It will be a media circus when General David Petreaus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker take their seats before the Senate Armed Services Committee today to give an update on progress in Iraq – from their point of view. The caveat is important because objective reality when it comes to Iraq is about as solid as a dish of warm jello. By any measurement, the place is still a mess – a hash of armed to the teeth militias, a still weak central government, an army of questionable fighting ability, a too long delayed reconciliation between the sects, and the ever present handprint of those merry mullahs in Tehran.
How all those ingredients are mixing together and what is emerging is a matter of dispute. You can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs but neither can you put a pig in a prom dress and expect people to compliment you on your choice of dates.
I have come to the inescapable conclusion that no one knows what is really happening in Iraq – including the Iraqis themselves. And that goes double for the United States government and triple for the anti-war left. If anyone did have a solid understanding of the reality of what is happening there both on the ground and in the subsurface strata made up of the perceptions, opinions, fears, hopes and dreams of the Iraqi people, a way forward would have revealed itself.
Instead, we get a multiplex spinorama from all parties. Hell, even the Iranians are spinning which tells you something about their understanding of the modern media. That little dog and pony show in Iran where a “cease fire” was reached between Moqtada al-Sadr and the Iraqi government is a perfect example of the learning curve of the Iranians when it comes to dealing with the western press. Mookie has the anti-war left convinced that he asked for the cease fire because he was beating up on the Iraqi army and wished to save civilians in Basra. The Iranians were very helpful in spinning this little fable as were several Iraqi politicians.
The problem, as we found out later was that Maliki agreed to no such cease fire and continued operations in Basra and has escalated his crackdown on the Mehdi Army in Baghdad:
Sharp fighting broke out in the Sadr City district of Baghdad on Sunday as American and Iraqi troops sought to control neighborhoods used by Shiite militias to fire rockets and mortars into the nearby Green Zone.But the operation failed to stop the attacks on the heavily fortified zone, headquarters for Iraq’s central government and the American Embassy here. By day’s end, at least two American soldiers had been killed and 17 wounded in the zone, one of the worst daily tolls for the American military in the most heavily protected part of Baghdad. Altogether, at least three American soldiers were killed and 31 wounded in attacks in Baghdad on Sunday, and at least 20 Iraqis were killed, mostly in Sadr City.
The heightened violence came on the eve of Congressional testimony in Washington by Gen. David H. Petraeus, the senior American commander in Iraq, and Ryan C. Crocker, the American ambassador here, to defend their strategy for political reconciliation and improved security in the country.
Mookie has made a habit over the years of unleashing his militia to engage the Americans (and this time, the Iraqi Army), getting a bloody nose (as in Najaf and Fallujah), and then grandiosely announcing that he is willing to talk peace thus raising his standing with the people as a reasonable sort of fellow who wants to play politics with Maliki.
The fact that this gambit worked beyond his wildest dreams with the US media and anti-war left when he lost 300-400 of his best fighters in Basra while fighting the Iraqi army is an astonishing testament to the myopia of the left with regards to any news coming out of Iraq. As J.D. Johannes said on my radio show last week (and has been repeated by many observers), the winner of a fight does not ask for a cease fire. The idea that Mookie requested an end to the fighting in Basra because he wanted to pull Maliki’s chestnuts out of the fire is silly, stupid, and worse, counterintuitive. What happened is a little more complicated.
According to Bill Roggio, some cowboy politicians from Maliki’s Dawa party journeyed to Iran (without authorization from the government) and asked the Iranians to get Sadr to stop fighting. Sadr released his 9 point statement demanding the government withdraw from Basra, stop targeting his forces, and release prisoners.
The left celebrated Mookie’s forbearance while completely ignoring one glaring fact; Maliki never authorized the overture in the first place and secondly, he rejected Sadr’s 9 points outright:
Just as the Iraqi security forces began to address the shortcoming in the operation and the situation in the center-south began to stabilize, Sadr decided to pull his fighters off the streets. Members of Maliki’s Dawa political party approached the leader of Iran’s Qods Force asking him to get Sadr to stop the fighting. Shortly afterward, Sadr ordered his troops to withdraw from fighting and issued a nine-point statement of demands for the Iraqi government.By this time, the Mahdi Army took significant casualties in Basrah, Baghdad, and the greater South. “Security forces killed more than 200 gunmen, wounded 700, and arrested 300 others, since the beginning of the military operations in Basrah,” said Major General Abdul Kareem Khalaf, the director of operations for the Ministry of the Interior. The Mahdi Army suffered 173 killed in Baghdad during the six days of fighting.
Spokesmen from the Mahdi Army claimed the Maliki government agreed to Sadr’s terms, which included ending operations against the Mahdi Army, but the Iraqi government denies this. “I refuse to negotiate with the outlaws,” Maliki said on April 3. “I did not sign any deal.”
The fact that operations continue in Basra gives to the lie to the idea that Maliki agreed to anything.
Meanwhile, Maliki got busy on the political front and lined up an impressive coalition of parties, sects, factions, and personalities to demand that Sadr disarm.
The position of Hojatoleslam al-Sadr, whose fighters fought government forces to a standstill in Basra, was looking precarious. His former erstwhile ally Nouri al-Maliki, the Shia Prime Minister who personally led the Basra crackdown, saw his standing bolstered by his tough approach to the militias.Despite the inconclusive results of his Basra offensive, Mr al-Maliki has refused to back down and this weekend stitched together a rare consensus of Kurds, Sunnis and Shias to back a law banning from future elections any party that maintains a militia.
That united stance has put the Sadrists on the back foot, and support for the militia was waning even in Sadr City itself as official forces pushed ever deeper into al-Mahdi Army territory.
No, the Iraqi Army still did not perform very well in Basra. There were defections (nowhere near 1,000 as reported), there was greenness, there was a lack of coordination, there was confusion and there was a lack of battlefield leadership. But as Roggio points out, the army did much better elsewhere in the south and is doing just fine in Baghdad (with Americans backing them up). Call it a mixed bag with causes for both concern and optimism.
Sounds like the testimony that Petreaus is going to give today.
In a reprise of their testimony last September, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker plan to tell Congress today and tomorrow that security has improved in Iraq and that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has taken steps toward political reconciliation and economic stability.But unlike in September, when that news was fresh and the administration said a corner had been turned, even some of the war’s strongest supporters in Congress have grown impatient and frustrated. Petraeus, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, and Crocker will face many lawmakers who had expected more by now and who are wondering whether any real change will occur before the clock runs out on the Bush administration.
And that, my friends, is the problem in a nutshell. Petreaus will pretty much give a rehash of his September testimony, pointing to incremental improvements since that time, but the fact is he doesn’t know a way forward that would bring the bulk of American forces home except continuing current strategies and policies.
This may be fine and dandy for some. But the majority of the Congress – including Republicans – are finding that a bitter pill to swallow:
“I think all of us realize we’re disappointed at where we are,” Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said at a hearing last week. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) asked, “How do we get out of this mess?” While the cost in U.S. lives and money increases, said another senior GOP senator, who spoke on the condition of anonymity: “We cannot . . . just say we’re coasting through and waiting for the next president.”Among the questions these and other lawmakers said they plan to ask Petraeus and Crocker is why the United States is still paying for Iraqi domestic needs ranging from military training to garbage pickup when the Maliki government has $30 billion in reserves—held in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland—as well as $10 billion in a development fund, significant budgetary surpluses from previous years and a projected 7 percent economic growth rate for 2008.
Sen. Carl M. Levin (D-Mich.), chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and Sen. John W. Warner (Va.), the panel’s ranking Republican, who projected that Iraqi oil income would reach $56.4 billion this year, asked the Government Accountability Office last month to investigate how much money the Iraqi government has.
“I think it’s a very significant issue that has not had sufficient exposure,” Levin said in an interview. “They’re perfectly content to watch us spend our money while they build up these huge cash reserves from oil windfalls. It’s a real stick in our eye, as far as I’m concerned.”
Despite Maliki’s recent success in pulling together society to call for Sadr’s evisceration, the effect will probably be transitory. The factions and sects are not going to break out into songs of brotherhood and sit down to hammer out the details of meaningful reconciliation. They can barely stand being in the same room together. Self-interest will eventually prevail and some kind of modus vivendi will emerge. But if anyone thinks that such a goal can be achieved in the next year or two, they are kidding themselves.
As I said at the top, no one really knows what is actually happening in Iraq. And because of that, we look at the good news about al-Sadr’s imminent demise as some kind of breakthrough moment in the history of post-Saddam Iraq. I’m sorry but history doesn’t work that way. Only the passage of time will prove out that theory.
And time is something the American people and Congress are not likely to grant the Iraqis who are struggling to re-invent their fractured society with guns and bombs still going off on a regular basis.
9:10 am
I believe that al-Sadr’s stunning announcement that he will disband his Mahdi Militia if the central Shia council tells him to should be taken at face value, at least for the short term.
But you have to remember why al-Sadr is in Iran .. to get his cleric credentials .. so he can eventually replace the Shia council’s leadership with his own .. and .. then use the Shia council to reestablish the Mahdi Army .. without the interference of the aging al-Sistani.
Will it work ? Only time will tell. It’s quite possible that Iraq will move beyond the need for al-Sadr before he can make it work.
Meanwhile, Iran is supposely still “working on” the manifestation of the “12th iman” to do much the same, but without a toady like al-Sadr.
9:24 am
Why Iraq troop drawdown is likely to stop in July…
Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker will describe Iraq’s fragile state this week on Capi…
9:45 am
Petraeus engages the enemy (er, Congress…)...
As you no doubt know, General Petraeus is back in Washington for more testimony. I wonder if Hillary will need another “willing suspension of disbelief” to listen to him.
The four-star general in charge of Iraq wants more time in a war tha…
10:14 am
Hi Rick,
You seem to be changing your stance on what happened the last two weeks. Earlier you stated that we and the IA were defeated in Basra and there would be an uprising of the Mahdi army. Now you claim that you do not know what is transpiring in Iraq.Next time don’t be too quick to let your bias get in the way of insightful analysis and clear thinking.
Also don’t be too quick to say that the American public has lose patience with Patraeus.
You are correct that I have altered my stance on what transpired in Basra although I don’t think I ever said anything in quite so stark terms.
As far as analysis, you go with what information you have. I try to get as many sources as possible outside the media including embeds and the like. In that respect, Bill Roggio at the time was also pessimistic – and that was coming from his sources in Iraq.
So I make no excuses. Blogging is all about giving your opinion and waiting for all the information to emerge takes weeks even months. At that point, no one really wants to read what you have to say.
I think the polls on Iraq pretty much speak for themselves. Support for the war may be increasing but the number of people who want the troops home has remained steady.
ed.
11:50 am
I don’t believe Al-Sadr is going away anytime soon because Iran realizes his value which means they will keep funneling money and arms to his militia. He doesn’t even need to beat us (or the Iraq army) to win; create violence and destabilization (even temporary) which in turn is picked up by the press as evidence of our inability to control the situation and pull back with another cease fire. While he is not actually winning, this pattern will wear down the American people who I doubt will tolerate another 5 years of 150k troops deployed overseas. The sad part is given enough time we can win but does anyone think the American public is willing to tough out another 5 years of occupation that will potentially costs us a trillion dollars? Our enemies know this so all they have to do is bleed us slowly.
6:49 pm
So what now? Pull out? Give Iraq a time table that the NYTs will leak so that the Islamofascists know when we will be leaving?
I watched the dog and pony show today. I was sickened by the Democrats, and yes, some Republicans, crying over the cost of the most important war in this nation’s history. Perhaps if the Democrats have had some change in heart about their careless spending and treating taxpayer dollars like Monopoly money they could have agreed to a one year moratorium on pork spending. But nooooooo, that is too damn easy. And yes, I realize that $17 billion (for this year) is a small drop in the bucket, but it would have been a start.
So we pull out? What then? Which of the Democrats have the answer to that? Will AQ follow us back home with our open border policies? Will we see a repeat of 9-11 only this time Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles or Milwaukee? Will there be a repeat of the disaster that we left called Vietnam? How many boat people will we see then? How many have to be killed in Iraq by Muslim fundamentalist before we can then claim another genocide?
Barbara Boxer went on and on and on about how Imjustajollyjihad from Iran kissed Maliki on both cheeks. Five years after fighting in the Middle East and she still doesn’t have a clue about Middle Eastern culture. All she knows is how to make political points by trying to make General Petraeus look bad.
So we pull out. Then what? Will all the jihadists just go back to their carts, goat farms, shops? Will they decide that since we have left, there is no more need to try to kill us?
Prior to entering the war in Iraq, Joe Biden said that we would be there at least ten years, maybe longer. Now he is demanding to know when we will leave. I guess no one told Joe that this war is not going to end anytime soon since it has been in the works since September 11, 1683.
This war is not going to end anytime soon. The terrorist possess one thing the North Vietnamese possessed, patience, something our American politicians seen to have little knowledge of. We will fight the terrorists for the rest of our lives and our children will probably have to pick it up when we are gone.
Maybe Carl Levin can get AQ to come to Washington to testify. Maybe he can ask them how long they intend to try to kill Americans, both in Iraq and here at home. Maybe he should demand to know how much they spend so that he can make sure that they are not outspending us. Or maybe he could go to Iran and ask that nation how long it intends to train and arm the terrorists our military is trying to eliminate.
7:16 pm
[...] Rick Moran makes some interesting points about Iraq, [...]
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[...] what some other folks say. Rick Moran, the brother of ABC News anchor/reporter Terry Moran, has an insightful look at the situation in Iraq. I have come to the inescapable conclusion that no one knows what is really happening in [...]
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[...] what some other folks say. Rick Moran, the brother of ABC News anchor/reporter Terry Moran, has an insightful look at the situation in Iraq. I have come to the inescapable conclusion that no one knows what is really happening in [...]
7:17 am
[...] what some other folks say. Rick Moran, the brother of ABC News anchor/reporter Terry Moran, has an insightful look at the situation in Iraq. I have come to the inescapable conclusion that no one knows what is really happening in [...]
7:19 am
[...] what some other folks say. Rick Moran, the brother of ABC News anchor/reporter Terry Moran, has an insightful look at the situation in Iraq. I have come to the inescapable conclusion that no one knows what is really happening in [...]
10:23 am
[...] Right Wing Nut House, “Progress In Iraq a Tough Sell for Petreaus” [...]
12:03 pm
If you haven’t figured out by now that obscenities are not allowed on this website, one must conclude you were either dropped on your head as a child or more likely, do not have the vocabulary to express yourself any other way.
Suggestion; get yourself a dictionary and write a comment without the expletives and as long as it is germane to the post, it will be published.
12:28 pm
[...] Progress In Iraq a Tough Sell for Petreaus Right Wing Nut House [...]
6:35 am
[...] Progress In Iraq a Tough Sell for Petreaus Right Wing Nut House [...]
7:30 am
I look at our own history, the bloody battles fought for decades; I have no expectations that nations such as Iraq will all of the sudden behave in perfect harmony, particulary when our own Nation after 200 plus years must still fend off tyranny.
America has been fighting against Collectivist tyranny for well over a century despite the endless horrors of Nazism, Stalinism, Marxism and every other Collective madness set upon free people yet we still must fight daily; take a look at how many Collectivist tyrannts in our own Nation have done everything they can to insure a defeat in Iraq.
As Reagan pointed out:
“Freedom is a fragile thing and is never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation, for it comes only once to a people. Those who have known freedom, and then lost it, have never known it again”
The hunger for instant gratification can never be completely satisified because it is hollow fulfillment; in other words the wars against Collectivist tyranny and their ally Islamic Jihad will be fought far longer than my time on this earth just as long as our forefathers fought these enemies in the past.
6:23 am
The disrespect shown to the General by those on the left was just stunning.
It is obvious they don’t like or respect our military. Not one of them had any good things to say and its scary to think one of em may be our next Commander in Chief, good Lord, help us all and deliver us from evil.
4:00 am
[...] an update on progress in Iraq ?? from their point of view. The caveat is important because objecthttp://rightwingnuthouse.com/archives/2008/04/08/progress-in-iraq-a-tough-sell-for-petreaus/3,500 US troops set to leave Iraq in the coming weeks AP via Yahoo! News About 3,500 American [...]