the last minute.

By: Rick Moran

Rick Moran — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:27:37 +0000

Slim:

Fred’s only chance is a total meltdown by Huckabee. Judging by the fact that his support remained fairly steady despite his flailing around regarding Pakistan, the Huckster could get caught in bed with a $5 transvestite whore and his blind followers would still vote for him.

By: Rick Moran

Rick Moran — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:24:57 +0000

Dave:

Good analysis. I would only add that Obama has a pretty good ground game in Iowa himself. Edwards has organized labor handling his get out the vote organization and Hillary has spent a gazillion bucks on building a powerful statewide group - better than Romney’s. Forecast calls for Pt. cloudy and “cool.”

Plus, the DMR poll shows a whopping 60% of Democratic caucus goers could be first timers. If even 2/3 of those people show up, it’s Obama big.

By: daveinboca

daveinboca — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:17:28 +0000

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting opinion piece on how insanely complex the Democratic caucus rules are and if you link to my site, there are additional comments made by Democratic politicians about how much latitude for chicanery is inserted into the caucus rules.

John Edwards surged in â€˜04 as did Kerry and Edwards could pull off a squeaker as the rural precincts are over-represented in the caucus rules and JE has been LIVING in Iowa for most of the last two years.

The DRM poll might be off-base if it discounts the ginormous investments that Edwards & Clinton Inc have made compared to Obamaâ€™s merely populist activities. This may also be the reason that Romney pulls off a final victory, although the Republicansâ€™ rules are only a simple anonymous ballot procedure rather than the multi-step Dem process open to manipulation at each step.

Finally, if the weather is amenable, Obama might win. If it is stormy or hyper-frigid, then the well-organized Clinton & Edwards limo-busing activities kick in, especially in the frozen countryside.

Remember the Dems over-represent rural farm & county seat voters & Edwards has been to each Iowa county TWICE in the last two years.