Actually bush was ahead of kerry (just) in the polls at this point in 2004.

Chickens of the US…unite! Soon you will all be fodder for the Obmama Machine!

What surprises me, actually, is how well McCain is doing considering all the disadvantages arrayed against him - a perfect storm, if you will. There’s the economy, which will deliver the coup de grace, the damaged GoP brand thanks to Bush, blatant ageism, and the huge advantages Obama has in terms of money and organizing, not to mention a clear charisma advantage. Limbaugh and others are already complaining the impending loss is all because McCain is a moderate and failed to deliver the indy vote, but I think with a more traditional GoP candidate the party would be in a much worse position with clear Obama blowout instead of what we have now.

I therefore think the “base” is going to learn the wrong lesson from this election which risks the GoP going away like the whigs or remaining in the political desert for many years.

“Whenever I have ‘Obama’s gonna lose!’ vapors I look to the McCain camp. We may not be sure we’re going to win, but man they sure are sure they’re going to lose.”

Not only the most succinct comment I’ve seen about this “No, really, its a tie” whilrwind that sprang up in the last 24 hours, but also the most demonstrably valid.

There’s still dozens of potential fact patterns that lead to a McCain victory, ranging from “difficult-but-possible” to “divine intervention”. If the McCain campagn is sending out resumes and starting the “we lost because of XXX, which is not my fault” background backside covering . . . well, I have to assume they decided that keeping up a strong team image took a backseat to saving yourself.
Bailing on a campaign under these circumstances has to tar them professionally — if they’re willing to burn themselves just to make sure they have a way out they have to think the ship is going down, and just based on who they are and what they do I can’t see them spooking at rumors of weakness or a tough final stretch. ALL campaigns are brutal . . . that’s what these people consider their 9-to-5 environment. You don’t bail before the campaign’s over if you want to work in another campaign in the future. Man, there’s something they see that’s got to be even worse than the “liberal MSM propaganda” polling. I mean, Obama’s up, and up substantially, but not “Mount Everest unscalable heights” up.
They’d rather be known as fair-weather caimpaign staff than as bulldog-determinied soldiers. Not a good sign.

I had drafted an in-depth and thoughful reply to your negativity, but then I came to my senses and realized, you’re not open for discussion. You would simply ascribe my response to either being uninformed or politically biased. In other words: You have made up your mind, therefore case closed.

What a shame!

I hope you are wrong, but here is the reality as I see it. National Poll wise, I do believe the media will do anything to get this man elected. I think they would elect Satan if he was the right race. They want to make history because that would be le chique to them. You know conversation at the Upper East Side celebratory cocktail party and they could say they helped make it happen.

Anyways, my personal feelings aside. McCain is making gains in the national polls I do believe that, but how are those gains spread out regionally. Are they in key battle ground states that are a must win for McCain? Also will the state to state polling reflect this small surge from the national level in time for Mac to pull out a win, doubtful but possible.

I think the scenario will be this, McCain much closer in the popular vote than people expected but buried in the electoral college. The increase in popular vote is a must though. There is a small sliver that the two other prongs of the triumvirate of stupidity, Pelosi and Reid might start looking at how many people turned out against the “One” and realize that maybe there wasn’t a mandate. Probably not, in their minds the vote will just represent that 45-47% of America is just racist. After all that is the catch all these days.

The idea that Obama will be in some way lax on security issues is just nonsense. I feel far more secure about the US voting in an intelligent man rather than a frail one whose possible demise puts another idiot within a heartbeat of the Oval office.