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7/31/2008
McCAIN CAMPAIGN STILL FOUNDERING

Several weeks ago, the McCain campaign reinvented itself by sloughing off some deadwood, replacing incompetents with pros from the Bush-Cheney team of 2004, and overall, tried to bring a sense of order out of the chaos.

McCain brought in proven winner, Steve Schmidt, to ride herd on the new outfit and tighten up message delivery which had become so scattershot that Republican politicos warned the candidate that he risked everything unless some discipline was applied to the process of organizing and promoting what the candidate was trying to accomplish.

So far, the results are very mixed. There are signs that the campaign is indeed more organized, more focused especially in developing a coherent set of issues that resonate with the voters.

But the message machine is still broken – especially when the McCain team goes on the attack.

Marc Ambinder talked to former McCain campaign confidante John Weaver who was not impressed by the campaign’s latest efforts in going after Obama:

With the release today of a McCain television ad blasting Obama for celebrity preening while gas prices rise, and a memo that accuses Obama of putting his own aggrandizement before the country, Weaver said he’s had “enough.”

The ad’s premise, he said, is “childish.”

“John’s been a celebrity ever since he was shot down,” Weaver said. “Whatever that means. And I recall Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush going overseas and all those waving American flags.”

Weaver remains in contact with senior McCain strategists and, for a while early this year, regularly talked to McCain.

The strategy of driving up Obama’s negatives “reduces McCain on the stage,” Weaver said.

“For McCain to win in such troubled times, he needs to begin telling the American people how he intends to lead us. That McCain exists. He can inspire the country to greatness.”

He added: “There is legitimate mockery of a political campaign now, and it isn’t at Obama’s. For McCain’s sake, this tomfoolery needs to stop.”


I saw the ad and wondered, wtf? What does Brittney Spears have to do with presidential politics? The ad seemed petulant, as if the candidate were complaining that it was unfair that Obama was more popular than McCain.

Childish indeed.

I’m sorry, but there’s just no other way to put it; McCain’s campaign is still foundering, sinking slowly beneath the waves as the Good Ship Obama’s wake continues to slosh over the gunnwales on its way by.

What is the number one issue on people’s minds these days? The price of fuel outstrips everything else in importance. Not only do gas prices speak to people’s fears for the future but energy dominates the voter’s own perception of their economic well being. Every single day, we should hear from the McCain campaign a single, boring, refrain; just drill, baby! The polls show overwhelming support for doing just that. Obama is on the wrong side of that divide and has in fact, led with his chin on this issue on a number of occasions begging McCain to knock his block off and score big.

Case in point, Obama now tells people to keep their tire pressure up and everything will be just fine:

There are things you can do individually, though, to save energy. Making sure your tires are properly inflated — simple thing. But we could save all the oil that they’re talking about getting off drilling — if everybody was just inflating their tires? And getting regular tune-ups? You’d actually save just as much!

Ed Morrissey tears into this simple minded sophistry with relish:
Er, no it couldn’t. The Green River oil shale formation could produce at least 800 billion barrels of oil alone, enough for over 100 years at our current rate of consumption (20 million barrels per day). Would inflating our tires eliminate every single drop of oil we use? Of course not! Nor would it save any significant amount at all. Tire inflation could improve gas mileage by about 3%, which would relate to about 600,000 barrels of oil a day at the most absurdly optimistic extrapolation.

Ed points out later that most cars made in the last 25 years don’t require a “tune-up” every 5,000 miles. Most manufacturers recommend a tune up every 100,000 miles.

But the point isn’t tune-ups and inflated tires. The point is getting more energy. And Obama and the Democrats are dead set against that. While everyone has figured out that drilling won’t completely solve the main problem of energy independence, it’s a nice stop gap measure and has the advantage of a relatively short turnaround time. It might take a decade for alternative energy sources to begin to make a dent in our oil usage. But the effects of drilling – if begun now – can be measured in months.

But we don’t hear this from the McCain camp. This should be the dominant message coming from the campaign. Instead, we get “Obama the celebrity” or “Out of touch Obama” which is a silly claim to make from a guy who can’t even operate a personal computer.

The Fix interviewed several GOP strategists who seem less than impressed with the way the campaign’s message is being delivered:

Sigh,” emailed one senior party strategist who later added: “Every Obama ad since his announcement has fit nicely into a theme, an argument. McCain ads are just catch as catch can, one wild swing at Obama after another. Their increasing bitterness reflects a campaign that is more about some sort of therapeutic frustration venting for the staff than any coherent strategy to elect McCain. It’s unprofessional to the core.”

Another high-level party operative grumbled: “It seems like they are talking to the press pack, not voters.”


That first critique may be a bit harsh but it speaks to the confusion the campaign is experiencing in trying to figure a way to dent Obama’s armor. Right now, the playing field is still wildly tilted in Obama’s favor – partially because many voters still see him as the agent of change and partly because despite some questions being raised by the media lately, Obama still enjoys overwhelming press support – so much so that while Obama’s press was outstanding on his recent trip abroad, the candidate received a dead cat bounce in the polls. The race is where it was before the trip even happened.

This may sound like good news for McCain except he doesn’t appear capable in taking advantage of it. It is Obama who is his own worst enemy and it looks like it will continue to be that way:

Obama seems to have everything going for him. A fresh face. A smooth, cadenced speaking style suited for TV. A message of change at a time when Americans historically favor change, after one party holds the White House for two terms. And after several convictions of GOP legislators.

Obama’s got tons of money. An attractive family. Energized followers. A media that’s curious about the new guy and tired of….

...the dogged old POW one. High gas prices, a poor housing market, a two-front war ongoing and a slightly sagging economy, all of which should help political challengers. Not to mention an unpopular incumbent president.

A lead’s a lead, but political strategists are puzzled.


As many analysts have been saying for months, the race is Obama’s to lose. But those analysts didn’t take into account such a feeble effort coming from the McCain campaign. McCain has to do something positive, say something about the future rather than these constant “gotcha” charges that only play into Obama’s “new politics” theme and his contention that McCain is part of the old way of doing things.

Can the ship be righted in time to catch and defeat Obama? I am guessing not. The problem is apparently partly due to McCain himself:

Sen. John McCain last week delivered one of his sharpest critiques yet of Sen. Barack Obama’s Iraq policies, carefully reading a prepared speech that accused his Democratic rival of failing the commander-in-chief test and promoting ideas that would force American troops to “retreat under fire.”

But just hours after his crisp performance, the Republican presidential candidate blurred his own message with an offhand comment to a television interviewer that Obama’s proposal for a 16-month time frame for removing combat troops from Iraq might be a “pretty good timetable.” That seemed to run counter to his attempts to cast Obama as naive on foreign policy, and it sent his aides scrambling.


And there you have the McCain campaign in a nutshell. For a former military officer, McCain appears to lack the discipline necessary to win the race.

It may come to walling McCain off from the press – fewer avails and press conferences. But whatever is done must be done quickly. Time is running out and the Obama campaign is too smart, too well funded, and too motivated to allow for the kind of weak, unfocused attacks on him that the McCain camp has tried this past fortnight.

By: Rick Moran at 11:50 am
22 Responses to “McCAIN CAMPAIGN STILL FOUNDERING”
  1. 1
    Neo Said:
    12:06 pm 

    Consider the other “celeb,” Paris Hilton. She is famous for being famous with absolutely no accomplishments to her name, except possibly continuing to be a “celeb.”

    Does that some like somebody else …

    Please, show me something this guy ever did that was not done in a calculated fashion to create and advance his own personal narrative? Something selfless, perhaps, just because it was the right thing to do?
    Every person I have talked to who worked at the Law Review at Harvard with him, or in the later part of his career, said the same thing: he was arrogant and self-centered. One person laughed, saying Obama wanted to be King of the World, that he was always running for something, never staying in one place long enough to amass accomplishments or be held accountable.

  2. 2
    ParisParamus Said:
    1:09 pm 

    This is yet another reason to chose Romney (assuming McCain has the openmindedness and clarity to understand that he needs some help to assure victory). Can you really imagine Ms. Palin or Mr. Pawlenty quickly ramping up to be effective spokesperson for McCain? None of the other “options” has Romney’s talents, or is anywhere near ready to go. For the campaign, perhaps even more than the actual job, there is no time for on-the-job training!

    PP/AskParisParamus@gmail.com

  3. 3
    Michael B. Said:
    1:14 pm 

    I agree that the “drill, drill, drill” message is a winning campaign theme. However, I disagree that is the sole ticket to success.

    I readily admit that McCain is one of the weakest conservative candidates we’ve ever had (although Dole may have been weaker). But I believe that what is keeping him in the race is the public’s fear of his inexperience and liberalism- and this must be exploited with attack ads. It is naive (of everybody, but especially McCain) to think that he can win with a “clean” campaign. He needs to hit him hard and frequently, and if that seems disjointed to you, I would argue that it is a multi-faceted strategy.

    The other thing that is keeping him in the race is the simple fact that race IS an issue, and Barrack can thank his homey’s like Ludicris for making white Americans reluctant to pull the lever for a black man. I’m not saying that its right, I’m just saying that it is a fact. The worst thing that McCain could do is to come near the issue. BO’s team knows that, which is why they attempt to twist anything said into a racist comment.

    I am not naive or deluded, because I know it could go either way, but… I think McCain will win comfortably. I’ll link to this archive on November 5th and either gloat or eat crow.

  4. 4
    Chuck Tucson Said:
    1:29 pm 

    “While everyone has figured out that drilling won’t completely solve the main problem of energy independence, ...”

    Right. The only thing that will solve this problem is investment in alternative energy.

    “... it’s a nice stop gap measure and has the advantage of a relatively short turnaround time.”

    Clever use of the word “relative”. Misleading at best.

    ” It might take a decade for alternative energy sources to begin to make a dent in our oil usage.”

    Your friend Jimmy Carter is probably rolling in his grave right now. What a pathetic wuss.

    ” But the effects of drilling – if begun now – can be measured in months.”

    You’re talking about a speculative overall price change that will amount to nothing in the end. The problem is really the value of the dollar, but heaven forbid we should actually talk about that.

    The most interesting part of this to me is conservatives calling themselves conservative. I’ve seen absolutely nothing to suggest conservation of any kind by so called conservatives. Nothing.

    If people conserve by choice, they’re given labels. “Tree hugger,” “Activist,” or “Hippie Scumbag.” If they conserve because, well, there is no other option, then they’re being sensible.

    If anything, there’s a ton of spouting off about nobody telling me I have to turn down my thermostat, or drive less, or have less excess. “I’ll do that when and where I please” is the motto of modern so-called conservatives.

    The ONLY thing that can cause positive change is when oil prices truly affect people’s wallets. Pain at the pump is the thing that will free us of our minimal dependence on foreign oil, not pumping more oil. Furthermore what incentive would an oil company have to drill more anyway? They are making money hand over fist as it is by raising prices when they feel they need to.

  5. 5
    michael reynolds Said:
    1:37 pm 

    McCain’s inability to get his campaign together undercuts his message of executive competence. If he can’t run a campaign—and he went bankrupt in the primaries before getting to this new level of weird—how can he run a superpower?

    Obama’s put together a machine that rolled over the Clintons. He came from nowhere to beat the establishment. McCain started far out ahead and barely beat a guy who thinks the Flintstones was a documentary. Seriously, if you owned, let’s say a Silicon Valley start-up, and you were looking for a CEO, which of these two would you hire? For that matter, if you owned a Dodge dealership.

  6. 6
    Kent Said:
    1:53 pm 

    Best damned analysis and copmparison of the two campaigns I’ve read in weeks. I continually found myself nodding my head and muttering an emphatic “Spot on!” or “BULLSEYE!” throughout.

    I’ve only just now stumbled across this site, via a link from Michelle Malkin’s. I’ll be coming back regularly from this point forward, however.

    Again: top notch analysis. Kudos.

    Thanks. Bring a date.

    ed.

  7. 7
    keithcd Said:
    1:54 pm 

    Rick, I’m right there with you. It seems like he has ready made issues (energy, taxes etc.) to define the differences yet he fails to execute. Its like a kid’s playground. He just resorts to name calling.

    His ability to deliver the message is part of the problem. The audience contrasts his style with the Messiah’s and big Mac comes off second best. Not much can be done about that though.

  8. 8
    jambrowski Said:
    1:58 pm 

    it almost seems as if his campaign is being sabotaged from the inside. they appear to be their own worst enemy.

  9. 9
    Drongo Said:
    2:24 pm 

    “It may come to walling McCain off from the press – fewer avails and press conferences.”

    Your endorsements are getting better and better. The best way to get McCain elected is to keep him locked up quietly so he can’t screw things up any more. You should work for his campaign office.

    (And yes, I know you aren’t endorsing McCain, just slating Obama).

    “But just hours after his crisp performance, the Republican presidential candidate blurred his own message with an offhand comment to a television interviewer that Obama’s proposal for a 16-month time frame for removing combat troops from Iraq might be a “pretty good timetable.” That seemed to run counter to his attempts to cast Obama as naive on foreign policy, and it sent his aides scrambling.”

    He could easily have meant that as “If we wanted a timetable then that would be a good one, but we don’t because…[insert standard ‘they’ll wait us out’ argument]” or “Yes, having an internal timetable for planning purposes might be a good idea, and that would be a fair one but we mustn’t tell the Iraqis because…”. It may be poor politics if you are running a stupid campaign about relative patriotism and America love, but it is good behaviour to change your position if the facts change.

  10. 10
    Nikolay Said:
    2:29 pm 

    But the effects of drilling – if begun now – can be measured in months

    Then why all the competent people say otherwise? I.e. it will be about a decade before drilling will have any effect, and even then it will lower the prices for about 0.5%? Is it because they are in fact incompetent shills??

    “Months” as in 17-20 months for some of the fields on land and 30-36 months in the Gulf and the Atlantic shelf.

    They are not incompetent shills. But when one group of people who actually drill for oil say one thing and the “experts” say another, who you gonna believe?

  11. 11
    Aiala Said:
    2:46 pm 

    Sigh…
    I really wish Mr. McCain’s campaign would get its act together. Is this another case of a metastasized clot of “handlers” ruining everything? Somehow they’re managing to make McCain look like a bewildered fud. Unless, of course, he IS one, in which case we are completely scrued.
    I’m still inclined to vote for John (the alternatives are too frightful to contemplate) but if he taps Romney for VP, forget it. I’ll hang myself before I ever pull the lever for any ticket containing that unctuous phony plastic Count Chocula clone.

    A

    P.S. I only recently found your blog, and it’s really most enjoyable. Thanks!

  12. 12
    Dale Said:
    3:21 pm 

    I must admit 1 thing: The Obama campaign is right about McCain being Bush III. They have no coherant message, are too concerned about being “mean”, and they have no concept of the salemanship aspect of the American polical scene. I would prefer to see McCain elected, but he is lacking in understanding how Americans think.

    He is making the assumption that Americans see his vast difference in experience over Obama so as to not need to attack him effectively.

    He is making the same mistake Gore made in ‘00: he assumes that he is so better prepared for the job that he doesn’t need to make that case to the public.

  13. 13
    Neo Said:
    4:46 pm 

    By reading the stuff about this ad, one would think that McCain had used voodoo to pluck out the eyes of Obama or raped his children.

    And this stuff about it being “racist” .. amazing. By this measure, Rev. Wright is the devil himself.

    This is a fairly mild ad that really hit the spot. It’s pretty obvious by the reaction that Obama must be bleeding .. votes.

  14. 14
    Neo Said:
    4:54 pm 

    I wonder what the reaction would have been if McCain had used Michael Jackson and OJ Simpson as the “celebs” ?

  15. 15
    Bill Arnold Said:
    6:34 pm 

    Consider the other “celeb,” Paris Hilton. She is famous for being famous with absolutely no accomplishments to her name, except possibly continuing to be a “celeb.”
    She’s otherwise known as the single best argument against the repeal of the estate tax.
    Also, the Hilton family is strongly Republican and is reportedly unhappy with this ad.
    This was a very confused ad, from the campaign of a man who wears $520 dollar loafers. (Nordstrom’s price, I checked)

  16. 16
    Bill Arnold Said:
    6:39 pm 

    Then why all the competent people say otherwise? I.e. it will be about a decade before drilling will have any effect, and even then it will lower the prices for about 0.5%? Is it because they are in fact incompetent shills??

    Perhaps the argument involves oil futures, which can extend to the time when drilling might actually have begin (with grossly optimistic estimates) to an impact. Also, keeping oil in the ground rather than pumping it is, or can be considered, a form of speculation.

    The real issue though is demand, especially from India and China. We (the U.S.) can’t control the demand growth.

  17. 17
    still liberal Said:
    7:20 pm 

    Picking through the verbage, the truth is quitely exposed. John McCain doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of being elected President. Bless his heart, McCain is very, very bad campaigner. While not PC to say, he comes across as just what he is: a grouchy old man. He, fairly or not, represents conservatism, which now has a 40 year track record of massive government spending and expansion, new record national debt levels, an economy no one trusts, and a “war” on terror that is no more winnable through military means than the “war” on poverty. The old chestnut of using the term liberal as a scary epithet now only works on the 28% idiotariat.

    Obama has correctly put his finger on the pulse of the electorate. We want change and it doesn’t really matter what the change is. That is why the tabla rasa Barack presents is perfect for this election cycle. What we have been through is so thoroughly discredited, we’ll take a flyer with someone whose major accomplishment is just not sounding like the village idiot when they speak.

  18. 18
    John Said:
    8:10 pm 

    Rick——There is part of me that agrees with you—-But the other part says that to even be heard, the cult of personalty that is driving the Obama campaign has to be punctured and this ad is a first good start at this—-On NR’s site there is one person’s report that this was the first ad this particular man’s wife would look at of McCain’s and she then went on to look at other McCain ads she had herethereto never been inclined to take an interest in—-hopefully a coordinated issues series will follow

  19. 19
    Chuck Said:
    11:30 pm 

    I find it frustrating that McCain cannot get it going. I can’t help but believe Obama is vulnerable right now and could be dethroned. As far as a negative campaign, I think it will be required. I’m not talking mean or tasteless but the only thing Obama really has going for him is his shiny image. No experience, no clear plan. McCain needs to tarnish that image a bit.

  20. 20
    John McCain Continues To Make A Mockery Of Civil Campaigning & A Fool Of Himself Pinged With:
    7:32 am 

    [...] Writes Rick Moran at Rightwing Nuthouse: “I saw the ad and wondered, wtf? What does Brittney Spears have to do with presidential politics? The ad seemed petulant, as if the candidate were complaining that it was unfair that Obama was more popular than McCain. [...]

  21. 21
    jambrowski Said:
    8:16 am 

    calling this a negative ad is trollop, or more nicely said bull plop. the media and obamessiah’s camp calling this negative is like the frying pan calling the skillet black. bho has had his surrogates (i.e., wes clark) spouting all kinds of negative and even slanderous things for months. instead of the media calling that negative they just run with it as fact. i think today’s and yesterdays polls are showing the media and us that american’s want to see mccain fight back, together with the pre-emptive race card obama is playing into mccain’s hand. i’ll be damned and i know many others that will definitely not vote for someone who says they WILL use my race against me, the BS flag has been thrown up.

  22. 22
    Drewsmom Said:
    8:40 am 

    Great post as usual Rick.
    I am not thrilled with this Rhino running but when I think about Obama getting into office I am really frightened.

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