It hasn’t been pretty these last few months watching as the Lebanese try to turn their enthusiastic participation in last springs round of parliamentary elections into the nuts and bolts of forging a consensus government. The sectarianism, factionalism, regionalism, and even the national loyalties of the main participants have all contributed to what amounts to a stalemate in efforts to create a stable government based on the popular will of the people.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that none of the principals entered into this process with their eyes closed and most – with a couple of notable exceptions – have maintained a remarkable patience with the process despite provocations from both inside and outside the country.

As it stands now, there are several hurdles to be overcome in order for a united Lebanon to move forward toward building a stable democratic state. Here are just a few of them.

SYRIA

Demonstrating a stupidity that could very well lead to his undoing, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has continued his violent meddling in the internal affairs of his next door neighbor.

Last summer, 2 high profile assassinations and one assassination attempt roiled the country as a prominent anti-Syrian journalist and the long time head of the Lebanese Communist Party were slain and an attempt was made on the life of an outspoken anti-Syrian MP. Both the French and US governments pointed the finger at Syria

Assad is in a tight spot politically. The elites in the civilian government and military are unhappy with him because of Syria’s humiliating exit from Lebanon. Not only that, he has the United Nations breathing down his neck as a special prosecutor attempts to unravel the threads of Syrian involvement in the assassination of Lebanese nationalist Rafiq Hariri. Two developments on that front do not bode well for Assad. First, the old Druze warlord Walid Jumblatt, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, has called for an expansion of the UN probe to include the assassinations and bombings from last summer. This should put even more pressure on Syria to cooperate in the investigation, something that has been noticeably lacking from the highest levels of the government. There is probably a very good reason for this; Syrian complicity in the violence goes all the way to Assad himself.

Second, both the Egyptians and the Saudis are on board with a process that would limit Assad’s meddling in Lebanese affairs and guarantee Lebanese sovereignty. The intervention by these Arab states will probably mean that Assad will have to get serious about cutting ties to his Lebanese surrogates as well as prevent his intelligence service from interfering in Lebanon’s internal affairs. The Lebanese also want certain security guarantees to prevent a repeat of Syrian occupation that lasted a quarter of a century.

THE HARIRI TRIBUNAL

Last Monday, the new UN special prosecutor in the Hariri assassination probe Serge Brammertz who has taken over for Detlev Mehlis began the task of sifting through the voluminous evidence gathered by his predecessor that implicates high level Syrians as well as several prominent Lebanese in the assassination of the former Prime Minister. In addition, UN Undersecretary General for Legal Affairs, Nicolas Michel is in the country this week to negotiate what form the tribunal will take as well as whether or not its mandate will include more recent assassinations than the February, 2005 killing of Hariri.

There are several sticking points. Some Lebanese factions do not want the expanded mandate while others want the judges to be all Lebanese. There is also the continuing question of Syrian cooperation which has been paltry at best.

At bottom, there is fear. Because smack in the middle of all of this maneuvering are Hizballah and their allies the Amal militia.

Hizballah doesn’t want a tribunal at all or at least one that has any international representation. “The Resistance” as they are known in Lebanon (referring to their war against Israel) would just as soon have the whole issue of an international probe go away. Despite protestations to the contrary, they appear to have dual loyalties to Lebanon and their patrone in Damascus. Assad’s intelligence service supplies Hizballah with arms and funnels money from Iran to the group. That and the Syrian President’s hard line stance against Israel makes Hizballah an extraordinarily difficult group to do business with.

CABINET CRISIS

As if to prove that point, Hizballah has engineered a cabinet crisis by walking out and not participating in the last 6 meetings. While not paralyzing the government, it has made the cabinet’s decisions much more difficult and has opened the March 14th Movement (the coalition that banded together last spring to oust the Syrians) to withering criticism from the Shi’ite religious parties.

What does Hizballah want? They would like nothing better than to keep their guns. Along with the Amal militia (and a radical Palestinian faction) Hizballah is resisting pressure from the United States and others that they disarm their militia as required under United Nations Security Council resolution 1559. The impasse over the UN resolution has been exacerbated by Hizballah’s insistence that the Hariri probe be limited and that it not include any international judges.

What is Hizballah’s game? The terrorists are caught between a rock and a hard place. They would like nothing more than to participate fully in the Lebanese government. But in order to do so, they will eventually have to compromise on the issue of their militia. Heroes to many Lebanese especially in the South where Israel continues to defend itself against attacks, Hizballah sees a political trap in giving up its weapons and handing security in that vital area over to the regular Lebanese army. Essentially, the terrorists will lose their power base and be weakened. Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hizballah’s political arm and spiritual guru has indicated compromise is still possible on the group’s weapons but not much progress has been made.

The Palestinian issue is a different matter especially now that Hamas has emerged victorious. Recently, an incident occurred where two Lebanese soldiers were shot by Palestinian hotheads. This has spurred the cabinet to action and there is a real possibility that the Palestinians will be allowed to keep their arms to patrol the refugee camps but prevented from any armed forays outside the camps. If this occurs, Israel will be mightily displeased given the proximity of the camps to Israeli territory.

Something similar may end up happening with Hizballah. It is the thorniest issue facing the cabinet and no compromise will come easily. And until the outlines of that compromise emerges, it is unlikely that the Hizballah ministers will find their way back to the table.

INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE

There are some factions in Lebanese politics that see the United Nations and especially the United States as meddling in the internal affairs of the country. Some of that is based on a fear of what shape the Lebanese government will take – more secular and less bellicose toward Israel. Others are genuinely offended at what they see as the heavy hand of Washington and Paris trying to pressure various factions to compromise.

This week, Saad Hariri, son of the late Prime Minister has very quietly come to Washington to discuss a host of issues with the American government. He met yesterday with Secretary of State Rice and will meet today with President Bush. The lack of international attention was deliberate; young Hariri has not been home to Lebanon in months because he fears for his life. If he is seen cozying up too much to Washington, it would complicate his personal political and security situation enormously.

At a leadership forum at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Hariri tried to put the best face on some faction’s split loyalty between Syria and Lebanon:

I don’t believe Hezbollah and Amal hold the interests of regional powers over those of Lebanon,” Hariri said when asked whether the two Shiite movements would rock regional stability on behalf of Iran. “There are difficult problems to be solved and discussed, but what was taboo is out in the open.” Though small, Lebanon was the only true democracy in the Arab world, and it had many values other than instability to export to its neighbors, he said.

“He who differs with the principle of putting Lebanon first will put himself at odds with the parliamentary majority,” Hariri told participants in the forum, which was titled “The Future of Democracy in Lebanon.”

Hariri also insisted that the killers of his father be brought to justice – no matter where the investigation led:

“We want the truth, not revenge. We are a people who believe that freedom is the only way of life. If they have not committed a crime, why not cooperate?” he said. “The quicker the process, the quicker this problem can be solved. I’ve always said we will accept any result from the U.N. commission. If it said people from Mars committed this crime, I will accept it. But this crime was not committed by anyone from Mars.”

“We ask for people who committed this crime to be punished,” Hariri said. “If those who did it escape with their crime, then all is lost in the region. If they are found out and punished, this sends a very strong message for the future. They will pay the price no matter who they are and how high they are.”

Hariri may indeed be a target when he returns to his home country. Just as important as his security, however, is his insistence that Lebanon solve its own problems without undue interference from the international community.

The democratic process in Lebanon has barely started. Still to come is an as yet formed council of national dialog that will deal with even thornier issues than those on the table already. Some of these include a new electoral law, the composition of the armed forces, collaborators with the Syrians during the occupation, and a host of other issues that will test both the patience and the patriotism of all the many factions in this emerging democracy.