The Los Angeles Angels pitcher Francisco Rodriguez celebrates his team’s 5-3 victory over the New York Yankees in Game 5 of the American League Division Series in Anaheim on Monday night

“Pitching, defense, and speed wins championships” is one of those baseball truisms that in recent years has been proven to be not so true. Last year’s champs, the Boston Red Sox, clubbed their way to a World Series victory over the Cardinals with sheer firepower – an offensive display of devastating proportions that bulldozed opponents with a dizzying succession of extra base hits and home runs.

But it looks like “small ball” is back in vogue this year – at least for the American League Championship Series. ALCS opponents Chicago and Los Angeles appear to be evenly matched in many respects but especially in the pitching, defense, and speed departments.

OFFENSE

While the White Sox finished fourth best in all of baseball in total team home runs, they are not considered a power-hitting team. However, if there is one significant edge to either team in this series, it is in the round tripper department as the Angels finished with more than 25% fewer dingers than the Chisox.

Both teams had virtually the same batting average, same number of extra base hits, and the same on-base percentage. Los Angeles had more walks and fewer strikeouts. The White Sox had more sacrifice bunts.

In the speed department, Los Angeles led the league in stolen bases while the White Sox finished up the season in third place and in a base stealing slump. One must give the SB advantage to LA both because the Sox are in a funk and because of the Angels catcher Benji Molina who has one of the best arms in the league. Couple that with the fact that Sox pitchers are uniformly slow to the plate and that Chisox backstop A.J. Pierzynski possesses only an adequate arm and you have the potential for a huge series-changing advantage for LA.

For the Sox to win, it may come down to keeping Chone Figgins, who led the league in steals, and some of the other LA speedsters off the bases as much as possible. If not, they may run rings around the White Sox.

PITCHING

As it stands right now, the White Sox have a huge advantage in starting pitching. With Bartolo Colon going down with a bad shoulder and Jarold Washburn sick with a strep throat, manager Mike Scioscia is in something of a pitching quandary. Both John Lackey and Colon pitched very well against the Sox this year while Washburn and Byrd were hit hard by Chicago. The wild card is the kid Ervin Santana who has brilliant stuff but probably won’t be able to pitch until game three in California. He blanked the Sox for his first major league victory back in July. Also, the LA pitchers may have to go on short rest for the first 2 games unless Washburn is ready on Wednesday.

On the other hand, with the White Sox sweep of the Red Sox came the luxury for manager Ozzie Guillen of being able to set his pitching staff up the way he wants to. Thus, second half phenom Jose Contreras will go in game one followed by Mark Buehrle and John Garland with Guillen having the option of pitching Contreras with three days rest on Saturday or going with Freddie Garcia.

The bullpens of the two clubs are eerily similar with excellent set up men and great closers. Even with the Angels pitching woes, they still have some great arms to throw at White Sox hitters.

INTANGIBLES

LA won the World Series in 2002 and knows what it takes to get there and win. The White Sox are hungry, confident, and perhaps even a little cocky.

But if the Sox thought there was pressure on a Division Series, it’s best they get it through their heads that the ALCS is a whole new experience as far as pressure is concerned. And that pressure will come in the first two games of the series to be played in Chicago. Given the horrendous record of the White Sox on the West Coast the last several years, both home games to open the series are almost “must win” situations. The Angels are perfectly capable of beating the White Sox three games in a row in their home park so a sweep at home for the Sox is almost a necessity.

PREDICTION

I believe the White Sox have a big advantage the first two games of the series what with LA’s pitching woes. And I see Chicago taking one of the three games played in LA next weekend.

Look for the White Sox to take the series in 6 games – all close, low scoring pitching duels with both pens performing brilliantly but long balls by the White Sox being the difference in the long run.