What are the chances of terrorists using a nuclear weapon to attack America?

This is the question that keeps George Bush and other policy makers awake at night. Such an attack would represent the single most life altering, world shaking, nation changing catastrophe in the history of human civilization. Period.

Only the explosion of the volcano Thera 3700 years ago that destroyed several eastern Mediterranean civilizations would be comparable. That disaster was regional in nature. Given the globe straddling reach of the American economy, anything that would devastate America would cause untold suffering and upheaval in every country of the world.

According to Yossef Bodansky. the likelihood of such an attack has reached a virtual certainty. Bodansky, former director of the U.S. Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare, said in an interview with the Jerusalem Post that all of the warnings we have today indicate that a “major strike – something more horrible than anything we’ve seen before – is all but inevitable.”

“I do not have a crystal ball, but this is what all the available evidence tells us; we will have a bang,” Bodansky told the Post, adding al-Qaida is “tying up the knots” for an attack.” (WND 11/29)

The belief by some that the “dirty bomb scenario” is more likely (the effects of which would be miniscule compared to a 10 kiloton detonation of a nuclear weapon) is hardly comforting. The scenarios involving the detonation of even a crude one kiloton weapon at street level in Manhattan at midday involve enormous casualties, devastating blast effects, and panic inducing radiation.

Nuclear Detonation Scenario —Event History

Day 1 Events

A truck carrying a small nuclear weapon (1 kiloton)is detonated in the down-town area of major city.

No specific warning of the attack was given.

Major disruptions of power, water, and other critical infrastructure.

Many buildings near ground zero collapse.

Radioactive materials begin to be deposited on the ground downwind of the
detonation over the next 24 hours.

Day 2 events

Emergency responders cannot gain access to areas severely affected by the
blast for several days because of high levels of radiation from local fall ­
out.

Surrounding areas (more than 1.5 km from ground zero)do not have major
blast damage, however,mass panic ensues in this area and beyond from fear
of exposure to radiation and further attacks.

Some try to evacuate by automobile immediately following the blast, however,roads quickly clog with traffic from vehicles attempting to flee the area. Power restored to parts of the city outside the blastzone.

Day 3 events

Authorities slowly begin to regain control of the situation.Communications are
being restored. Roads outside the blast zone are still impassable due to abandoned vehicles.Inside the blast zone roads are impassable because of debris.

Most of the critical infrastructure essential to sur­vival of the population has
been restored except within the blast zone.

Refugee problem occurs because of people displaced by contamination the fallout zone.

Day 4 to year 10

Contamination of fallout zone may require relocation and decontamination. (Courtesy of the Rand Corporation)

That’s just the bare bones scenario. Some specifics would include refugee numbers in the millions, a breakdown in law and order that no army or National Guard units could deal with, a trillion dollar hit to the economy with a resulting job loss in the tens of millions, deflation, panic on a scale never seen…just about the worst parts of the bible you can think of.

And this is the best case scenario.

Imagine what the US response would be. Who would we attack? If the nuke came from Iran, North Korea, or even Pakistan, we’d be under enormous pressure—nuclear threat—-from Russia and China NOT to retaliate. Why? Fallout patterns from a US strike in all three of those countries would mean we’d be killing a lot of Russians and Chinese along with the perpetrators (not to mention friendly nations like S. Korea, Iraq, Turkey, and others). At the very least, nuclear tensions would skyrocket and we’d truly be “on the brink.” One miscalculation on anybody’s part and industrialized civilization would be destroyed, perhaps never to rise again.

It’s pretty obvious to even a casual observer like me that this scenario must be prevented at all costs. The loss of life, liberty, and property would be so great it’s doubtful that after emerging from such an attack, the United States would be recognizable to any one of us. And that’s something worth fighting to prevent.