THE POTENTIAL ANTI-OBAMA VOTE IN NOVEMBER
This is a fascinating analysis by Daniel Larison, comparing a poll in 2006 that showed a fierce, anti-Bush feeling among voters, and a similar poll taken earlier this week that showed a sizable, but less widespread anti-Obama feeling.
The NBC/WSJ poll that came out earlier this week has some interesting results. The midterms are just over nine months away, so it seemed worth checking the questions related to the elections. The generic ballot shows a Democratic edge of 2 points, 44-42, but we should bear in mind that the RCP average for the generic ballot continues to show the GOP ahead by 3. More interesting, only 27% of respondents said that they would be casting their votes to send a signal of opposition to Obama. 37% said they will be signalling support for him, and 38% said they will not be sending any signal about Obama. That does not exactly fit the picture of a public recoiling in horror from Obama.
Contrast this with a comparable question about Bush in ‘06. Throughout 2006, anti-Bush voters had the edge over pro-Bush voters by 15-18 points. Prior to the 2002 and 1998 midterms, when the presidential party gained seats in the House, pro-Bush and pro-Clinton voters edged out the opposition voters by 12 points in ‘02 and 5 points in ‘98. What distinguishes the ‘02 and ‘98 results from ‘06 and this year is that in the earlier elections there were far more neutral voters for whom the President was not a direct factor. Nonetheless, as the ‘02 and ‘98 results suggest, when there are more pro-presidential voters than anti-presidential voters the presidential party tends to have better-than-average midterm elections. Interestingly, Obama’s numbers here are almost a reverse of Bush’s ‘06 numbers: where 37% wanted to show opposition to Bush and just 22% wanted to express support, 37% want to show support for Obama and 27% want to express opposition. While this is just one result, it wouldn’t seem to herald the collapse of Democratic majorities caused by massive anti-Obama sentiment sweeping the land.
Larison points out that this doesn’t mean the Democrats won’t lose lots of seats. But it does suggest that the wellspring of support for Obama probably means a flip of the House and Senate are out of the question.
Now that the euphoria surrounding Scot Brown’s senate upset win is dying down, time for a little realism to be injected into our discussions of mid-terms. There is little doubt that the prospect for huge gains by Republicans is still on the table - Obama or no Obama. With an approval rating in the low 20’s, the Democratic Congress can lose dozens of seats all on their own, thank you. Their base is discouraged, while the enthusiasm among Republicans nationwide is huge by contrast.
The GOP is emulating the Democratic success in 2006-08 by recruiting high quality, known commodities in competitive districts. Many of these candidates are self-funding, which is a definite plus in any race:
Republicans have suggested they already have about 80 quality candidates, and they continue to expand their scope. They said they plan to have a candidate in all 435 races, including in Illinois, where the filing period has passed and the party will have to maneuver to fill out the ballot.
Sessions wasn’t the only one talking but about recruiting.
Chairman of the moderate House Republican Tuesday Group caucus, Rep. Charlie Dent (Pa.), told The Hill that candidates are going to “come out of the woodwork, across America, even in the Northeast and New England.”
“It’s a clarion call to everyone in Washington that the electorate is dissatisfied with this alarming agenda coming out of Washington,” Dent said.
Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.), vice-chairman of the NRCC, went one step further: “Recruitment has not only gone well up until this point, but I think it will go on steroids, henceforth.”
Of course, it helps when it is perceived to be a GOP year. Some of these same folks who have thrown their hat in the ring, politely declined in 2008 when confronted with the prospect of a Democratic sweep.
And there are at least 20 former GOP members of Congress who lost their seats to Democrats who are trying to make a comeback:
The heavy dose of the past for Republicans was capped in recent days with the announced candidacies of former Reps. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Mike Sodrel (R-Ind.), Richard Pombo (R-Calif.) and J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.).
The four of them give the Republicans’ 2010 recall effort a notable 2006 flavor.
All four lost their seats in 2006, and they join former Reps. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.), John Hostettler (R-Ind.) and Charlie Bass (R-N.H.) from that class in trying to revive their party. That means seven of 22 GOP incumbents who lost four years ago are seeking some kind of comeback.
For Simmons, Hostettler and Hayworth (who announced a bid against Sen. John McCain this weekend), they will run for the Senate. The others are eyeing a return to the House, including Bass, who has an exploratory committee, and Pombo, who is running in a district neighboring his old one.
Six members of the 2008 losing class are either running again or are considering it, but the size of that class is still up in the air. Former Reps. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.), Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) and Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) are already in, and former Reps. David Davis (R-Tenn.), Bill Sali (R-Idaho) and Virgil Goode (R-Va.) may run for their old seats.
They start out with a huge advantage in that they don’t have to spend a million dollars on building name recognition. That, and the fact that many of them lost by less than landslide margins to the Democratic incumbent and you have the makings for some real barnburners in November.
It takes more than attractive, well known, and well funded candidates to win a lot of seats. It takes an coherent platform for the candidates to run on. Brian Faughnan of RedState attended the GOP retreat yesterday and reports:
I’m also told to count on an updated version of the Contract With America (no surprise there). But I’m told to expect it later, rather than sooner. One staffer pointed out that a Contract which comes early will be forgotten by voters by election day. One that comes late is more likely to be remembered, and to feed some excitement about the coming agenda. Former Speaker Gingrich (I was told) had made this point in his comments.
I suppose there’s logic in that but an alternative take on this is that Republicans can’t come up with a positive agenda at the moment and have deferred work on it until they can come up with a something. Recycling the Ryan health care bill is probably not a good idea if Obamacare fails, but getting together on some deficit cutting measures is almost certainly in the offing as is some sort of tax cutting jobs measure.
As bad as it is for Democrats right now, the fact that Obama does not appear to be a game changing stone tied around their necks along with a singular lack of GOP policy alternatives at the moment, means that even their House majority seems safe for now, with the senate clearly out of reach.
Faughnan again:
While a session with pollsters Kellyanne Conway and David Livingston was not open to the press, Republican Members were delighted after the presentation. One told me that the pollsters stressed the importance of winning independent voters, rather than turning out the base. They said that a critical reason for the GOP landslide in 1994 was that independents favored the GOP by a 14 point margin. The latest polling - the GOP was told - puts Republicans ahead by 15 points.
Livingston and Conway also stressed that voters are not personally rejecting Barack Obama, and they cautioned against being seen as opposing the president personally. They said that it is his policies which are unpopular, and candidates should be careful to draw the distinction. They told the conference that simply opposing the Democrats will net 20 House seats or so; proposing a positive agenda of their own would net 20 more.
That sounds about right, although I think it is a little optimistic to expect another 20 seats will fall if the GOP can ever get their act together and come up with an agenda that will gain the support of indies without turning off the enthusiasm of the base. Other political pros are not as sanguine. Rothenberg gives the GOP a 28 seat pick up scenario. Cook has a possible 25-35 seat swing for the Republicans. Both gentlemen are saying that it could get worse for the Dems if the economy doesn’t improve.
It’s hard to be the opposition for two years and then turn around and try to be positive in proposing what should be done to make things better in the country. I think this will be the greatest challenge the GOP will face as they are forced to pivot from standing athwart history screaming “stop” to the Democrat’s far left agenda, to trying to address the concerns of ordinary Americans. Simply presenting themselves as an alternative to the Democrats will get them only so far. The test of leadership - and the resulting electoral popularity - comes in articulating a vision of how you would govern.
I was encouraged with what I saw at the televised retreat yesterday. For the first time in a long time, the Republicans actually presented viable alternatives to many of Obama’s prescriptions for the country. This is not to say they didn’t have them (the Ryan health care bill was introduced last May), it’s just that they didn’t promote these alternatives in a consistent, articulate manner.
Imagine rather than screaming “socialist” every day since Obamacare has been an issue, the GOP had calmly and repeatedly countered with Ryan’s common sense health care reforms. Every day getting in front of the cameras and daring the president to call them the “party of no” while exposing his lies about working toward a bi-partisan solution. I daresay if the American people had become as familiar with the Republican alternative as with Obamacare, they may very well have preferred the GOP’s solutions.
Or what would have been the result if, last February, the GOP had actually come up with a counter-stimulus - one without all the bells, whistles, political payoffs, and wasteful spending in Porkulus - and gone in front of the cameras every day touting it?
If they had, they wouldn’t have the credibility problem they have today. The GOP may very well come up with “Contract for America II” but how will voters respond to it if all the Republicans have been doing for two years is trying to get people to believe that the president is destroying America? Most people do not believe that, or anything close to it, and wonder about a political party that tries to make that case.
Thankfully, the Democrats have screwed up so badly that a couple of dozen seats are likely to fall into the GOP’s laps no matter what they propose. I just wonder that if the Republicans fall short of overturning Congress, they will recognize too late that a marvelous opportunity has passed them by thanks to their near-nihilistic antipathy to using government rationally, and conservatively, to make a difference in the lives of America’s citizens.
[...] RightWing NutHouse [...]
Pingback by Political Winds Shift: The Republican Bad Week Starts? « The Western Experience — 1/30/2010 @ 12:19 pm
Yesterday was great for the Republicans, except for the hour or so where Obama b**** slapped the entire GOP brain trust.
Many of the GOP’s toughest firebrands probably went in there actually thinking the president is helpless without a TelePrompter only to have Barrack Obama slice them up with a razor.
Reminded me of that scene in “The Harder They Come”. The organizers of the 2012 presidential debates ought to sell tickets to what will be an inevitable bloodbath of whatever ideologue the GOP puts up against Obama.
Comment by Richard Bottoms — 1/30/2010 @ 1:19 pm
The RNC desperately needs someone who can lay it out like you Rick. Once again another excellent analysis.
Comment by Brad — 1/30/2010 @ 1:25 pm
Someone made a wonderful observation last week — Scott Brown didn’t win by campaigning against Martha Coakley. He won by campaigning against Barack Obama and the Obama agenda.
This could be done in every district of every state in the country, regardless of the specifics of the incumbent.
Comment by jms — 1/30/2010 @ 1:29 pm
You mean regardless if they are a fringe teabagger or Darwin denialist, that’s all it will take to win? After Obama’s smackdown of the GOP yesterday I think that conventional wisdom will be found wanting. But feel free to try it, especially if the economy takes off this spring as it looks like it might.
That whole ObamaHitlerMao thing has been played out.
Comment by Richard Bottoms — 1/30/2010 @ 2:31 pm
Rick
I will stay consistent in my message:
The time for critical thought, and the time for maximum violent push are two different times.
As we can all see your time is coming my friend.
This is a dance that must be coreagraphed(sp?) well.
Step in Combatant 1
Execute manoeuver
Step out Combatant 1
Step in resonable man
Resonable man = Rick Moran
This is where we are now. Welcome to the party.
Comment by Steve — 1/30/2010 @ 2:39 pm
Man I am so glad that so many Republicans are steadfast in their determination to be perceived as racist jerks.
No, I don’t believe all Republicans ae proto-Klan members, but enough of them in high profile positions are that it makes it hard for your party to ever shake that association in the minds of anyone with brown skin or a Jewish name.
Thanks, I really appreciate it.
Comment by Richard Bottoms — 1/30/2010 @ 4:16 pm
Richard,
Obama really b****** slapped the GOP. Actually what he did was to ask for bipartisanship by insulting the GOP. Not a wise move for someone sinking in the polls and having to reverse course constantly. He needs Republican cooperation to achieve anything in what is becoming painfully clear is a lame duck presidency. Unable to pass any meaningful legislation even with a super majority in the Senate and control of both houses of Congress? Believe me, he needs the Republicans far more than they need him.
Comment by Jackv — 1/30/2010 @ 4:40 pm
I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but we have larger majorities than Bush did. Now that the GOP has added their Senate seat they can’t continue the game of opposing everything Obama wants to do.
The Republicans had a narrative of a TelePrompter addicted fraidy cat and that was demolished in just one hour.
Bet that president Obama will continue to ring the GOP’s bells on a host of issues. Outside of health care there are few issues where they can vote no just to embarrass the president when in fact it’s an issue they and their constituents normally would support.
You really think they’ll vote against $30 billion for small business and elimination of Capital Gains just because Obama proposed it?
Obama was exactly right that the GOP rhetoric designed to appeal to teabaggers boxes them in more than him.
With the continuing embarrassment of racists like Councilman Bob Kellar and the certainty of teabaggers making a spectacle of themselves once the weather warms the midterms are shaping up to be nothing like the rout of 1994.
Yeah, we’ll lose seats but Congress will remain in Democratic hands which means by 2012 with the economy humming whatever nutcase you guys run will get sliced to ribbons in the debates. And the whole pack will spend more than two years disavowing one crank after another as the teabaggers start whipping out their sidearms, wacko signs, and rhetoric.
Comment by Richard Bottoms — 1/30/2010 @ 5:13 pm
Bottoms,
An appropriate name….
Drink some more Kool-Aid,troll. The alternate universe you inhabit must be extremely uncomfortable for you, as the real universe closes in.
Have a nice day.
Comment by Jackv — 1/30/2010 @ 7:09 pm
I’m sorry, I wasn’t listening. Did you say something?
I’ve noticed. With 60 votes, he sure as heck didn’t need a single Republican to get anything he wanted. If his prescription for the country was so sure fire, he could have pushed through an entire rewrite of America during the last year. Did he get everything he wanted this year legislatively? If not, why not? I suppose it was those meanie Republicans (that were virtually powerless) that stymied him?
Comment by sota — 1/30/2010 @ 7:35 pm
I was encouraged with what I saw at the televised retreat yesterday. For the first time in a long time, the Republicans actually presented viable alternatives to many of Obama’s prescriptions for the country. This is not to say they didn’t have them (the Ryan health care bill was introduced last May), it’s just that they didn’t promote these alternatives in a consistent, articulate manner.
Whoa, Rick. By consensus, Obama spent over an hour taking the GOP, one by one, behind the woodshed and whooping ass. It got so bad, Fox News cut away with 20 minutes to go - to criticize Obama.
That you think the GOP did well in this exchange shows a lack of objective thinking. Obama took every question, and, basically, said “Um.. No. Lie. Here are the facts.” He then completely demolished the GOP from a policy standpoint.
Comment by JerryS — 1/30/2010 @ 8:26 pm
Unlike the previous occupant of the White House, this president expressed and paiently worked to have a meaningful bipartisanship relationship with the opposition. Nothing much happened because they, preferring instead to focus on saying “No” until November 2010 in hopes it would win back Congress, did zip.
Obama seeing that this approach was getting him “jack” and “s***” from the GOP has decided to amp up the volume on their empty agenda while at the same time preparing to take his 51 votes and this start passing stuff.
If may have escaped your notice, but the money in the pipeline for infrastructure, support for main street, and other stimulus related projects start getting spent right about now. Public projects in an election year.
What a concept. The American public won’t stand for their roads getting fixed and firefighters keeping their engines running if ObamaHitlerMao is the reason.
Right.
The proposals Obama will be making over the next few months will be things the GOP will find very hard to boycott 100% unlike things like the stimulus.
Will they oppose the war they championed? I hear voting against send money to the troops always goes over well. Denounce tax cuts and nuclear energy? How about blocking $30 billion in loans for small business?
Not on your life. That is unless they find themselves boxed in by their teabagger hordes and their own rhetoric of ObamaHitlerMao they’ve used the last 12 months.
That being the case, if they vote for Obama’s proposals the teabaggers will s***, if they fail to bring home the bacon, moderates will wonder if they’ve gone nuts, and if the support the programs Democrats get the win
Rock, meet hard place.
When the shrieking hordes of “patriots” having just discovered after eight years that now they hate deficits start acting a fool, brandishing their pistols and Uzis at townhall meetings the reaction won’t be quite so supportive as the folks who just want work to get done in Washington ask themselves who is really nuts here?
The teabagger convention is headed towards a spectacular flop and Sarah Palin’s 15 minutes for anyone other than her most ardent fans is rapidly coming to a close
What’s clear is your side truly believe Obama couldn’t stand on his own in front of the best the GOP has to put up against him, that without his props and adoring audiences he’d fold. You were found to be well and truly wrong. And I daresay we won’t see an event like this happening again any time soon.
At least not one starring Mike Pence vs Barrack Obama in which Pence gets his behind handed to him.
Comment by Richard Bottoms — 1/30/2010 @ 8:52 pm
I have to believe that sometimes even YOU don’t believe what you’re saying.
Comment by sota — 1/31/2010 @ 6:31 am
Richard Bottoms Said: 4:16 pm
Man I am so glad that so many Republicans are steadfast in their determination to be perceived as racist jerks.
Ladies and gentlemen, this asshat is nothing more than frothing lunacy on display for all to see. It doesn’t get any better does it?
Comment by CZ — 1/31/2010 @ 7:40 am
Yes, what difference could there possibly be between an administration that repeatedly offers it’s hand to the other side, and one that wasted a period national unity, letting partisanship get to the point to where a legless vet with one arm is accused of being in league with Bin Laden and war critics become traitors to because that’s how you win elections.
The economy is going to take off like a rocket come summer and the GOP will be left with the birthers and 4,000 year old Earth crackpots who believe Sarah Palin could go toe to toe with a resident who pwned the GOP like he did last week.
I’m betting the freak show wing of the party is upset with Michael Steele for putting their meeting in Hawaii. He’s eliminated their ability to attack Obama for going home on vacation.
Comment by Richard Bottoms — 1/31/2010 @ 7:50 am
Yes, the GOP has no problem at all on this issue,
BTW, exactly how many black folks are in national office from the Republican Party? None, zero, zilch you say??
Meanwhile you’re working awfully hard to ensure Hispanics loath the GOP as well. Keep up the good work. Can’t wait until the spring.
Comment by Richard Bottoms — 1/31/2010 @ 8:02 am
As a conservative Independent who rejected the Republicans as they meandered into the wasteland in 06 and 08 I reject Obama, too.
I ended up voting for the Repub’s anyway but with no donating, and little to no enthusiasm. My congress man Lungren won, but CA is solid Democrat. I say get an agenda out there now and then when the contract is drawn it has some depth and background. I hate last second political gamesmanship. I know its between a rock and a hard place to time the message just right so our short attention spanned electorate will retain the necessary information, so start building the case right now that Republicans ideas are what this country needs, NOW.
Comment by JohntT — 1/31/2010 @ 8:48 am
OOf, I guess I should have read all comments first, Richard is skimming the bottom of the barrel isn’t he??
Illegal aliens have destroyed this State and economy mr.bottoms, would you like to come try and compete against illegal aliens in the Construction Industry in CA? You would perish in an instant, like most of the law abiding businesses here. Only the Unions, and they are just barely, and those who are willing to break the Law(using illegal alien, tax payer subsidized workers)are managing to keep afloat in my area right now. With a few well connected exceptions, of course. Well connected in a good and honest way, too there are still some of those opportunities out there.
To deny that illegal aliens didn’t contribute all the manpower to overbuild in the bubble is to have not paid attention here. Those jobs that Americans wouldn’t do were just jobs that there were too few Americans to get to. And now we know why, because the economy could not sustain all those jobs and people.
I would bet Rick Bottoms has a Government job or is “getting” money somehow. Or is that Rick’s alter ego?
JK!
Comment by JohntT — 1/31/2010 @ 9:04 am
I’m a software developer, so I compete against 18 year olds kids barely old enough to shave who are living in Belarus and India.
Thanks, I know all about competition.
I’m no fan of H1B’s believe me, but you can make the case against illegal immigration without coming off as a racist hothead.
The GOP has not mastered that skill, and since their track record for putting minorities into office, black folks in particular is so dismal they have no credibility when it comes time to make their case.
I simply put forth that come spring there will be lots of rally and protests all featuring guys with guns and signs that will embarrass and anger people you might otherwise attract to your party. All this has happened before and it will happen again.
Comment by Richard Bottoms — 1/31/2010 @ 9:11 am
And BTW, a construction worker is exactly the kind of person who should be shouting from the rooftops for affordable Universal Health coverage so employers in the United States can compete against countries that do offer such insurance.
Should you ever get hurt on the job or develop a pre-existing condition like arthritis try moving to another state and get coverage. Your chances of finding a reasonablypriced policy with a company that won’t be drop you the first time you get sick are between slim and not a chance in hell.
Comment by Richard Bottoms — 1/31/2010 @ 9:17 am
Right, I can make the case against illegal aliens with being racist because I am not racist. I don’t care which country they come from and what colour their skin. If our country “needs” them, then figure out how to legally get them here, and not just to import an underclass of Democrat voters either, ala Obamas immigration scheme, coming soon to a broken state near you.
The fact is we don’t need them, we are aborting out our population growth, subsidizing laziness and broken families and giving our country away.
I can always go to the emergency room and get treated and say No habla Ingles, dont you think Richard, and not have to pay my bill. That is what my counterparts are doing as they are willing to work for 5$ or 10$ an hour and live 10 in a house and drive 6 in a pickup truck, single cab I may add.
All I can say is you get what you pay for and our country is getting what we deserve with Chinese manufactured junk and illegal immigrant labor. No loyalty, no country.
Comment by JohntT — 1/31/2010 @ 10:06 am
Richard Bottoms Said:
8:02 am BTW, exactly how many black folks are in national office from the Republican Party? None, zero, zilch you say??
More of the same from a one-trick pony with a one track mind. When you have nothing else to offer, bring up some racial bullshit. Same tired old tactic, same tired old ideologue. Same old jackASS party.
Comment by CZ — 1/31/2010 @ 10:21 am
Yes, the best time to see a doctor about the cancer in your gut is when you’re bleeding out of your rectum.
For the rest of us on planet Earth, we prefer preventative care and not to have to beg in the street when we get sick.
Comment by Richard Bottoms — 1/31/2010 @ 1:30 pm
Have the Dems done a good job governing? No. But Americans still recall what a mess 8 years of gop rule wreaked.If people think Americans have gone far right with Beck and company they are sadly mistaken.We are a centrist country with a distrust of Washington.Republican politicians aren’t loved anymore than Democratic ones.Right now the party in power is getting the brunt of the anger as it rightly should.There is no passionate groundswell to have Boehner become majority leader of the House.Independents like Scott Brown will be the wave of the future. Obama needs to run to the center and he’ll be fine.
Comment by Joe — 1/31/2010 @ 3:53 pm
“Imagine rather than screaming “socialist” every day since Obamacare has been an issue, the GOP had calmly and repeatedly countered with Ryan’s common sense health care reforms.” - Rick Moran
Please? Pretty pleae? All anyone kept pointing at was the 9 pages of bullet points that was more of a wish list, so that they could complain about how the Dem version was so big and complex. Can’t really do that when the Ryan bill is 248 pages, and tons of it is “See this sextion X in a different document”.
If everyone would offer up the best ideas they have, who knows, maybe we can get something useful out of the politicians.
Comment by KenGirard — 2/1/2010 @ 3:29 pm
People didn’t dislike Clinton in 94. In fact, he won easily in 96. The GOP still kicked ass in 94 because they espoused conservative ideas. This time around, we have a vastly more leftist President, piles and piles of debt, another failed socialist take-over of health care and a vastly more educated electorate (thanks to internet and conservative media outlets). The economy isn’t growing, foreclosures are getting worse, unemployment is awful and soon the corporate real estate bubble will pop. This year’s mid-terms will be a pasting. Oh, Scott Brown ran as a conservative, not an independent. He stayed away from GOP moniker..but that is good because GOP hasn’t been conservative for years. Peeps like Rick, McCain et al think being a squish wins when we all know that conservatism wins (ask all those conservative Dems who won in red states).
Comment by Bruceinsocal — 2/2/2010 @ 10:52 am
Obama is a Socialist who reads Miranda and coddles terrorists.Well there goes that narrative.
Republicans. Lying jerks. Again.
Comment by Richard Bottoms — 2/2/2010 @ 2:13 pm