Talk of a US war w/ Iran is silly because it would likely mean a crashed world economy, given that the Iranians will not go quietly in the night like Saddam did. They will shoot many, many missiles at Saudi and other Gulf oil sites, destroying vital petrol infrastructure in the process that would takes months or even years to bring back online. No amount of offshore drilling in the near term will replace that lost production, and oil prices would shoot through the roof to the tune of $7-9 dollars a gallon. Would the US economy survive that for very long?

China and Russia will gladly pay for the oil infrastructure Rick mentions is needed for the Iranians to succeed in the 21st Century. The last time I checked, we had little leverage with either country and in fact, the Chinese seem to own our debt and essentially have a check on our foreign policy, though neither Republicans or Democrats want to admit it.

Iran can get by on not joining the WTO or IMF because of that Russian and (especially) Chinese support. If Obama were somehow able to string together a coalition of Arab states, the EU and even India to oppose the Iranian regime with staunch sanctions, it would still mean little in the face of sustained Chinese and Russian support.

Obama (and Hillary) said in the campaign that he favored “tough diplomacy” over war. So do I. He’s on record favoring “soft power” and “smart power.” I favor them too.

So why are we now deploying “soft or smart power” options? A good start would be to put the case to the Security Council — can’t get much softer power than that — but what’s the use of the UN if you don’t go there when a theocratic fascist regime is murdering its own people in the streets?

Then, there is trade — not so much with the US, which has little, but with Europe and Asia, which have a lot. And Iran needs foreign investment, membership in the WTO, help from the IMF, etc.

The Russians just declared for Ahmadi. Did we do anything to persuade them not to do so? Do we have no leverage with the Russians? Aren’t there linkages to be found? The same for China and the Arab states.

Does Tehran only fear the US because we might bomb its nukes some day down the road or does it not have to worry at least a little that the US can find a dozen ways to keep the anti-regime pot boiling — if we really put our minds and some resources to the task?

Then, still well short of US attack or war, there is the possibility that the US could turn a blind eye to Israel taking action.

It’s simply preposterous to suggest that the US has no options except low-key mumbling or war.

In past decades, CIA could support the opposition with money, weapons, political influence (bribes), etc. But now, everybody with a cell phone can record video evidence of all that, and post it on YouTube in minutes. Those days are over, at least to the degree of the empowerment of the Shah, or the Contra’s of Nic.

As you rightly say, Iran must feel the consequence of their human and civil rights abuse. But quite honestly, for the first time, I feel Obama’s pain: there does not seem to be a good solution… I am a man of strong convictions, but I am also man enough to admit that I have no idea what to do here. I do not want to live under the threat of a nuclear Iran, run by a madman. On the other hand, I don’t want my 22 year old son manning checkpoints in Tehran.

Obama’s comments on this issue has been forced by the cold blodded killings on the ground - besides the Washington Times today reports that Obama sent a letter to Khameni before the elections

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jun/24/us-contacted-irans-ayatollah-before-election/?feat=home_cube_position1&page=2

What this shows is that Obama was nothing more than a wuss who was literally BEGGING the mullahs to behave better - “see, i sent you this nice letter and now i have not gone anywhere near Sarkozy or Merkel have in expressing condemnation, so please, please…. please dont make me outright condemn you !”

Andrew McCarthy at NRO has this jaw dropping article about how Obama HAS ALREADY released Iranian backed terrorists in exchange for the bodies of two British hostages who were kidnapped and killed ( Five American soldiers were killed by the same terror cell)

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ODFkYTU2MjBmMTE5MDUzZTEzZWMyMTE5ZWZjNWI4Mjg=

Rick, you have tried to honestly evaluate Obama’s position on Iran - kudos to you - but no matter how much lipstick you put on the Iranian pig, it still is a pig.

If anything, the regime will now work overtime to get its nuclear bomb ready - imagine the security and leverage that the regime would get once it has the bomb - it would be The Shia MIRROR IMAGE of Pakistan. If the cost of attacking Iran now is terrible, the cost of attacking a nuclear armed Iran would be inexplicable.

The more you try to delay the inevitable, the quicker it seems to happen - especially with war.

The Iranian regime has every reason to believe and logically so that should it survive the current crisis, its longevity is best guaranteed by nuclear weapons.

And from what we have seen in the last two weeks - first, the hastiness with which Khamenei declared Ahmedinejad to be the winner and second the forcefulness of his threat in the Friday sermons no less to any one who dares to protest shows that there is a new power center in Iran who has the backing of the military (the IRG) - and he happens to be their next President.

DinnerJacket has FORCED Khamenei to back him if Khamenei wants to keep the illusion of the sole Supreme leader going.

All I can say is that Netanyahu is the only man who has the balls to pull off what is needed - a total annhilation of their nuclear program.

BUT Obama is not going to allow Israeli planes to fly over Iraqi airspace - how the hell is Bibi going to counter this?

For more news on how brutally Iranian protestors were attacked and killed today, please read this

http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2009/06/iran-day-12-of-the-revolution.html

Pray for the brave people of Iran - they are fighting pure evil.

I don’t think WE should bomb Iran but I do think that Israel has the ability and the spine to do what we have the ability but no spine to do - bomb the hell out of the nuclear facilities for their own protection. At least that’s my call on the matter.

I do not ever believe in “negotiating” with a bully. I have encountered too many and the thing that works best is a good swift kick with a steel-toed boot to their “privates” - memorable and effective!