One of the things I love about blogging is the feeling of having your fingers on the pulse of events as they transpire half a world away. Simply by following a few links or googling up information from sources both familiar and obscure, you can get the feeling that you have an understanding of large events; that you see the outlines of the big picture forming right before your eyes.

It’s an illusion, of course. Sometimes events move too fast or information is disseminated through biased sources or filtered through a prism of self-interest or disinformation. Tyring to sort through it is kind of like putting together pieces of a puzzle. Sometimes you can get more information from what is not said, or what action is not taken. And that’s where judgement, experience, and context come into play.

As an example, take the events currently transpiring in the middle east as a result of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Like ripples in a pond, the consequences of this action by still unknown perpetrators are spreading through the entire region, subtlely changing alliances, affecting governments both large and small, and revealing weaknesses in one major player-Syria-that heretofore were hidden from view.

For nearly 30 years Syria has had occupying troops in Lebanon. This fact has not only colored politics in that long-suffering country, but has been the proximate cause for literally hundreds of terrorists attacks on Israel over the last quarter century. Syria, a secular dictatorship of the same type of Baathist thugs that ran Saddam ’s torture chambers, have cozied up to terrorist organizations like Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The terrorists operate with impunity with Syria’s blessing (they help keep the Christian minority in line). Meanwhile, Syria manipulates Lebanese politics so that they can maintain their troops in the vitally strategic Bekkaa Valley. The valley borders the northern tip of Israel and has been a staging area for terrorist strikes in the past as well as a training ground for terrorists groups around the world.

Hariri’s assassination may turn out to be the catalyst that overturns Syrian control of Lebanon, brings democracy to that country, and fatally weaken Hamas, Hezbollah, and the rest of the terrorist groups that are currently using Lebanon as a safe haven.

If this scenario plays out, it would be the biggest victory in the war on terror yet.

Rafik Hariri was a much respected political figure in the jumble that is Lebanese politics. He favored giving women and young people the vote as well as reconciling with Lebanon’s Christian minority. Although a Shia Muslim by birth, he had a knack for drawing support from all segements of Lebanese society. Two recent events may have sealed the former Prime Minister’s fate. On January 31st, Hariri met with the Pope in Rome, an event obviously opposed by the islamofascists who saw the meeting as confirmation that Hariri was cozying up to the Christian minority. Then, the very next day Hariri gave an interview to the Lebanon Daily Star in which he said he was “not concerned with sectarian issues” and was friends with everyone.

This may have been the last straw for the radical Islamic terrorists who are very concerned with sectarian issues, wanting more than anything to have Shar’ia law govern the country.

The question of who carried out the assassination has been complicated by the fact that some experts believe that none of the local groups of terrorists would have been capable of carrying out such a sophisticated operation. This would seem to point the finger at Syria. The United States thinks so. We’ve just withdrawn our Ambassador Margaret Scobey with the State Department saying “Yesterday’s bombing calls into question the stated reason behind the presence” of Syrian security forces in Lebanon… ”

The ripples are starting to spread.

The assassination, coupled with Syria’s continued brazen interference in Iraq’s politics, have now forced our hand. The withdrawl of the Ambassador in and of itself would not be overly significant except that now the Administration is talking about additional sanctions up to and including the freezing of Syrian assets in the United States. And if we could get Western Europe to go along with such a move, Syria would find itself broke and isolated. This would force President Assad into making some rather unpleasant (for him) decisions. If he were forced to withdraw his troops from Lebanon, it would certainly weaken his position at home (getting the military angry at you by humiliating them is not a good thing in a dictatorship).

In addition, his open support for terrorist groups would virtually cease thus making things very difficult for Hamas and Hezzbolah to maintain their positions in Lebanon. If that were to occur, the road to democracy in Lebanon would be wide open. Judging by the funeral yesterday for Hariri, the Lebanese appear ready to grasp the opportunity:

Sunni marched with Shia, and Druze with Christian, as the factions that slaughtered each other in the 1975-1990 civil war paid their respects as one.

West Beirut’s alleyways echoed to the wailing of mourners as Mr Hariri’s funeral cortege snaked through crowds, showered with rice thrown in tribute from balconies.

Sheikhs and smart business executives, trendy teenagers and frail pensioners all massed together. Christian church bells rang out and muezzins called from mosques as the cortege approached Mr Hariri’s last resting place – a grave outside the vast, new Mohammed al-Amin mosque which towers over Martyrs’ Square. ...

More ripples.

As a result of all this, Syria seems to be cozying up to the only other power in the region who could keep them from becoming totally isolated in the event of some strong actions by the United States:

TEHRAN (Feb. 16) – Iran and Syria, who both are facing pressure from the United States, said Wednesday they will form a ‘’united front’’ to confront possible threats against them, state-run television reported.

‘’In view of the special conditions faced by Syria, Iran will transfer its experience, especially concerning sanctions, to Syria,’’ Mohammad Reza Aref, Iran’s first vice president, was quoted as saying after meeting Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Naji Otari.

‘’At this sensitive point, the two countries require a united front due to numerous challenges.’‘

While Syria claims the Iranian demarche is not aimed at the United States, it’s pretty clear that President Assad is seeking some leverage against the coming storm. And while US military action against Syria is probably not in the cards, US support for a nascent democracy next door in Lebanon would cause Assad enormous headaches in his own country, especially after the Syrian people saw ex-patriot Iraqi’s living in Syria voting in last month’s election; a right they cannot exercise.

While it’s still not clear how all of this is going to play out, the Hariri assassination has started a chain of events that, if brought to successful conclusion, could only mean good news for US policy in the middle east. A peaceful, democratic Lebanon would make Israel feel a little safer, moving the peace process along. And one more democracy in the middle east would mean one less place the terrorists could operate with impunity.

The murderers of Rafik Hariri may have sown the seeds that will yield them bitter fruit. It would be ironic indeed if that single stone cast into a pond caused a series of ripples that overwhelmed the perpetrators and brought us one step closer to our goal of democratizing the middle east.

Note: Much of the background on Lebanese politics is from a series of posts by the guys over at Doubletooth Great job!