Handicapping the upcoming vote for the next pope is fraught with uncertainty. Not only is the College of Cardinals a more secretive group than the CIA, NSA, and FBI put together, but since John Paul II has been in declining health for years, it appears that several leading candidates have had the opportunity to line up support among their colleagues by staffing their own bureaucratic enclaves with Cardinals who could vote for them when the time came.

My personal belief is that the next pope will not come from the pastoral wing of the college. This would seem to leave out several candidates who would make excellent Popes but have had the political misfortune of serving as Archbishop of a diocese while the bureaucrats in the Vatican were free to maneuver for power by appointing allies to key positions in one of the many secretariats.

This is a very old game played best by the Italians. And since 35% of the College is made up Italian Cardinals, chances are pretty good that the papacy will revert to form and once again the Chair of St. Peter will be occupied by an Italian Cardinal.

The big question is will the Italians be able to agree on a single candidate? As a voting bloc, they potentially hold enormous power. But unless they can coalesce around one aspirant, the chances are that a dark horse will emerge.

Here are the rules by which the College will elect a new pope as amended by John Paul II himself in 1996:

1. The voting usually begins about 3 weeks after the pontiff has been laid to rest

2. Votes are held twice in the morning and once in the afternoon

3. If no cardinal has been elected by two-thirds majority after a certain number of ballots (30), the cardinals may agree by absolute majority (half + 1) to elect the Pope by an absolute majority instead of a two-thirds majority

4. Rather than stay in uncomfortable, makeshift quarters in the Papal Palace, the Cardinals will stay in the Domus Sanctae Marthae, hotel-style accommodation in Vatican City

5. The only remaining method of electing the Pope is by scrutiny, ie, silent ballot—the methods of election by acclamation and by committee have been excluded (but were rarely used)

6. The older cardinals are still unable to enter the conclave, but they are invited to take an active role in the preparatory meetings

7. The rules on secrecy are tougher .

Something to watch for: If no candidate has been elected after the first 3 or 4 days, the chances are very good the next pope will be another non-Italian. But the Italians have been pointing toward this election for 26 years. In some ways, they see the papacy has their own private preserve. In my opinion, they’ve already settled on a candidate and will back him unless or until the College makes it known that they wish to go in another direction.

Here’s a rundown of some of the top candidates:

THE ITALIANS

Cardinal Angelo Sodano

Age: 77

Position: Secretary of State

On the plus side: He’s the right age as apparently the College may not wish to elect a pope that will serve longer than a decade or so. And he’s very powerful, occupying the second highest office in the Vatican. And he’s a conservative which almost all the Cardinals are given that 80 of the 120 were appointed by John Paul II.

Minuses: Could be too visible. Plus some of the non-Italians have been upset with his administration. His critics have called him a dry bureaucrat with little sense of humor.

Dionigi Tettamanzi

Age: 71

Position: Archbishop of Milan

On the Plus side: Although from the pastoral wing of the College, he’s held several bureaucratic posts in the Vatican. He’s also supported by the very conservative Opus Dei movement that advocates a “strict constructionist” approach to church dogma.

Minuses: He’s been away from the Vatican for years. He may be too conservative. He may be too young in that the College may be looking for a caretaker pope until one of the very young (early to mid 50’s) Cardinals get a little more seasoning.

Giovanni Battista Re

Age: 72

Position: Prefect for the Congregation of Bishops

On the Plus side: Conservative. Close ally of Pope John Paul II. He’s the dark horse among the Italians but has occupied a very powerful position for nearly 10 years. He may have the support of the curate due to his being able to appoint so many allies to positions of influence.

Minuses: Not been a priest in the pastoral sense in that he’s never run a diocese. And for as many friends as he’s made, he has just as many opponents passed over. Also, may be too conservative.

THE NON-ITALIANS:

Francis Arinze (Nigerian)

Age: 72

Position: Pontifical Council for Inter-religious Dialog

On the Plus side: If the College wishes to put a third world face on the papacy, Cardinal Arinze is the front-runner. He has been extremely visible as someone who has tried to reach out to Muslims. In this age of Terror, that could be very significant. He’s also extremely well liked personally. And the fact that he’s black could have political advantages despite his conservatism.

Minuses: Many feel the African church, which has grown from 15 million in 1960 to over 120 million today, is too young for a pope. Also, the fact that he’s black may in fact work against him because of racial prejudice in the US and Latin America. And finally, the African church has grown so much because it has incorporated some of the native animist themes into its ceremonies which does not sit well with many more conservative Cardinals.

Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga (Honduras)

Age: 62

Position: Archbishop of Tegucigalpa

On the Plus Side: The second largest voting bloc of Cardinals is from Latin America. He has chaired the Latin American Council of Bishops so would be in a position of knowing most of the Latin American electors. A strong spokesman for the poor (he’s been an outspoken advocate for debt forgiveness in the third world), he supports decentralization of church authority which has been a bone of contention for years between John Paul II and the bishops.

Minuses: Too young. Has been outspoken against the media for its coverage of the pedophile scandals. And many Latin American bishops have been tainted with the charge of supporting “liberation theology” which supported Marxist principles to redistribute wealth in the desperately poor countries of Latin America. In short, it’s probably not his turn.

Christoph Schoenborn (Austrian)

Age: 59

Position: Archbishop of Vienna

On the plus side: An intellectual with a first class mind, Schoenborn is the leading non-Italian European candidate. Given the decline of the Church in Europe, this may be a direction the College would wish to go. He’s a conservative who helped write the latest version of the universal catechism. If the college is looking for a genuine thinker, Schoenborn would probably be elected.

Minuses: Too young. May be too closely identified with the pedophile scandals as he had to deal with one involving his predecessor in his own Archdiocese. The fact that the Austrian church is the most divided in Europe between liberals and conservatives could rule him out because of the polarization factor.

Other very dark horses include Cardinal Ratzinger, a German, who has taken strong, conservative stands on matters of faith and Cardinal Claudio Hummes a Brazilian who’s made the transition from advocate of liberation theology to born again conservative. Both men have support but would appear to be too polarizing to gain anything but an absolute majority of Cardinals. if the vote goes more than 2 weeks, one of these dark horses or even a greater unknown could step in “stand in St. Peter’s place.”

Cross-Posted at Blogger News Network