I can see why the President wanted the National Intelligence Estimate on Terrorism declassified: it gives a little context to the sensational conclusions that our anti-terror policy has created more terrorists and placed the United States in greater danger.
For instance; news reports never mentioned that the 16 agencies involved in compiling the NIE basically agree that democratization is the correct policy:
* Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qa’ida, could erode support for the jihadists.
Funny how that never made it into the Times. (AP either)
And then there’s this:
* If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives. Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit.
Also, the report makes clear that part of the problem has been a result of some of our success; that the reason the jihadists have become so diffuse is because we’ve taken away their main sanctuaries – although we may want to revisit that question in a year or so and see how Pakistan and Afghanistan are turning out.
I also found this interesting:
Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement:
1. Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness;
2. Iraq Jihad
3. The slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and
4. A pervasive Anti-US sentiment among most Muslims all of which jihadists exploit.
In other words, Iraq is only part of the reason for the growth of jihad. A large part to be sure. And a place where our intelligence people believe the next generation of terrorists are getting training and experience right now. But it kind of knocks the chocks from underneath the position that pulling out of Iraq (or not going into Iraq in the first place) would have made much difference.
One question not addressed by this or any other analysis I’ve ever seen is this; how many terrorist recruits were there after 9/11? After Madrid? After London or Bali or Egypt or any other successful attack?
Does a terrorist success breed more jihadists?
As long as we’re using common sense here, my answer to that; there are a lot of people who want to play with the winning team.
An interesting analysis would be if you could find out the number of recruits who signed up following the spectacular success of 9/11 and compare it to when we bombed the snot out of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and kicked Osama and Omar out. Would there be a significant difference? Would more oppressed, anti-US jihadists sign up after a Muslim defeat? Or would more recruits flock to al-Qaeda’s banner after a surge in Muslim pride following a 9/11 type attack?
No answers, of course. I’m just throwing the questions out there for discussion.
BTW - I don’t think the declassification of this report is going to stop the Democrats or the press from drawing whatever conclusions they wish. The narrative is pretty well set now and it will be very difficult to counter with what the report actually said. As we know, the report categorically did not say that going into Iraq was a mistake – which is something I’ve seen on more than one lefty website in the last couple of days. In fact, reading the entire report, it doesn’t even hint that. If anything, it makes that case that invasion and democratization of Iraq is a wash.
But the troubling aspect of the report to me is the continuing diffusion of jihadists and their spread in numbers and locations around the world. This does not bode well for tracking and capturing the bad guys unless we really start to get stronger international cooperation from other intelligence and police services.
Much to ponder in the reports contents. I’ll be interested to hear what some of our more thoughtful commenters (Andy!) have to say.
UPDATE: WAS THE LEAK POLITICALLY MOTIVATED?
You’re kidding, right?
The NIE was circulated last April. It takes a while to make it through the bureaucracy what with all the people that shouldn’t be seeing it getting a good look at it. Information is power in Washington and people who are continually judging their status in the bureaucratic hierarchy by who is in the know on some things and who isn’t make sure they see the conclusions of the NIE at the very least.
That said, I think it very likely that the partisans who first leaked the existence of the NIE were hoping to hold off until the middle of October before dumping it on the public. As it is, someone may have wanted to blunt any possible momentum the Republicans may have been generating since early this month and thought that now was as good a time as any.
President Bush is convinced:
Bush charged at the news conference that political opponents leaked select parts of the National Intelligence Estimate to media organizations last weekend “to create confusion in the minds of the American people” in the weeks before the Nov. 7 mid-term elections.“Somebody has taken it upon themselves to leak classified information for political purposes,” Bush said. “I think it’s a bad habit for our government to declassify every time there is a leak.”
Timing is everything in politics. We’ll see how the timing of the leak in this case plays itself out.
UPDATE II
Michelle Malkin wonders will our intel agencies ever get it when it comes to the historical hatred of the west by radical Muslims:
Putting aside how the outdated portions still refers to Zarqawi in the present tense, the big thing that strikes me about the key judgements is that they reflect a dhimmi, historically ignorant view of jihad more suited for the moonbat Left than our premier intelligence agencies.[snip]
Not a word about the 1,400-year-plus history of Islamic hostility to the West or Islamic imperialism from time immemorial or the Koran-inspired war on infidels—long, long before there was a United States and “pervasive anti-US sentiment.”
Remember what I said yesterday?
If our intelligence agencies are laboring under the moonbat illusion that Muslim hatred of the infidel West didn’t really start bubbling until the year 2003, we are really in deep, deep doo-doo.
Now I know we have some very smart and learned people working in our intelligence agencies. And I suspect that somewhere in that NIE - still classified for some reason – would be an analysis of historical/political roots of conflict between the Muslim world and the west. But Malkin has a point. Dumping this thing piecemeal on the public as first the leak from last weekend did and now the Administration scrambling to give a little more context doesn’t enlighten anyone. How do our agencies “count” jihadists in order to come up with the idea that their numbers are increasing as a result of the Iraq War? Why not Afghanistan as I asked above? Or because of their successes in the last few years?
Lots of questions and no good answers…
8:41 pm
The NIE: the sections the Times censored
In upholding its rich tradition of censorship and national-security-damaging disclosures, the New York Times this week tried again to dent the GOP. The Times cherry-picked a few bits and pieces of the classified National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) d…
8:46 pm
Putting the NIE Out to Pasture
Taking these two disparate issues together, and I find the whole issue rather distasteful. Between the leaks and counterleaks – followed by the declassification of portions of the NIE, we have not learned anything new about the situation in Iraq. How…
8:58 pm
Fox News All-star Charles Krauthammer explains the NIE to the faith-based red universe: ‘It makes perfect sense that Jihadis are increasing. You see when you attack the bad guys they are going to increase. This all part of the broader war on terror.’
Geese, in the reality based world you expect the bad guys to decrease when you attack them, if the opposite where the case it wouldn’t make much sense to attack them. Would it?
That’s your world class news organization?
9:02 pm
Excellent post. Today’s press conference with Presidents Bush and Karzai was the best I’ve seen in years. I’m blogging about it in the morning. The Presidents were on the mark explaining that it is not the war in Iraq generating jihadi terror, solely, but that democratic countries were under attack beginning long ago. Karzai was masterful in his crystalization of the merits of being on the offense against the enemy. You could have heard a pin drop when President Bush said he was declassifying the NIE document. The questioning journalist didn’t know what hit her.
9:31 pm
BREAKING: NIE Released
The DNI has just released the declassified key judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate. You can download the .pdf document by clicking here. I’ll have thoughts later. Update: The level of distortion by the media of NIE’s key judgments is…
9:48 pm
The NIE Report, The NY Times, And Carrying Water
The furor began a couple of days ago. Not having access to classified documents or classified sources, I declined to comment on the reporting of the NY Times and the Washington Post regarding the April National Intelligence Estimate. These papers
9:55 pm
A Chain Of Events
The Anchoress puts together what looks increasingly like a massive miscalculation on the part of the leakers of the National Intelligence Estimate and the Democrats who tried to use the highly misleading cherry-picked part that came out …
10:24 pm
Bush charged at the news conference that political opponents leaked select parts of the National Intelligence Estimate to media organizations last weekend “to create confusion in the minds of the American people†in the weeks before the Nov. 7 mid-term elections.
The POTUS (Bush) questions the timing. Hmm.
In any event, it’s good to see the declassified Key Findings section. (I do wonder how close it is to the original.)
11:26 pm
[...] Rightwing Nuthouse [...]
12:00 am
Answers to questions:
Moran: How do our agencies “count†jihadists in order to come up with the idea that their numbers are increasing as a result of the Iraq War?
A: The author of “The Journey of Jihad” explains that the Iraq war has created a new generation of Jihad that moved it from the fringes of the population to the mainstream.
Moran: Why not Afghanistan as I asked above?
A: Jihad is an Arab political movement and Afghanistan is obviously not Arab.
Moran: Or because of their successes in the last few years?
A: Again, it is Iraq that has been the impetus of the new generation of Jihad. Infidels invading an Arab nation is the motivator.
12:42 am
Rick: so much to say, so little time; it’s late and I have to go to bed soon, have a day job, but I’ll see what I can bang out real quick!
Leak: Politically motivated? Ah, yes; it’s so patentedly obvious; it’s really not open for discussion. President is not going to change any minds among the Leftists by Declassifying it anyhow, they made up their minds the day he was elected; he declassified it for his supporters; they’re the only ones he can reach anyhow.
PS: it’s appearing on Leftist Blogs now, that this has been Declassed, and it isn’t “bad†enough, that there is “another†NIE out there, being “sat†on by the President, that is solely focused on Iraq, and it’s ALL bad!
I strongly suspect that this is wishful thinking by Leftist Blogs and the Leftist press; my guess is that they’re getting vibes thru their rumormills, about the Classified Intel Report leaked by the WashPost & NYT two weeks ago, about the Al Anbar Province, written by that Marine Corps Intel Colonel (who’s a friend of mine, by the way…). Though it IS possible there is another NIE about Iraq sitting out there, I highly suspect I’m correct. IF there was a totally negative NIE about Iraq out there floating about the Intelligence Community, the anti-Bush/Rumsfield factions in the Pentagon would’ve already leaked it to the MSM, like they’ve done with this NIE, in an attempt to damage the President before the mid-term elections. Anyway, time will tell if I’m correct, or just swinging in the wind!
For the question of whether the Iraq War is causing an increase in Global Jihad, I have a rhetorical question:
a)Were we in Iraq, when 3000 people were killed in PA, VA, and NYC on 9/11?
b)Were we in Iraq, when the USS Cole was bombed, and 16 US Sailors murdered, and we were just lucky that the whole ship didn’t sink, killing hundreds?
c)Were we in Iraq, when the two AmEmbassies in East Africa were bombed, killing hundreds of innocent locals, and some 50 Americans?
d)Were we in Iraq, when the Khobar Towers were bombed in Saudi Arabia, killing scores there?
e)Were we in Iraq, when the attack on the WTC in 93 was initiated, and killed 6 and wounded people? Something that’s mentioned about that attack is that IF it had been successful, and that fact that it wasn’t was just an accident; but Ramzi Yousef’s plan was to topple the one tower, into the other, and bring them both down! IF that attack had been successful, it’s possible as many as 20,000 people would’ve been killed! Think about that! Were we in Iraq then?
f)Were we in Iraq when the same people planned the Bojinak airliner plot over in the Philippines, which if successful, would’ve killed as many as 3000+ people, in 1995?
g)Were we in Iraq, when Al Qaeda planned, and carried off the attack against our Peace Keepers in Somalia in 1993?
h)Please note, American troops, acting as Peace Keepers in Lebanon in 1983 and Somalia in 1993 were attacked and murdered.
i)Please also note, that America, protecting Muslim populations in Bosnia, in 1996 and in Kuwait in 1991, still was not good enough for the Jihadis, and we were still attacked and mudered, shortly after each event; so even protecting Muslims, from themselves, and their enemies, hasn’t been enough, to stop the Jihadis from attacking us and killing us!
Anyway Rick, if you can ask all the Leftists who oppose the Iraq War, and spout the meme that the Iraq War has CAUSED Jihadism, if you can ask them those questions, I’d be happy to listen to their answers!
Does a terrorist success breed more jihadists? Such as 9/11, etc.
I don’t know if anyone has ever done any in-depth analysis on this, and if so, it would be hard to quantify/put numbers on it!
But, it only makes logical sense, that the answer is Yes! Military recruitment in the US goes up, during/after “successful†Wars, such as the Gulf War, and also when we’re attacked, like 9/11. Those are historical facts; so it only makes sense, that that applies to them. I can’t imagine, under any scenario, which the Inverse is true; that Terrorist “success†causes the number of Jihadis to go down!
Remember, they declared war on us, not vice versa, and they view this as a War that will last decades, if not longer, whereas we are too stupid to realize that yet; so I doubt that any success has a negative impact on their recruiting!
As for this part of the NIE:
Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement:
1. Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness;
2. Iraq Jihad
3. The slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and
4. A pervasive Anti-US sentiment among most Muslims all of which jihadists exploit.
I would personally, based upon 30+ years experience in the Middle East, and as a Marine Intel Officer and Analyst/Specialist on Islamic Fundamentalism, the correct order of these is:
1. A pervasive Anti-US sentiment among most Muslims all of which jihadists exploit.
2. Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness;
3. The slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and
4. Iraq Jihad
Iraq is an excuse, given to them mainly by the Western Leftists, who they view as kindred spirits, and whose talking points they not only study, but use back at us, in propaganda audios/videos from Bin Laden/Zawahiri, and formerly Zarqawi, and now the new mouthpiece, the American Jihadi, Adnan Ghadan
When I first started traveling throughout the Middle East, in the last 1970’s, the Anti-Americanism was already there; the core issue was US support for the State of Israel, which in their view, the ONLY reason it exists, then, and today, is because of US economic and military support, and the support of the US Jewish community; which according to THEM, controls the US Government, the US Media, the US Banking Industry, Hollywood, etc.
Let me make this absolutely clear: THEY FIRMLY BELIEVE THIS! This is a firm as “truth†to them, as death and taxes are to us!
Anyway, the anti-Americanism was already there, and every single setback, every single act, every single event, is viewed as being manipulated, or caused to happen, by the US, via it’s Jewish masters! Again, in this respect, they’re a lot like the Looney Left in this country, and Europe, with the anti-Semitism!
Don’t forget, this goes at least back to WWII; the Arabs, specifically countries like Egypt, and people like the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, WHOLEHEARTEDLY thru their lot in with Nazi Germany and the Italian Fascists!
The Grand Mufti went to Germany, to help plan the Holocaust, which they now deny, in an irony of all ironies! From Tunisia, to Egypt, to Syria, to Iraq, to Palestine, Nazi Germany was the flavor of the day! The Grand Mufti helped form a Division of Muslim troops in the Balkans, to fight under the Nazi flag!
After WWII, it was short step from supporting Fascism, to alliances with the Soviet Union for Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Algeria, and post-Kaddafi, Libya!
From there, it is a short segue into Point #2; I really, in my entire career in the Middle East, never heard of such a thing as a “moderate†Imam on a Friday morning. Politically Correct Westerners will pooh-pooh this, and Muslims practicing TAQIYYAH will deny it; but for centuries, the pulpits of the Imams have been used to Islamicize, and preach Jihad, to generations of Muslims.
I presciently wrote about this very issue, 16 years ago, attempting to warn the Intel Community about the threat of increasing Jihadism, post the Gulf War.
Imams preach the glory days of Islam, from the pulpit, and a weekly basis on Friday mornings; the Glory that was the worldwide Islamic Caliphate, from the Pyrenees Mountains in Spain, to the sub-tropical jungles of West Africa, to the shores of Zanzibar in East Africa, to the Caucus Mountains in Central Asia, to the archipelago of the Philippine Islands!
The bygone Golden Empires of Al Andalus and the Alhambra in Granada, the Ottoman Caliphate, the blue city of Bukhara, the wonders of the Mughal Empire in India, and the Taj Mahal, to the conversion of the Hagia Sophia chuch into a Mosque in Istanbul, are events in Islamic history, that are inculcated into EVERY Muslim child, from the time they can read/write/attend Mosque!
Coupled with the inherent sense of superiority within Islam itself; the one “true†religion; the only true monotheistic religion; the only “revealed†religion; the only religion whose Holy Book has been unaltered, and unadulterated by Man, etc., and you have a “peopleâ€, Muslims, who arrogantly believe that THEY are the chosen ones, their religion proves it, but the past 700 years of History, since the Reconqista in Spain in 1492, has been TOTALLY against them!
They cannot, for the life of them, rationally rectify this painfully obvious dichotomy, and it has psychologically impacted an entire religion of people, and their behavior, for 700 years!
Point #3 is a “strawman†argument, thrown in there to satisfy the “PC†crowd with in the Intelligence Community!
Right thinking Muslims, don’t even believe in Democracy; not like we do in the West, anyhow. Al Qaeda itself makes that clear! Democracy is contrary to the teaching of Islam; the ONLY Democracy you will have, within a Sharia-controlled society, is what Allah gives you! End of story!
And with a Insha’allah (God Wills it), Bokra (Tomorrow), Ma’alesh (Never mind) mindset (IBM it is referred to by Westerners in the “knowâ€); especially among Sunnis, who completely believe in Allah’s Will, and predestination (they passed a law in the Jordanian Parliament a decade ago, outlawing spare tires in Automobiles, because to carry one, was thwarting the will of Allah!!), and you can see, that social, economic, and political reform is a chimera for Muslims; if Allah wanted them to have it, they would have it!
That’s how the Jihadis are callously and capriciously able to exploit scores of homicide bombers (Shaheed, i.e. “martysâ€); they don’t tell them, if you kill Americans/Apostates, we’ll pay you $10,000; they tell them your life is shit on this earth, and the ONLY chance you have for a better one, is kill yourself in the service of Jihad, and go to heaven, and have all the Houris (virgins) and Ghalims (prebubescent boys) and water and alcohol you can handle!
Here’s a prime example to use, when Leftist start the meme, like point #3 alludes too, that “poverty†causes “terrorismâ€, and the Muslims outrage against the US, and inspired the 9/11 plotters (despite the fact, that people like Muhammed Atta, and most of his fellow plotters, and most of the Jihadi middlemen, as well as leaders, are in fact, firmly entrenched in the Middle Eastern MIDDLE CLASS; university educated, middle class families and reputations, and homes, etc.
Anyway, here’s a piece of analysis, you’ll see now where else; name the Top 20 POOREST counties in the World:
1East Timor $ 500
2Somalia $ 500
3Sierra Leone $ 500
4Malawi $ 600
5Tanzania $ 600
6Burundi $ 600
7Congo, Republic of the $ 700
8Congo, Democratic Republic of the $ 700
9Comoros $ 700
10Eritrea $ 700
11Ethiopia $ 700
12Afghanistan $ 700
13Niger $ 800
14Yemen $ 800
15Madagascar $ 800
16Guinea-Bissau $ 800
17Zambia $ 800
18Kiribati $ 800
19Nigeria $ 900
20Mali $ 900
Now, go back, and tell me, which ones have produced Jihadis, and Homicide Bombers, and which one has citizens, that have attacked the US, and Western Europe, et. al??
I’ve pulled them out for you:
2Somalia $ 500
5Tanzania $ 600
12Afghanistan $ 700
14Yemen $ 800
What do those Four have in common, I wonder? Only one that I can think of……wait for it……ISLAM! Isn’t that interesting? How uncomfortable do you think that makes the Leftists feel???
Where are the homicide bombers from East Timor?? How about Sierra Leone? Were any of the 9/11 murderers from Madagascar? I’m sure there are people in Eritrea, who have grievances against the United States; how come they’re not blowing us up? What about Haiti, in our own backyard, the Caribbean? It’s not on this list, but we all know it’s an economic basket case? Where are the Haitian homicide bombers and plotters?
In fact, the ONLY Jihadis, to come out of our hemisphere, except for the “homegrowns†in Canada, and Johnny Taliban here, and the Malvo sniper guy, Padilla etc., have come from the two countries that have a Muslim minority community: Jamaica and Trinidad & Tabago!
So the Lefitst meme, that “poverty†(usually implied as being caused by the United States and Oil Companies) causes the Jihadies to hate and attack us, has just been totally deconstructed here!
If you know your history, and demographics, you’ll notice on that list, there are ARE some countries there, such as the Comoros, Malawi, Nigeria, etc., that DO have Muslim minority populations, or in the case of the Comoros, Muslim Majority populations!
That’s Correct! I NEVER said ALL Muslims, worldwide, in ALL countries, were Jihadis or “terroristsâ€! However, I will say, that EVERY “terrorist†attack, against us, since the Gulf War, EXCEPT for the Oklahoma City bombing done in 1995, WAS done by Jihadis/Muslims.
Does that make ALL Muslims “terrorist� Again, NO! But it makes the likelihood, that the next time there is a “terrorist†attack against American/Americans somewhere, that it is/are Jihadis/Muslims who carried it out!
Again Point #4 is one that we want them to have; if it wasn’t Iraq, it would be American support for Israel; which by the way, since we WEREN’T IN IRAQ, during Somalia, WTC ’93, Bojinka Plot, Khobar, etc., are the EXACT excuses that Ramzi Yousef and his uncle, Khaled Sheikh Muhammed used! Go research their testimony, over at the “Wikiâ€, and you’ll see!
And, if it wasn’t US support for Israel, it would be something else. Syed Qutb, the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, visited the US BEFORE Israel was founded, and decided he HATED the US, and Westerners, because we too crude, no class, to rough, too loud, too sexual, too new, to uncivilized!
They’d find any excuse, and seize it; which is something you cannot convince the apologetic Leftists, in this country, or Europe, to realize!
Finally, someone needs to explain to Americans, and the World, WHY Islam in general is the way it is, and why it is susceptible to the Jihadi mindset, and why it susceptible to Anti-Americanism/Anti-Western feelings and propaganda!
The short answer is again a Leftist meme, started decades ago by sympathetic, Leftist Historians in American & European Academia: THE CRUSADES!
That inaccurate meme has been so thoroughly deconstructed; it’s not even worth debating anymore!
If you want to see them deconstructed by a professional, here is a good place to start:
http://www.firstthings.com/ftissues/ft0506/articles/madden.html
As for me, based upon my own personal observations and experiences, these are the underlying factors; we have to take into account, which you’ll probably see nowhere else.
IF you go back, and look at the crucial time period, the Reconquista in Spain, and the crucial date of 1492 when the Christian and Muslim worldwide societies really began to diverge after Christian Spain finally defeated the last Muslim Emirate in Granada, and expelled all Muslims & Jews from Spain, there are several crucial things that differentiate the two competing Religious Societies:
Western Christian Societies underwent Two Major Transformative Events: Religious Reformation and Industrial Revolutions!
The times/dates were different for every major country, but in general, those two events took place in almost every major Christian power.
For Muslim Societies, the Reconquista in 1492 was the END of their golden ages; yes, there were brief flourishes in the Mughal Empire in India, and the Ottoman Empire, as well as some Central Asian flourishes; but in general, the Muslims societies, especially those most in constant contact with the west, and in closest geographical proximity, took the Reconquista, psychologically, very hard, and began Centuries of retrenchment, regression, suppression, and Devolution!
Religiously, the Council of Nicea in the 4th century, basically “unified” Christianity for hundreds of years until Henry VIII & Reformation etc. Granted, there were “exceptionsâ€, such as the Cathars/Albigensians, the whole Gnostic movement and the Dualists, such as the Bogomils, Manicheans, etc. But basically, the Catholic Church was pretty aggressive in stamping out dissent, and “heresiesâ€, and until Henry VIII and Martin Luther; it was pretty mono-theocratic!
Islam, if you now anything about the history of it at all, was the exact opposite! From the day that Muhammed died, Islam was a fractured religion! With no clear successor, the first schism appeared with the Shi’ites, and the Khajirits; two groups who did not want to follow Abu Bakr, Muhammed’s uncle and elected successor!
It went downhill from there, with literally hundreds of Sunni, Sufi, and Shi’ite sects, canonical schoos, etc., vying for control of Islam, and control of the message!
In other words, Christianity was unified for centuries, Islam was not, and has not, and never will be!
Additionally, another unifying factor for Christianity was that at it’s founding, Christianity was an oppressed religion! It was the new kid on the block; competing against its Jewish progenitors, and the big guys: Egyptian Pharaonic Religion; the Greek & Roman pagan religions, Mithraism, Zoroastrianism, Gnosticism, and even splits in its own ranks (prior to Nicea). Christian converts in Roman, use to have battles in the streets with followers of Mithraism, over meeting places and followers! Historically, Christianity was actually a dicey proposition for several centuries, and struggled to just survive, let alone spread. This “toughnessâ€, and ruthlessness, that helped it survive and grow, served it well, in its later struggles with Islam!
Islam on the other hand, came to being, really, at a time where there was a major Political and Military “vacuum†in the Middle East. The old Roman Empire had collapsed, the Byzantine Empire was weak; the Zoroastrian Empire was collapsing in Persia; Egypt was Christian, but a shadow of its former self, and most of the Middle East was devolving into city-state status!
Most people don’t realize, but in less than a hundred years from it’s founding by Muhammed in Mecca, Muslim armies had spread across the Middle East, North Africa, and out into Central Asia, Persia, India, and into Indonesia, and as far as the Philippines and East Africa!
Muslim armies crossed from Morocco, into Spain, and were at the Pyrenees, by 732AD! The growth rate was phenomenal, and too fast!
When things were going good for them, and they were expanding, or in a form of stasis, things were fine! When Muslim armies started to suffer their first defeats, and setbacks, in the 11th century, at the hands of the Mongols, THAT is what spawned the Salafiyyah movement, under Ibn Tamiyyah, that exists up until today, under Bin Laden and Al Qaeda
After the Reconquista, Christian societies came out of the so-called “dark ages”, and began a remarkable ascent, politically, religiously, economically, colonially; all of these evolving factors naturally caused the actual hold of the religion itself on society, to evolve, and weaken.
Obviously, this very weakening, those two Transformative events, Religious Reformation and Industrial Revolution, DID NOT occur at all, or only on a very limited scale/location (possibly Ataturk’s Turkey!), in Muslim Societies worldwide!
Without those two major societal transformative events, that is how today, you have a 1000+ year old Theological philosophy, Salafiyism, that believes it’s okay to cut people’s heads off, that still hold’s sway over a healthy minority of worldwide Muslim societies, and more disturbingly, a larger percentage of supporters and sympathizers worldwide!
1:05 am
There’s an additional Economic factor consider as well!
I once had a wise old Anthropology professor, at the American University of Cairo, ask our class, composed mostly of Egyptian students, how far they thought that Egypt/the Arab/Muslim worlds were “behind†the US?
There was some nervous laughter and glances, and then after some discussion, the Egyptian students agreed that Egypt/the Arab/Muslim worlds were about 150 years “behind†the West/America.
The professor then put this up on the board:
Islam: Ramadan: month long fast; loses also at least 5 weeks of economic productivity each year!
Anyone who knows anything about Islam, the custom of the Holy month of Fasting during Ramadan, and who has been to an Islamic country when they are actually in observance of Ramadan, will immediately know what the Professor was talking about!
They go on a 5 week holiday every year, mandated by their religion, and because they have to Fast all day, including liquids, and thus eat & sleep and fornicate at night, only, between sunset and sunrise, they lose 5 weeks per year, of Economic Productivity!
That’s amazing!
If you factor in the fact that since it’s founding, Islam has basically been around for 1400 years; and thus 5 weeks per year, you get a figure of 135 YEARS of lost economic productivity, and even cultural and societal and governmental as well, over the 1400 year course of Islamic History!
Not far off, from those Egyptian’s students “guessâ€, all those years ago!
2:53 am
Bush/Karzai: Better Than Watching “The View”
Here’s a link to the Sept. 26 press conference at the White House, starring George Bush and Hamid Karzai as: The President of Afghanistan. ... I can almost see the Little Man That Lives in The President’s Head … dashing around from file cabinet to …
3:08 am
Bush’s Release Of Terror Study Could Cost Him
And now the prevalent question becomes: did an angry, nearly indignant President Bush stir up a hornet’s nest or open up a Costco size can of worms by releasing parts…
6:31 am
And the NIE reax keep coming:
Lots of blog comment to the National Intelligence Estimate unclassified yesterday (see also previous post): AP wins over Reuters: Even Reuters had a less negative report than the AP. (Blue Crab Boulevard) The Knights Who Say… NIE! (Protein Wisdom) Un…
7:56 am
Bush Releases Parts of NIE Report on Terrorism
The latest declassified portion of the NIE is out and it paints a slightly different picture than you would have imagined after the NY Times used a small leaked paragraph to try and hang the war in Iraq on.
I wonder how long it will be before what the …
8:46 am
Cheers to Dale in Atlanta for one of the best perspectives on Muslim history in the context of today’s events that I’ve read. Hope you made it to your day job. The NIE speaks for itself, with some consideration that the 16-agency effort probably could not avoid the influence of institutional biases in this agency versus that. But liberal spin is the coin of the moonbat realm, and whatever out-of-context advantage the left can manufacture, trust they will do it. Whatever picture the NIE paints in whole we’ll not see if the left is left to its own devices. Read it for yourself and make up your own mind in the cold, clear unspun light of day.
monsoon
3:34 pm
Dale, excellent post … you outta start a site, I’d read it daily.
The dems and the press are out to nail Bush and shut down this war …. another Nam …. I am so tired of the hatered in out country…. the terrorists are just sitting back laughing and planning the next big one …. thanks Dems, I just want to be a Grandmother some day.
11:37 pm
First Dale thanks for the excellent post.
Excellent clarity without stepping over the exposure line you have to walk being a past analysist.
Suggestion to Rick, it’s your blog and show, but setting up an interview with him for your show should be a must in my humble opinion.
1:14 am
Dale
Also like the guy in the movie The Graduate, I have one word
Rabta
Am I close?
8:10 am
SlimGuy: that particular place was a major concern/spinup from 88 – 01; but the real problem was north east; home of the Alawis, and I’ll leave it at that.!
4:10 pm
Quite a nonsensical post, really … but, I suppose, one that is at least consistent with the worldview to which many Americans subscribe.
Before you write me off and dismiss the remainder of my response, please know that I honestly mean this post my warning that America does not truly understand the state of the world as it exists outside of US borders. As a result, we are all in danger.
If you honestly believe in justice and humanity, you should at least know that you (i.e. the citizens of the USA) are being given one last chance to take responsibility for your government. The world is angry at your county because of the acts of its elites. At the same time, the ruinous economic decisions of those same elites have left the US financially and socially vulnerable to the whims of those outside its borders. Your best chance to avoid extreme social turbulence is to learn to get along with the rest of the world, but you have only a few months to implement the electoral decisions and begin the legal process that will quell the world’s anger.
The charade is over, fellas. The US has been found a paper tiger, yet again, and you can bray all you want but the UN is America’s best chance at self-preservation as its own relative power declines. They are, after all, your rules: if you can’t live within them, you ought not to have made them.
Your country cannot suspend its disbelief in reality for much longer; the world has awakened and your denial will no longer halt its progress. The greed and mismanagement of your leadership will bear its fruit in the coming years. The question is, just exactly how bitter (or radioactive) will that fruit be?
The people of the world are increasingly impatient to achieve their own freedom, and it looks less and less likely that their version of freedom will be consistent with continued American hegemony as it is currently manifested.
As for more pre-emptive war: aside from any question of its morality (the lack of which is beyond doubt), your military is now painted into a corner by unfavourable conditions (i.e. no U.S. draft) and unfavourable tactics (i.e. guerilla warfare against an inexhaustible supply of fighters). Now, the only chance of “victory” against your declared enemies (e.g. in Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Palestine and Iraq, as well as Syria, Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba … you get the point) is Dick Cheney’s unthinkable “nuclear option”.
Your conventional warmaking ability is vast but outmoded, like the proverbial knife-at-a-gunfight. (As an aside, I believe the immorality factor would mean that ANY future pre-emptive attack would invite an exponential increase in the locus, variety and profile of self-declared “enemies of America”.)
In sum, your shortsightedness and arrogance have eliminated your capacity to wage war other than by cowardly and genocidal annihilation of “your enemies”, just as your hubris has, thus far, needlessly prevented you from strategic retreat.
Despite the rhetoric of chickenhawks, not even the vastly ignorant American public would support a government that launched a nuclear strike on Iran or anywhere else, and any offensive falling short of such annihilation would mean endless war. We can all only hope that the armageddon wing of the chickenhawk party isn’t already well-roosted around the big red button.
So … by all means enjoy your delusions of comfort and superiority for a while longer, but know that you are doing so in the face of warnings, like this one, that the world will hold you (i.e. the citizens of the US) responsible if you again fail to adquately supervise the acts of your elected representatives.
Wake up and smell the sulfur, and then bury these dangerous fascists in ballots, subpeonas and indictments (in any order that pleases You and removes Them). Contrary to the world’s usual outrage on the subject, I am quite sure there would be neither hue nor cry if you were to excercise the death penalty for the crimes of this administration.
4:20 pm
My oh my…quite the little snot, aren’t we?
Hoplessly naive to the last, my friend. I’m 52 years old and I’ve been hearing basically this same crap for more than 30 years – we’re vulnerable, the world hates us, you’re on your last legs America, yadayadayada…
Are you saying, like Bullwinkle to Rocky as the Moose tries once again to pull the rabbit out of the hat, “This time for sure! Presto!”
America has been buried by better than you, my friend. And somehow we came back…or maybe we never really went away. So take your simpleminded, overbearing, insufferable commentary somewhere else.
Might I suggest an al-Qaeda website? I’m sure they’d welcome you with open arms since you feel about America exactly the same way they do.
5:05 pm
Whoa – alive for 52 years?! You are undoubtedly the wisest person ever to live. My humility in your presence will surely silence me.
My apologies. I am feeling charitable today and thought I might try and reach out. You are, after all, fellow human beings, and I would rather forgive and befriend you than watch you suffer. But it is your choice to denigrate me and ignore reality.
9:31 pm
Vox Populi Cosmicum: I’m not quite as old as Rick, 48; but I’ve lived overseas almost my whole life; went in 1966, when I was 8!
Funny thing was, we lived in a former British colony; and the Brits/expats, the Bulgarians, Russians, Indians, etc. hated us then! The Brits hated us more than anything, it was amazing, they were still referring to us derogotorily as “the colonies”, and “Yankee”, but then would line up at our front door, to get TANG and Snickers Bars, because their Government let them live on the local economy, and didn’ take care of them like ours!
Lived in Egypt for 5 years in the 70’s; went to University there; funny, they all hated us; we were all “Jew Lovers”, and “Zionist supporters” and “capitalists” stealing their oil!
Funny, they all wanted a visa to come to the US to work!
Lived in Spain in the 80’s, for 3 years; they hated us then; we were Capitalists and war-mongers and supporters of the “Jews” and uncultured, and rude, and loud, and no History; but they wanted us to protect them militarily, because their military takes 4 months off every summer to go the beach and drink sherry and stare at their daughters breasts, as everybody goes “monokini”!
Live in Japan and Okinawa in the 90’s for 3 years; they hated us then: we were war-mongers; we started WWII!, we dropped the “bomb” on them, we despoiled the environment, we raped their women, we smelled like “meat”; funny thing, under the table, they ask us to never leave, because they know the Chinesee and/or the North Koreans will attack them; and the ONLY green spaces left in Okinawa and mainland Japan, that ISN’T covered with Love motels and Pachinko parlors, are the US Bases; and they don’t trust themselves to manage the areas if we turn them back over!
My parents lived in Africa in the 40’s and 50’s, for 13 years; Liberia, Sudan, etc. Funny, they HATED us then; we had just won WWII, and displaced the British Empire as the world’s superpower; the only country that challenged our power was a nascent Soviet Union; but they hated us, because we were number ONE, and that’s the way it always is!
So, Vox, you frankly, don’t know squat, your delusional Leftist rhetoric, is just that, rhetoric! And nonsense, and crap, and patentedly FALSE, which is the most important thing!
So tell Rick he has no experience and you do; because I have more than you’ll every have, and you’re full of it!
I’ve heard your Leftist, internationalist bullcrap rhetoric my whole life, usually from Europeans, who are so pissed that they’ve let one of the greatest civilizations in the history of man, rot and decay from within, because they’re socialists and communists, and they too busy enforcing Political Correctness and Multicultrualism, and attacking what made them great to begin with, as they take their 3 month vacations, make is a sin to work; institute cradle to grave social welfare programs, import Muslim populations by the millions, to work and support those very same programs so they can continue to not work and stay on vacation, elevate pedaeophilia to a national pastime and sport; take their pedaeophiliac sex trips to SE Asia; destroy the institution of marriage so they can all live in multi-partner-trans-gender-gay-lesbian-communal-heaven; engage every timpot dictator in the world and accept their bribes, such as Saddam’s Oil-for-food-scandal, all because they cannot compete in a free and fair market place, so they have to engage in bribery; all the while, looking down their aquiline noses and sniffing condescendingly and patronizingly at us, while we continue to blow them out of the water, in every single measurable economically, known to man!
Then, you have the nerve, that you are “reaching out” to Rick, and you spend your entire post insulting him, America, etc.!
What a BUFFOON!
Sad thing is, you have the rhetoric down so well, it’s obvious you’ve been brainwashed from an early age!
I’m guessing our British, or Canadian, which these days, is almost as bad!
Eurabia is dead pal, done, finished, your “civilization” is like Atlantis, a fond memory, but more like a fantastical delusion!
Read ‘er and weep pal, the economy of California alone, is larger than every single European country!
It boils down to one thing; you’re the ones who destroyed yourselves; we sacrifice hundreds of thousands of our young men and women to rescue your pathetic asses in WWI, WWII, and the Cold War, when you all had the skeletal structure of jellyfish!
And you still can’t wait to roll over, spread ‘em, and surrender as quickly as you can to the Jihadis!
You seriously deserve the Dhimmitude that you’ll live in, IF they let you live at all! Me, I’m going to lead the charge that we let you all reap what you sow this time, they won’t make it over here!
When they convert St. Paul’s, and St. Peters, and Chartres to Mosques, and Buckingham Palace becomes the harem of some Saudi Sheikh, I’ll be siting over here, laughing my ass off at you pathetic fools!
Don’t worry though, history shows that all Hydraulic Empires collapse from internal Rot, and you’re just proving history correct!
I know, despite your high falutin’ words, you’ll have to Google that concept, so I’ll wait….....................
Okay, bottomline, my whole life, I’ve been around, and seen punks like you; guess what?
We’re still here, and stronger than ever!
You all, however, are neck deep in the privy in which you put yourselves, and trying to convince the world you don’t smell like Crap!
Works for our clueless, anti-Semetic Hollywood Leftist, that’s why they’re all pals with you all; but fortunately the majority of American gets it, and, would just as soon flush you the rest of the way down!
As one of the last wise Europeans (though admittedly part American); Winston Churchill told Neville Chamberlain, as he was busy trying to surrender to the Nazis: “you had a choice between war and shame; you chose shame, and you shall have the war all the same…”
Too bad you all didn’t listen!
I’ll also give you time to Google the term “Quisling”.......you should know what that means, typically, it’s named after a European!
Someone once asked a wiseman, what was the difference between America and Europe?
He said, well, America has had 232 years of uninterrupted Democracy, and 43 Presidents and peaceful transitions of civilian rule…
Well, what about Europe, then?
In that same time, they’ve invented or had: communism, socialism, Fascism, totalitarianism, authoritarianism, Nazism, de Gaullism, monarchism, revolution, massacres, genocide, civil wars, religious wars, racism, religiousism, sexism, ageism, and now, they have Islam!
Wow, Vox, what a legacy to be proud of!
Sure, you know what, I admit it, you guys are better than us, you’ve convinced me, I was just too stupid to realize it at first!
HAH!
Ut Sementem Feceris Ita Metes…............
1:57 pm
Dale (the idiot) in Atlanta: I suppose we will just have to wait and see who is evil and who is not. But it is you, and I don’t accept your stupidity in place of an apology.
I can’t quite place the source of your hostility, though. Perhaps your redneck military daddy convinced you that, despite all rational evidence to the contrary, the ultimate justice lies in being a redneck militarist who is afraid of the truth, and the dissonance between those lessons and objective reality is too great and it causes you to lash out at those who call attention to American evil.
Anywho … I give up on trying to dialogue with Americans. Those of you who are not stupid/ignorant are either powerless or evil. Your country is a write-off.