Where are you going?
Where are you going?
Can you take me with you?
For my hand is cold
And needs warmth
Where are you going?

Far beyond where the horizon lies
Where the horizon lies
And the land sinks into mellow blueness
Oh please, take me with you

“By My Side” from “Godspell” Music and New Lyrics by Stephen Schwartz.

A few days back, Gerard Vanderleun of “American Digest” wrote a fascinating post on the future of blogs:

“For good or ill, blogs are a force to be reckoned with on the national and international scene. What remains to be seen is whether or not blogs, as a medium—or better still “a multi-medium of the multitudes”—can build upon this position, bootstrapping themselves into ever widening spheres of influence. This is, as is the manner of blogs, already happening on an ad hoc basis. It will continue to happen at an accelerating pace. But it can be accelerated through applications of capital, organization, planning, and most importantly, intent.”

Gerard brings up Rathergate and points out that more than anything, it was a fluke; a confluence of events that led to blowback />
“In a reactive medium such as blogging, one brings one’s opinions and expertise (limited, expansive or non-existent) to any question that engages one’s interest. At times, the confluence of these factors—most famously in the CBS False Documents scandal—creates a situation that causes what is sometimes referred to as “blowback” in the analog world. But these cases are still few and far between since there are not that many situations where the elements (documents, pdf files, computer and typewriter and word processing knowledge) combine to form a perfect storm of blogging blowback.”

Spot on. Blogger triumphalism regarding Rather’s retirement was, I believe, misplaced. I tried to make the point here that Rather was preferable to what we’re going to get with the next generation of MSM anchors. And for all the writing and analytical talent out there, how many bloggers are going to become real, working journalists? Vanderleun makes a similar point:

“Individual bloggers typically begin their pages with a few friends and family and slowly build readership, if they build it at all, over months and years. Three focused group blogs bannered at the top of newyorktimes.com would achieve in a matter of weeks a readership that most bloggers only dream of. And corporate bloggers would also have something most bloggers don’t even begin to dream of, a paycheck. NYTimesBlogs.com would also enjoy many other advantages that could, left to their own devices, take them to the top of the Technorati 100 and reduce the readership of other pages across the board.

At the moment, the news gathering organization of something like The New York Times is focused on delivering news and ‘analysis’ from a thousand different sources to a newsroom and from there to patterns of ink pressed into bleached wood pulp. If that focus shifts, only a little bit, to the electronic streams of blogs the effect on blog readership will be profound. Currently, the Blogosphere is relying on the fact that organizations like the Times are square and retrograde.”

Allah (bless his departed soul) also points out the limitations of blogs as a “hobby” and how we react to “real” news organizations:

“And kudos for at least recognizing that bloggers, at present, are almost wholly parasitic on the MSM. Instapundit had an item last week about how blogs are supposedly kicking Brian Williams’s ass, and two things immediately occurred to me. 1) If not for Williams and co., we wouldn’t have jackshit for material. And 2) even if we are kicking his ass, so what? Why the incessant triumphalism? To paraphrase what Chris Rock said of the O.J. acquittal, where’s my kicking-Brian-Williams’s-ass prize?”

(Note: Allah’s “mystery” disappearance turns out not to be a mystery…he got bored.)

So…what’s next? Given the impetus blogs have given corporate media, I have no doubt that within the next 12 months we see some attempt to co-opt blogs popularity either by imitation or by absorption. Will Glenn Reynolds quit his day job? How about Charles Johnson? Those two gentlemen could very well find themselves asked to join some kind of corporate blogging empire. Will that change the way they post? The frequency? Their point of view? Will that be the goal of new bloggers like me, starting a blog like we started garage bands 30 years ago?

Come to think of it, the maturation of Rock ‘n Roll might be a model for the blogosphere in the near future. Who’s going to sell out? Who’s going to stay “pure?” Would it matter to you if Ace or Frank J. used their site for beer ads or laundry soap instead of books?

So many questions with no answers. Gerard wrestles with the idea of this “revolution:

“Recently some wag secure in her mainstream media “career” remarked that revolutions don’t happen when people don’t leave their houses. In the past, that may have been true. But in the past, the controls of revolution were always found somewhere outside the house. This is not necessarily any longer the case. Through rudimentary linking and interactivity, blogs are able to raise money, promote candidates and issues to victory in elections, send supplies to those in need a continent or a world away, and even shake the foundations of governments around the world. If the seeds of revolution are in the ideas of men, then blogs are the means to scatter these seeds far and wide with little regard for borders. Revolutionary ideas and information once needed, at the very least, printing presses, paper, and committed couriers. No longer.”

“Shake the foundations of government…” One only need look at Iran and the affect blogs are having on that oppressed country to see how the radioactive mullahs are terrified of blogggers. Like the audio cassettes that helped overthrow the Shah 25 years ago, blogs are sowing the seeds of destruction of the Iranian government today. And once again, Gerard struggles to define “what it all means.”

“Having gained traction in the attention of many, blogging now needs to blog forward towards a greater focus. It needs to move from being reactive towards the active through a kind of Aikido point interactivity. The power implicit in the raw number of the now fully engaged minds of the Blogosphere make this possible. The fuel source will continue to be the strength of observable bias in which we are, to quote Mike Godwin of Godwin’s Law, “Mainlining each other’s thoughts.” A medium that broadcasts a vast spectrum of insights and knowledge will always be a medium worthy of attention. A medium that can learn to focus that broad spectrum is a medium transform the world far beyond the one to many broadcast model that has dominated the mediascape for centuries.”

I don’t know where this new media is going. All I know is I want to try and keep up with it. In her sci-fi masterpiece “Where Late the Sweet Birds Sang” Kate Wilhelm posits a world where humanity has virtually destroyed itself and reproduces itself through cloning. After a few generations, the clones lose much of their essential humanity. Their emotions, their analytical skills, their originality fade away. It’s left to a 12 year old boy, conceived naturally by two clones, to reinvigorate the human race and start the regeneration process that will lead humans to a new awareness of themselves.

Blogs are changing the way people live. Will they simply fade away? Morph into something else? Or will they lead the human race towards a radically altered perception of the possible?

Anyway you look at it, things are going to change very quickly.