Ever since Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was designated by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the man who would win the election last June, many in the international community have been wondering why this relatively unknown former Mayor of Tehran was chosen to lead Iran at this juncture.
Judging by Ahmadinejad’s words and actions over the past two weeks, it could very well be that the Guardian Council of Iran – the group that runs Iran through the President – has decided that confrontation with the west and Israel is inevitable and that Ahmadinejad is just the man to lead the Iranian state to victory.
For make no mistake about what is going on in Iran. The purges of moderates from all levels of government as well as a crackdown on dissidents (which has led to rioting in several cities) and the feverish work in trying to enrich enough uranium to build several nuclear bombs all point to the Islamic theocracy expecting to be attacked militarily by either Israel and/or the United States with probably a reluctant Britain once again shouldering their burden as our best ally and giving us a hand.
Consider what has been going on just recently:
- At an anti-Zionist conference in Tehran, Ahmadinejad told those assembled that Israel should be “wiped off the map.” Coming from the head of state of a country that may be just a few months from being able to construct a nuclear weapon, it would be difficult to think of a more provocative, warlike utterance in the history of the Middle East. Clearly Ahmadinejad is baiting Israel into attacking Iran.
- Ahmadinejad has defied the so called “Big Three” of the EU - France, Germany, and Britain – who were negotiating to end Iran’s uranium enrichment program by not only restarting that program, but accelerating it. Just yesterday, Tony Blair made it clear he was fed up with Iranian intransigence on the nuclear issue. Even the French have begun to move toward a Security Council resolution and sanctions.
- Ahmadinejad announced the recall of more than 40 ambassadors and envoys, including those who sought closer ties with the west, to be replaced by hardline Islamists. In addition, he has named a total unknown to the oil ministry as well as a former head of a truck suspension company for the minister of welfare. The key being, they were sufficiently radical enough in their politics to pass the ideology test.
- Then there is this regarding their nuclear program:
Iran will process a new batch of uranium at its Isfahan nuclear plant beginning next week, despite pressure from the United States and European Union to halt all sensitive nuclear work, diplomats said on Wednesday.“Beginning next week, the Iranians will start a new phase of uranium conversion at Isfahan. They will begin feeding a new batch of uranium into the plant,†a European diplomat familiar with the result of inspections by the U.N. nuclear watchdog told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Please note that the “European diplomat” is quoting Nobel Peace Prize winning Mohamed ElBaradei’s International Atomic Energy Administration. If ElBaradei was interested in keeping the peace, don’t you think that this momentous news should have come from him? When was the incompetent fool going to let us in on the Iranian secret?
The answer is probably after the Iranians present the west with a fait accompli of a mushroom cloud over the desert – or Tel Aviv.
The latter is not a possibility of course unless the Iranians have gone completely around the bend. But the fact is – and try not to fret too much – we will have to rely on the CIA to tell us when the Iranians are close to getting the bomb.
Unfortunately, our spooks haven’t been right once in 50 years regarding nations going nuclear. They were 5 years off on when the Soviets would get theirs. They were at least 10 years off on China’s nuclear birthday party. They never saw India’s nuke coming. And they were two years off on Pakistan’s development of the bomb.
Such a track record should not inspire much confidence at the White House.
As far as Iran’s nuclear capability, the CIA is confidently predicting that the radioactive mullahs won’t have a bomb until 2010. Their most recent National Intelligence Estimate (conveniently leaked to the Washington Post and New York Times just as the Administration was making its case that Iran was a danger) says that Iran will not be able to enrich enough uranium to make a bomb until the “middle of the next decade.”
If true, this comes as a shock to the Israelis who have a little more professional view of Iranian bomb making ability:
Israeli intelligence officials estimate that Iran could be capable of producing enriched uranium within six months and have nuclear weapons within two years. Earlier this month, head of Israeli military intelligence Maj. Gen. Aharon Ze’evi said that while Iran was not currently capable of enriching uranium to build a nuclear bomb, “it is only half a year away from achieving such independent capability – if it is not stopped by the West.â€
As you can see from the LGF linked article above, we have not stopped them and they are now enriching uranium to their hearts content. As for bomb making, here’s what I wrote when the National Intelligence Estimate was leaked and contained the information that Iran was years away from making an “implosion” device:
As for constructing an “implosion†device, the bomb dropped on Hiroshima was constructed using the so called “gun design†where a sphere of U-235 sits at one end of a barrel and a smaller pellet of the material is fired into it thus achieving critical mass and detonating the bomb. This is less efficient than an implosion device but still packs a huge wallop.
The bomb we dropped on Hiroshima was of the gun design variety. It was detonated using an altimeter fuse; that is, once the bomb reached a certain height (8,000 feet) the pellet was fired into the sphere. The results were impressive. And frightening.
For a delivery system, one need look no further than the modified Shahab-3 missile, a present from Kim Il Jong and the North Koreans and a system perfectly capable of delivering a warhead to Israel or US military bases elsewhere in the Gulf.
In short, all the elements are there for an Iranian nuclear nightmare. So while the world dithers and wrings its hands, the Iranians are building. And if military action becomes necessary; that is, if the Iranians appear to be ready to deploy a nuclear weapon, the alarming fact is there isn’t much we could do about it unless we created a military coalition the likes of which hasn’t been seen since World War II.
The Iranians have dispersed their nuclear program and “hardened” their nuclear sites against both air attacks and commando raids so that even being able to take out enough of their nuclear infrastructure to set them back a few years will be extraordinarily difficult. The chances are that the Iranians have built so much redundancy into their plans that we would have to wipe out a sizable percentage of that infrastructure to have any material affect on their capability.
This would leave basically two options; use nuclear weapons ourselves to destroy their capability or invade and affect regime change. The former would brand us as international outcasts. We would become a pariah nation. The latter option of invasion would take a considerably larger force than we would have available. Even a NATO force would need French and German participation to be effective. Anyone want to lay odds on either of those two countries participating in an invasion of Iran?
Iran knows all of this as well as we do which is why they are forcing confrontation now. With the US tied down in Iraq, defeatism and timidity running through Europe like a disease, Britain a tired yet still gallant ally and Israel are all we would have to help us in trying to forestall the Iranians going nuclear.
Perhaps sanctions will bring down Ahmadinejad’s government. Perhaps the whole rotten edifice of the Guardian Council and their Revolutionary Guard enforcers will sink under the weight of their own oppressive rule. Both are remote possibilities at this point. All we can hope for is continuing international pressure along with at least the threat of military action which could lead Iran to strike some kind of deal on processing uranium.
It’s not much, but realistically, it’s probably the best we can hope for.
9:40 pm
One other hope, if seemingly unrealistic, the people of Iran say no more and get rid of the mullahs. Then with a democracy the problem can be handled like any other problem in a democracy, a compromise.
10:57 pm
It will be interesting to see how the Iranian people react to their neighbors in Iraq as they flourish in democracy (assuming they do, the train has left the station but there be bandits about).
International pressure? With “allies” like France and Germany, I guess I’m not too confident. Spineless UN resolutions that will be uninforcible would only add insult to injury.
10:58 pm
In 1925, Adolph Hitler published Mein Kampf, which laid out in plain language his rabid hatred of the Jews and his plans for world conquest. The book was mostly ignored by educated people outside of Germany, who considered it too over the top to be taken seriously.
In a similar vein, Iran has been saying some very scary things for a long time. So long, in fact, that a lot of people have tuned it out. In May 2004, for example MEMRI reported on a speech in which a prominent official claimed that Iran had a “strategy drawn up for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilization and for the uprooting of the Americans and the English.” The same official also noted that Iran had identified “29 sensitive sites in the U.S. and the West” for attack.
Are the Iranians really that crazy? The fact that they’re hunkering down is a bad sign. On the other hand, all this confrontation could just be designed to keep average Iranians from thinking too hard about what a miserable hole their country has become. We just don’t know. But assuming that Iran’s anti-American, anti-Western, anti-modern theocrats share our priorities and think like we do would be very dangerous.
12:54 am
While Iran may be bluffing on the world stage, I don’t think that Israel will stand by and wait for the attack…after all it is their country that is being threatened. If the locals don’t rebel soon, it will be too late and World War III will be inevitable.
2:05 am
I think that there is going to be a confrontation with Iran with in the next 5 years. They weren’t friendly with Iraq before, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ll be openly hostile in the future. It benefits them the more the US has to commit resources to that war.
Also, Britain has evidence that Iran is behind some of the attacks on their troops.
The only question I have is – what does Iran think it can accomplish? Perhaps they hope EU/Britain/US will blink because their committed to Iraq at the moment.
Another thing though – the population of Iran – has been in favor of progressive reforms. I wouldn’t be surprised if they start to riot/fight back.
Iran’s government is an abomination to its people. I wouldn’t be sad to see it go. And I was against the Iraq war.
2:31 am
Benjamin,
Unfortunately, I think the EU including Britain will continue their current course of “diplomacy” which will leave the US and Israel as the only countries to counter Iran. I keep hoping that they will come to a common agreement and at least isolate Iran, but I doubt that it will happen.
A good question regarding what they hope to accomplish with their hard line retoric. Maybe they wish to invigorate other Arab countries to their cause…
I agree with you in hoping that the suffering people rise up and overthrow the hard liners. That may be the only hope of avoiding a preventive attack by Israel.
4:42 am
It does appear that we will be at war with Iran soon. I agree with those who feel Israel will not wait but will attack first, with nuclear weapons, and do as much damage, right off the bat, as they possibly can. The US will have no alternative but to assist Israel. There is a chance that Great Britain will join us also, but as I said, the chance is slim.
Iran has painted itself into a corner from which,only death and destruction can extracate them.
They’ve been pushing for this for sometime. Soon, they will get it.
“Longstreet”
9:15 am
It has long been my opinion that Iran has been, correctly, a primary objective in the islamofacist war which made the battles in Afghanistan and Iraq absolutely necessary. An administration could hardly come out and say that publicly, let alone try to explain it to the left.
9:33 am
I think Deagle is correct to a certain degree. I think Iran is doing what defensive linemen do in football. They are trying to draw Israel offsides. If Israel is drawn in, Iran will look almost justified in the eyes of the League of Arab Nations.
Tony
9:37 am
Deag & Tony:
That rant by Ahmadinejad was the tipoff. It was absolutely shocking. I’ve seen attempts to downplay it (especially in an OpEd in today’s NY Times) but the words and meaning were unmistakable. Iran means to destroy Israel and they are daring the Israelis to try and take out their nuke capability.
I don’t see how you can interpret it any other way. And I’m sure the Israelis don’t. After all, they can’t afford to.
10:37 am
Israel’s nuclear forces are primarily land-based and therefore vulnerable to a surprise attack. However, Israel also possesses three diesel-electric Dolphin class submarines, which were manufactured by Germany. The subs are capable of launching cruise missiles, and some reports claim that these missiles are nuclear-armed.
In the past, Israel has maintained a policy of deliberate ambiguity about its nuclear capabilities, partly to avoid provoking its neighbors into acquiring nuclear weapons. This policy has failed. With Iran threatening to “wipe Israel off the map,” it’s time for Israel to go public about its nuclear weapons, especially its sea-based weapons. The only way for Israel to deter Iran is by stating unambiguously what will happen in the event of a surprise attack.
8:48 pm
The biggest stumbling block to doing anything about Iran is two-fold, namely China and Russia. Particularly China. They’ve made energy deals with the Iranian government as have the Russians. The biggest mistake the U.S. has made was letting China into the position they are in now to begin with, i.e. China owning a worrying amount of U.S. Treasuries and who are not above using economics as a weapon.
Also, we simply just don’t have the manpower to effectively threaten Iran. Using air power alone isn’t going to cut it. Any air strikes against the regime would only have a temporary effect at best.
5:03 am
Frog Flambée
Well, the rioting has been going on in Paris for over a week… and, unless the French government changes its trademark limp-wristed approach to the situation, this chaos will no doubt continue indefinitely. Sadly, the only voice of reason …
1:52 am
Iran seem to blackmail their way though the UN and all the other countries.Most likely the arab nation are fed up with ties with Europe Union.and United States. Isreal was Gods plan for the end.We can”t change it. All this base on End time story to bring an shortage of oil and food to all countries for a Huge battle World War 3 or Armageddon it’s on my countdown watch and a showdown as the clock tick away. The Best thing to do is pray for little Isreal to fight like King David again
5:58 am
[...] Ahmadinejad’s cleansing of what he sees as “moderate” influences in the foreign service and the ministries did not sit well with the pragmatists who saw their main piplelines that enabled their power (not to mention cutting off their access to ill gotten gains; Rafsanjani is considered the richest man in Iran – not something one achieves on a government salary) closed off to them. [...]