This could be good news. Then again, it may be too late. But in an 11th hour bid to keep the constitutional process alive, the Sunnis have apparently offered a “compromise

The counterproposal came in an afternoon news conference held by Tariq Hashimi, secretary general of the Iraqi Islamic Party, who said he would be meeting with U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad later Saturday.

Hashimi said a plan by Shiites and Kurds to have parliament approve the document Sunday—with or without Sunni concurrence—was too hasty.

“This is unfair,” he said. “They cannot put us in such a corner where either we agree or that’s it. The draft did not contain what we had asked for.”

This “not so fast” ploy is being played out under what has to be intense US pressure on all parties to get together and break the impasse. The President already had called Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) leader Abdul Aziz Hakim yesterday and pleaded with him to give more ground to the Sunnis in order to reach a deal. Apparently Hakim grudgingly gave in to the President’s pleas only to have many (not all) of the Sunni negotiators throw the compromises back in his face.

That’s when Hakim decided to up the ante and announced that the draft constitution would be taken before the parliament “as is” and voted on. Since the Shia-Kurd block controls 221 out of 275 seats in parliament and only a simple majority would have been needed for passage, the wily Hakim was giving the Sunnis a stark choice; get on board or be frozen out.

Apparently, Hakim’s gamble has paid off and the Sunnis want back in. And their representatives meeting with American Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad signals that there may be a little more “give” to the Sunnis position than they’ve had previously.

The Sunnis really have little choice. Already hugely unpopular due to their domination during the Saddam years as well as their more recent support of the violent insurgency, any walkout by them could throw the entire country into chaos – with violence directed toward their communities by Shia militias who vastly outnumber the Sunni minority.

The US military is worried enough that they’ve made arrangements to augment the number of troops in case of massive unrest as a result of a failure to reach an agreement on the constitution:

While outwardly declaring optimism over the political process, the US administration appeared to be preparing for its unraveling with urgent plans being drawn up to send more large-scale military reinforcements. The Pentagon had announced that two battalions of the 82nd Airborne, about 1,500 troops, will be deployed. But according to senior American sources, a brigade of some 5,000 will be sent to combat the violent fallout from the constitution crisis.

Those troops were probably earmarked for Iraq anyway in that there was a plan already in place to increase US troop strength in the lead-up to the referendum on the constitution on October 15. And while domestic pressure would increase on the President to get American forces out of Iraq in the event of a full fledged civil war, that eventuality is thankfully becoming more remote.

The two largest Shia militias – Moqtada al Sadr’s Mahdi militia and Hakim’s SCIRI’s Badr Brigade – are rivals for power in the new Iraqi government. But in a twist of irony, al Sadr can’t afford all out war with the Badr Brigades because of the latter’s much larger size and Hakim needs al Sadr and his supporters to make any Iraqi government work. The two are caught in a mutual dance where all out war between them could doom them both.

Would they combine to slaughter the Sunnis? The Sunnis have their own militias (many of which are involved in the insurgency already) and could make any such conflict troublesome for the Shias. The key must be found in the new federalism being proposed by the Shias in the constitution. Sunni leaders are worried that if strong, autonomous states are formed with the Kurds in the North and Shias in the south, any Sunni state will be squeezed out of oil revenue as well as other economic benefits.

Their fears may be justified. That’s why the Sunni compromise may be the key to success. The Sunnis wish to delay debate on any federalism issues for two years. From their point of view, it makes eminently good sense. They want to see how Sunnis will be treated in any new government before they commit to a federalist system. My guess would be that there will be enormous pressure placed on the Shias by the US to accept this compromise. It won’t bring all the Sunnis on board, but it should bring enough that the constitution could claim support among all elements of Iraqi society.

Any way you look at it, the next few hours will be crucial in the life of the new Iraq. In the end, let’s hope they all realize that in order to live together, this constitution will have to be a first step.