HILLARY EXIT NOT IMMEDIATE BUT PROBABLY INEVITABLE
The tide has turned against Hillary Clinton and not just in New Hampshire. Public tracking polls have her nearly 20 point lead nationwide as recently as the day of the Iowa Caucuses last Thursday now slipping to 11% and dropping everyday.
But beyond the public polls is what is happening underneath her feet and behind the scenes of her campaign. And it is here that it is painfully obvious that something is radically, terribly wrong.
First, a sense of Hillary’s emotional state as well as a hint that she knows its over:
Exhausted and facing the prospect of losing the second test of her primary campaign, Hillary Rodham Clinton fought back tears as her voice broke at the close of a sedate event in a Portsmouth coffee shop.
She expressed the sheer difficulty of heading out to the trail each day — “It’s not easy,” she said — and suggested she faced “pretty difficult odds.”
And with audible frustration and disbelief, she drew the contrast between her experience and Sen. Barack Obama’s that suggests that her campaign’s current message — the question of who is ready — matches her profound sense that she alone is ready for the job.
“Some of us know what are going to do on day one, and some of us haven’t thought that through enough,” she said.
How can she think it’s over when there hasn’t been but one real contest in the race? It appears to me that her internal polling apparatus - judged to be the best in the business - has likely given her the bad news; the race has passed her by and the Obama bandwagon is getting farther ahead.
There is a difference between the public polls, or “snapshots” put out by Gallup and Rasmussen and the internal polling done by campaigns. The behind the scenes polling is more of a survey operation where the pollsters examine trends in addition to raw numbers. The difference is that trends are a helluva lot more difficult to reverse. I would guess that the Obama surge has been on the radar for a while now in one way or another and more importantly, the slippage in support among key demographics has also been noted for some time. Like a snowball rolling downhill that reaches a cliff and falls off, Obama’s surge before and after Iowa shows a steady erosion of her position and then freefall.
Why should this be a permanent instead of temporary state of affairs? Again, I’m only guessing but the professionals probably note the movement of independent voters in huge numbers to Obama as well as a large drop in some of her core constituencies; single females especially (Obama won the women’s vote in Iowa 35-30%).
The drop in support of those two groups taken together could very well have precipitated this current crisis and may have led to this story in Drudge about her exiting after a loss in New Hampshire:
Facing a double-digit defeat in New Hampshire, a sudden collapse in national polls and an expected fund-raising drought, Senator Hillary Clinton is preparing for a tough decision: Does she get out of the race? And when?!
“She can’t take multiple double-digit losses in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada,” laments one top campaign insider to the DRUDGE REPORT. “If she gets too badly embarrassed, it will really harm her. She doesn’t want the Clinton brand to be damaged with back-to-back-to-back defeats.”
Meanwhile, Democrat hopeful John Edwards has confided to senior staff that he is staying in the race because Hillary “could soon be out.”
“Her money is going to dry up,” Edwards confided, a top source said Monday morning.
Key players in Clinton’s inner circle are said to be split. James Carville is urging her to fight it out through at least February and Super Tuesday, where she has a shot at thwarting Barack Obama in a big state.
It seems almost unbelievable to the uninitiated but trying to reverse a trend in politics - especially one that has at its core a huge desire for change - is extremely difficult. We are, after all, not talking about people changing their minds about what kind of car they want to buy. We’re talking about a decision on who they want to be president. Once people move from “soft” to “hard” support for a candidate, only some exterior force like a scandal or a horrible gaffe will get people to abandon that candidate and look elsewhere.
Even then, the decision on who to vote for president is so personal that many will stick with their candidate regardless of what they do.
So an educated guess on what is going on in Hillary’s campaign would be that their polling shows a catastrophic drop in support nationwide from constituencies that she needs to win coupled with a significant de-emphasis on experience being the most important attribute voters are looking for in a candidate. Since she built her campaign on those foundations, when there is a collapse, the writing is on the wall.
Other signs must have made her predicament obvious. Did we ever expect to see the day where this kind of thing would happen to Bill Clinton?
Former President Bill Clinton has been drawing sleepy and sometimes smallish crowds at big venues in the state that revived his presidential campaign in 1992. He entered to polite applause and rows of empty seats at the University of New Hampshire on Friday. Several people filed out midspeech, and the room was largely quiet as he spoke, with few interruptions for laughter or applause. He talked about his administration, his foundation work and some about his wife.
[snip]
But there was a similarly listless aura at the previous stop, in Rochester. And again, on Saturday in Bow, at just the sort of high school gym that the master campaigner used to blow out. Only 175 showed up in Bow — about one-third the capacity of the room — to hear Mr. Clinton hit his bullet points on the subprime lending crisis, $100 barrels of oil and how “10 of Hillary’s fellow senators have endorsed her.â€
There were obviating circumstances at the Clinton events - notably that the college students at U of NH were on break. But it is nevertheless shocking to think that the Democratic party may have finally come out if its trance over the Clintons and move on.
One more factor in Hillary’s apparent fall was the inevitable exit of John Edwards from the campaign. Few Edwards voters would be expected to support Hillary which would make her uphill struggle against the trends even more difficult.
She still has money and a first class organization. But those are of little use when supporters are lacking. Her dilemma on when to get out is made more difficult by the historic nature of her campaign. There are millions of women who would love to cast a vote for her even if she wasn’t going to win. That’s why I think she will wait until after Super Tuesday before giving in to what is apparently the inevitable.
UPDATE: 1/9
Since a few have been visiting today and wondering about my response to last night’s Hillary win, here is my mea culpa.
I predict that because Hillary Clinton will not be President of the United States, Bill Clinton…
Click here to read on.
Comment by Kevin D. Korenthal — 1/7/2008 @ 3:39 pm
It seems naive to think the tears were anything but another tactic in the ‘humanization of hil’ effort.
I read somewhere the hil campaign decided not to use a massive negative ad campaign in NH because there wasn’t enough time for it to be effective and too much risk of blowback. She has plenty of money for this in FL and you can bet it will be vicious–the worse things look, the more vicious it will be.
There is no reason in the world for hil to quit now and many reasons to stay in:
1. She’s the only one on the ballot in Michigan, a big state
2. There are few winner-take-all states on the Dem side, so she doesn’t fall that far behind in actual delegates.
3. She probably has a good share of the super delegates
4. She has money
5. This is her only shot to be queen–she’ll never go down any way but kicking and screaming (look at all the ‘gates they’ve come through (filegate, travelgate, monicagate, rosegate, s&lgate, fostergate…). These people just do not quit. She will somehow take this all the way to the convention even if she’s behind. And if there’s a way to steal it, she will.
Comment by zwhite — 1/7/2008 @ 4:28 pm
*
Boo effing Hooo already…
I have a request for the big ball-baby.
Hillary, bring back the furniture.
*bert
*
Comment by BERT CONVY — 1/7/2008 @ 4:53 pm
“We are, after all, not talking about people changing their minds about what kind of car they want to buy. We’re talking about a decision on who they want to be president.”
Well, that is a big part of the problem, now isn’t it? Most people will, frankly, give a lot more thought to their next car purchase than to their vote for a president. Heck, given the influence of MAdison Avenue sizzle in the case of a car and Mass Media Podpeople actively (or even passive agressively *heh*) campaigning for whoever they want to run/win, the razor’s edge margin of those few members of the electorate who give any thought to the selection of a political candidate… can likely all be found in the blogoshpere.
*sigh*
Comment by David — 1/7/2008 @ 4:54 pm
not that I like hillary, but there is something wrong with a process whereby not winning in either Iowa or NH (neither of which, as a whole and certainly not of the people actually voting in the primaries, are not representative of the country) leads to someone dropping out of the race, just as there’s something off about primary voters switching their allegiance on the basis of how well ‘their’ candidate does in the early primaries.
Comment by stevesturm — 1/7/2008 @ 5:10 pm
Is this such a good thing? We need Rush and Hannity and everyone else to boost Hillarys polls. I would prefer to face her in a General Election.
Comment by Dennis D — 1/7/2008 @ 5:17 pm
Is the campaign taking its toll on Hillary?…
Usually I am a pretty compassionate person. At least that is the way I have always attempted to live life.
Maybe I am just to cynical where the Clinton’s are concerned but I have a very difficult time finding the following to be believeable:
The…
Trackback by J's Cafe Nette — 1/7/2008 @ 5:37 pm
Is Hillary Going To Drop Out?…
Drudge had the siren going for this:
Facing a double-digit defeat in New Hampshire, a sudden collapse in national polls and an expected fund-raising drought, Senator Hillary Clinton is preparing for a tough decision: Does she get out of the race? And w…
Trackback by Right Voices — 1/7/2008 @ 7:27 pm
Obama versus The Huckster is what you’re looking at, boys.
Who would have ever thought that Junior’s 8 years of vast incompetence would lead to America’s first black president?
The only really good thing to come out of this debacle ..
Comment by Jeff Knuggleson — 1/7/2008 @ 8:00 pm
I don’t think Obama understand just how many Democrat careers are invested in Clinton, Inc.
That, and there just aren’t enough Evangelicals to get Huckabee nominated.
Comment by syn — 1/7/2008 @ 9:37 pm
syn nailed it. Saying, “Democrat careers”, he might have said super-delegates. As zwhite said, “She will somehow take this all the way to the convention even if she’s behind. And if there’s a way to steal it, she will.”
Comment by zeke — 1/7/2008 @ 10:44 pm
N.H. Is Already Flooded With Attack Ads…
Computerized phone calls noting that Sen. John McCain hasn’t signed a pledge not to raise taxes. Hu…
Trackback by Unpartisan.com Political News and Blog Aggregator — 1/8/2008 @ 1:23 am
Polls in Florida show Hillary with a huge lead and the primary in three weeks. But the Democratic candidates have promised not to campaign here, and the DNC says it will not seat Florida’s delegates at the convention. Will Hillary be able to resist the lure of such a huge number of delegates? Will she force the DNC to backtrack? For that matter, will Obama on a roll after Iowa, New Hampshire and (presumably) South Carolina be able to resist campaigning here - maybe even through Oprah? And what of Michigan - its voters will be denied delegates, too.
Comment by Juan Paxety — 1/8/2008 @ 7:25 am
Jaun and APX:
Great points both of you. I think Hillary’s next move is to win in Michigan (she’s the only one on the ballot) and FL while pushing to have the DNC reverse their decision about seating their delegates.
If not, do you really think the Dems are going to risk alienating voters in two of the 10 biggest states in the Union by not giving them a say in their party’s nomination process?
It should be very interesting to watch…
Comment by Rick Moran — 1/8/2008 @ 7:31 am
Will it be apparently inevitable that Rick will admit that he was soooooo wrong with his ‘prediction”?
I love this quote: “Like a snowball rolling downhill that reaches a cliff and falls off, Obama’s surge before and after Iowa shows a steady erosion of her position and then freefall.”
The only thing free falling is yours and every other savant’s on the right reputations. Especially the Weekly Standard. Why not predict the weather, that’s a job left to professionals and fools too? Got any hot stock tips while your at it Mr.Clairvoyant?
Comment by the Fly-Ma — 1/9/2008 @ 7:37 am
You were wrong. Follow-up?
Comment by Xanthippas — 1/9/2008 @ 11:13 am
Fly Ma:
Will it be apparently inevitable that Rick will admit that he was soooooo wrong with his ‘prediction�
I’ve admitted my mistake.
http://rightwingnuthouse.com/archives/2008/01/09/please-pass-the-salt/
When are you going to admit yours, asshole?
Comment by Rick Moran — 1/9/2008 @ 11:27 am
Thank you for graciously presenting my comments on your blog. the fact that you have a particular problem, outright carelessness with the fact side of your delivery, regulates you to either the entertainment or editorial segment of the nut house you cheer for. I will have no problem taking everything you present from now on as your opinion. Sure I’m an asshole at least I’m just an amateur one. Thanks again for presenting my comments.
Comment by the Fly-Ma — 1/9/2008 @ 1:44 pm
[...] But no, that would have put me behind the curve - left behind like roadkill on the internet punditry highway. And now, the whole world knows I’m an idiot. Howard Kurtz at the Washington Post linked to my article on Hillary’s exit from the campaign and the quote he uses from my article holds me up to some well deserved ridicule. [...]
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