How’s this for a McCain scenario:
1. McCain derails Romney today in Michigan.
2. McCain destroys Huckabee on Saturday in South Carolina.
3. McCain sends Rudy packing in Florida on the 29th.
If that scenario comes to pass – and it is well within the Arizona Senator’s reach – McCain would have won a primary in the Northeast, the Midwest, and two in the South (probably finishing second to Romney in Nevada).
GOP voters see his broad appeal and decide to coalesce behind him due mainly to his electability, giving McCain a big Super Tuesday run of primary wins, driving a stake through Romney, and garnering an insurmountable delegate lead.
Not credible? It’s already happening.
In Rudy Giuliani’s backyard, a new poll out shows McCain ahead in New Jersey:
Monmouth University/Gannett GOP New Jersey Primary
John McCain 29%
Rudy Giuliani 25%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Mitt Romney 9%
Ron Paul 5%
Fred Thompson 5%
And in California, another new poll has McCain shooting into the lead (numbers in parentheses are from last month’s poll):
SurveyUSA GOP California Primary
John McCain 33% (14%)
Rudy Giuliani 18% (28%)
Mike Huckabee 14% (20%)
Mitt Romney 13% (16%)
Fred Thompson 9% (13%)
Ron Paul 4%
Other 3% (7%)
Undecided 4% (3%)
Is this love affair between McCain and the voters a one night stand or something more permanent? Ordinarily, I’d say it looks like it would be difficult to stop McCain given his huge lead in the national polls.
But this is the wackiest primary season I’ve ever seen. A loss in Michigan could deflate McCain’s balloon faster than it expanded while setting Mitt Romney up as the next victim/frontrunner. Romney just went back on the air in South Carolina so it is evident he feels a win in Michigan puts him right back on top.
A little more perspective on the hazards of being inevitable – for any candidate – from David Freddoso:
Consider:
- Even a win in Michigan next Tuesday cannot guarantee McCain anything further. He will probably do poorly in Nevada next Saturday and South Carolina will at least be a challenge.
- Although it appears unlikely, no one can yet rule out a Florida resurrection by Rudy Giuliani.
- Mike Huckabee could win Michigan and South Carolina, and then dominate the South on February 5, but is likely to lose badly throughout the West and the Northeast.
- Mitt Romney could still win in Nevada next Saturday — a state with more delegates than either Michigan or South Carolina. He could keep it close or even stay ahead in the delegate count with a “second-place-everywhere-until-Super-Tuesday†strategy, since most of the early states award delegates proportionally or by congressional district.
- And while it seems doubtful, it’s conceivable that Fred Thompson could win South Carolina after his debate performance.
(HT: Malkin)
GOP primary voter angst is not the result of too many choices but rather no good choices – at least if you can believe the pollsters. Believe me, I feel their pain.
But hey! Someone has to win. If it’s McCain, the party has a shot at the presidency next November – a long shot to be sure but McCain has demonstrated appeal among indpendents and Democratic hawks. Since a presidential election is actually 50 different elections, McCain could take some blue states away from the Democrats to offset the almost certain loss of Ohio and a few other formerly red states.
Giuliani could also but would lose some toss up states as well. Fred is the only candidate with a shot at repeating Bush’s success in 2000 and 2004 but would probably come up short in a couple of key states.
So if the voters are interested in winning and nothing else, it’s going to be McCain. If it’s anyone else, I think Republicans are looking at varying degrees of defeat. Close if Mitt, Giuliani, or Fred is the nominee. Historic landslide loss if it’s Huckabee.
No, McCain is not inevitable. But given his pluses for many GOP voters, he may be the default choice of a party in transition.
1:12 pm
“me may be the default choice of a party in transition.”
Typo? Only if its a Freudian typo! Moran in 2008!
1:14 pm
Heh. Thanks for the correction.
Actually, I am running. I’m the candidate of the “Leave me the hell Alone” party.
1:28 pm
The race is shaping up like the NCAA football polls this season – whoever is first or second gets whacked (and that’s figuratively for you Secret Service agents).
1:31 pm
Rick,
Sounds very plausible except for one thing. McCain is going to LOSE MI today and probably badly.
Intrade has Romney up 20 points since just the morning as news of light turnout comes in and VERY VERY few Dems showing up on a funky, snowy day to vote McCain.
The Mitchell (no relation to me) Poll, which has been VERY accurate in MI politics for a while, had Romney up 6 today after having him down by 9 (i think) last week.
If McCain gets beat in MI where he had every advantage:
1. NH Momentum.
2. Open Primary.
3. No Dems Running.
He will be mortally wounded.
1:35 pm
Romney has EXPLODED to an 8 point lead on Rasmussen Markets. He was down 20 to McCain yesterday.
I know things like Intrade and Rasmussen Markets seem stupid and useless, but so far this season, they have done better than most pollsters at predicting outcome.
2:36 pm
It’s a rash man who predicts much of anything this year. I’m prepared to predict tonight’s winner—some time after the polls close.
2:49 pm
All well and good. But, McCain is not a conservative! The only thing he gets right is the war on terrorists! He is so much like Lieberman, they might just be the same person. It would not be a Republican victory to have McCain win. Please, God, let someone sensible win this!
3:29 pm
Mr. Inevitable by whose standards? You would think that Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina and New Hampshire are the end all to the Republican races and oh, well, those pesky little states like Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma et al, really don’t count. Let’s pick our nominee by just four states.
The only people pushing McCain as the inevitable chosen one is the media. They want him to run against Obama; the old man v. the kid. Now who in the world would chose the old man of the sea when you can have the new kid on the block? Even Fox News pushes McCain. Fred Barnes being the worst offender.
And how much do we hear about Fred who is considered by the media to be lazy (misjudging his laid back southerness to being lazy) but who is working his tail off and raking in the donations so fast they can’t keep up with them? Fred doesn’t kiss the backside of the media so he, to them, is a non-item.
So all we hear about is John Kerry’s new best friend (McCain) and Elmer Gantry (Huckabee) and a few snipits about Romney who should be getting more credit and less flack.
What is the choice with Independents? A Democratic socialist (Hillary or Obama) or a Repubican socialist (McCain or Huckabee)? Now we have Joe Liberman (who votes strictly along liberal lines except for the war on terror) and Lindsey Grahamnesty stumping for McCain. That should tell voters all they need to know but alas, they would rather have the media tell them who will be the next CIC. It is so much easier than really doing some research on these men’s records, isn’t it?
3:58 pm
If McCain should receive the Republican nomination he’ll have to rely on country-club republicans to GOTV for him, unfortunately the country-clubbers don’t do door-to-door or phone banks.
But hey, maybe he can grassroot the independent voters however, the problem with this scenario is they like to sit on the fence and wait to see who’s portrayed by the media as most popular.
4:01 pm
As Bill said, it’s not looking good for McCain today, but as we saw in NH anything can happen. It seems he can lose either MI or SC but not both. If he wins both, he could win FL, and if he does that, it’s nothing but taillights.
RM: “Romney just went back on the air in South Carolina so it is evident he feels a win in Michigan puts him right back on top”
uh… I guess it could put him “on top”, but it can’t put him “back on top” cuz he’s never been near the top. McCain and Rudy had national name recognition long before the race started; Flip’s (failed) early momentum strategy was all about establishing national name recognition that he needs but doesn’t have (has he ever been about the teens in national polls?).
4:29 pm
Dirt Starts Flying in South Carolina
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Both John McCain and Mike Huckabee may have a hard time keeping their promise not to go negative in …
6:01 pm
Don’t know if it matters, but INTRADE and RASMUSSEN MARKETS has Roney waaaaay ahead.