Events are slowly starting to spin out of control in the Ukraine.

Action on several fronts include:

Glen from Instapundit links to this excellent post from Daniel W. Drezner who paints a rather disturbing picture of what’s going on there.

“In a somewhat ominous development, the AP’s Anna Melnichuk reports that Kuchma is calling for an end to the protestors’ blockade of government buildings in Kiev, calling it a “gross violation of the law.” In Kiev, Post-modern Clog posts that, “Everybody is buzzing right now about martial law.” To be fair, he also notes, “at this point it’s only a report of discussions and nothing more solid than that.” Still, Yushchenko now seems more cognizant of this possibility.”

How involved is Vladimir Putin in these maneuverings?

Logically, given Russia’s keen interest in maintaining the Ukraine as a buffer state between it and the west, Putin needs a friend in Kiev. But how far is he willing to go to secure that friend? This from “Time” (via Drezner):

“Sources well briefed on Kremlin affairs tell TIME that as protests in Kiev gathered momentum, Putin urged the much-discredited outgoing President Leonid Kuchma, eager to secure a safe retirement amid charges of corruption and political violence, to declare Yanukovych the winner. The sources say Putin made it clear that Moscow would not accept a Yushchenko victory. If the Russian President sticks to that hard line, it could provoke serious trouble, abroad and at home.”

Putin seems to be making the classic error that all despots make when confronted with authentic democratic movements; they think that military force can somehow put the freedom genie back in the bottle. By threatening marshal law, Putin endangers his relationship with Washington in a way that his crackdowns recently on the press and his grab for power from other Russian states does not.

The US was willing to let Putin off with mild (some would say too mild) protests regarding his recent consolidation of power. But Ukraine is a sovereign state that has recently tried to move closer to NATO and the west. Forcing his hand-picked leader down the throats of the Ukrainian people will provoke outrage both here and in Europe; especially “new” European states like Poland. Already, Lech Walesa and Vaclav Havel have weighed in on the Ukrainian situation on the side of the protestors.

Can it get any worse? Yes:

“Regional leaders supporting Prime Minister Viktor F. Yanukovich, the embattled president-elect of Ukraine, pushed back firmly on Sunday against the opposition candidate’s quest for the presidency, signaling an intention for the eastern section of the country to seek autonomy next month if the political impasse persists.” (NY Times 11/29)

Secession would be an absolute disaster for the Ukranian people. If Putin were looking for an excuse to send in troops, there could be no greater casus belli for direct Russian intervention than civil war. If that were to happen, relations would cool considerably between Washington and Moscow just at the time when Bush needs Russian assistance more than ever in our war on terror.

It’s difficult to see at this moment how all of this is going to play out. If Putin is serious about not allowing the opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko to be declared the winner, the chances of violent protest followed by marshal law are great. If Putin allows Yushchenko to take power, will he then encourage the breakaway of southern and eastern provinces thus precipitating a civil war necessitating Russian intervention?

Either way, Putin is in a box…a box of his own making.