It may prove to be the most catastrophic event in the history of human civilization.
Or not.
It may cause massive flooding of coastal cities, ruinous melting of polar ice, the desertification of massive swaths of farmland in the breadbaskets of the world, and the death of billions of people.
Or it may lead to an age of enormous plenty and peak human health unrivaled in the history of man.
The “it,” of course, is global warming. And despite the fact that a fairly robust scientific consensus has emerged, proving that the average temperature of the earth is rising and that this phenomena has been caused by human activity, there remains a dedicated group of scientific outriders who refuse to bow to the will of the majority and instead, fight a rear guard action against the forces of regulation and global cooperation.
There’s much at stake in this debate; the future of man on the planet and the free market system, not to mention the way that science itself is viewed by an ever more skeptical, disbelieving public. This last is actually the crux of the matter because in order for any solutions to the problems of climate change to be implemented, there must be a political consensus to enact the punishing laws and regulations necessary to wean ourselves from dependence on fossil fuels that most global warming advocates point to as the potential cause of climate change.
In the short term, there is a 100% chance of reduced economic activity, loss of jobs, drastic reductions in GDP growth, and what would amount to a massive change in lifestyle for Americans if the advocates get their way. If anyone tells you anything differently, do not listen to them. Many of them were the same soothing voices from the 1970’s who assured us that clean air regulations wouldn’t destroy the steel and coal industries in America. And while there were certainly other factors involved in the massive downsizing of those basic industries – including the utter stupidity of unions and company management – there is also no denying the role played by government regulation in their demise. It is disingenuous of global warming advocates to downplay the consequences of what they are proposing.
There is also no denying the serious strain of anti-capitalist, anti-technology ideology that permeates the non-scientific global warming cheerleading squad of UN bureaucrats, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO’s), Green Party politicians, and ignorant celebrities who agitate for the enactment of global regulations that would put a serious damper on economic growth. For many of these Luddites, global warming is a means to an end. To varying degrees, the belief in the supremacy of the state over the individual and the government’s ability to regulate behavior are at the bottom of their lobbying. In fact, the non-scientific community of global warming enthusiasts believes that our only hope for salvation lies in some kind of super-national governmental entity with the ability to override the will of individual states to make decisions for their own people.
This is where the Kyoto Protocols were heading in the future as the current regime is only the first step. Recognizing this:
[T]he U.S. Senate unanimously passed by a 95–0 vote the Byrd-Hagel Resolution (S. Res. 98)[, which stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol that did not include binding targets and timetables for developing as well as industrialized nations or “would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States”.
It is incorrect to say that Byrd-Hagel was a rejection of the treaty. In fact, Kyoto has never been voted on by the Senate. The reason is contained in that sense of the Senate resolution; India and China are exempt from the requirements of the protocols. There is also an excellent case to be made that Kyoto would result “in serious harm” to our economy.
But it is science that we must turn to in order to discover whether or not the human species is in trouble. And unfortunately, there are not now nor are there likely to be any time soon clear answers on the viability of global warming theories.
In this excellent article that appears in this weekend’s Washington Post Magazine, Joel Achenbach dissects the global warming skeptics community while highlighting the enormous problems that climate modelers have had with predictions:
Let us say a word in praise of uncertainty. It is a concession to an interesting and complicated planet that is full of surprises. The fog of uncertainty surrounding climate change is routinely cited as a reason to wait before making cuts in greenhouse emissions. But if we wait for that fog to break, we’ll wait forever.Isaac Held, the NOAA climate modeler, is the first to admit that the models aren’t perfect. “Clouds are hard,” he says. The models on his computer screen are incomprehensible to the untrained eye. But Held argues that the models are conservative. For global warming to be less of a problem than is currently anticipated, all the uncertainties would have to break, preferentially, toward the benign side of things.
Moreover, we don’t even know all the things that we don’t know. James Hansen, the prominent NASA scientist, points out that the models don’t realistically include ice sheets and the biosphere—all the plants and animals on Earth. The global climate surely has more surprises for us.
Given the enormous costs that lowering emissions would entail, (estimates range from a low of around $125 billion over the course of a decade to a high of $1.2 trillion during the same period), the question of “waiting for the fog to break” becomes relevant despite what Mr. Achenbach says – especially since much of that “fog” is the result of questionable science; at least in the eyes of the skeptics. Meteorologist Bill Gray, perhaps the leading hurricane expert on the planet:
“I’ve been in meteorology over 50 years. I’ve worked damn hard, and I’ve been around. My feeling is some of us older guys who’ve been around have not been asked about this. It’s sort of a baby boomer, yuppie thing.”Gray believes in the obs. The observations. Direct measurements. Numerical models can’t be trusted. Equation pushers with fancy computers aren’t the equals of scientists who fly into hurricanes.
“Few people know what I know. I’ve been in the tropics, I’ve flown in airplanes into storms. I’ve done studies of convection, cloud clusters and how the moist process works. I don’t think anybody in the world understands how the atmosphere functions better than me.”
In just three, five, maybe eight years, he says, the world will begin to cool again.
Gray isn’t alone. The skeptical community includes some of the leading climate scientists in the world:
In the world of the skeptics you’ll come across Richard Lindzen, an MIT climate scientist who has steadfastly maintained for years that clouds and water vapor will counteract the greenhouse emissions of human beings. You’ll find S. Fred Singer, author of Hot Talk, Cold Science, who points to the positive side of the melting Arctic: “We spent 500 years looking for a Northwest Passage, and now we’ve got one.” You’ll quickly run across Pat Michaels, the University of Virginia climatologist and author of Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians and the Media . You might dip into TCSDaily.com, the online clearinghouse for anti-global-warming punditry. You’ll meet the Cooler Heads Coalition and the Greening Earth Society.The skeptics point to the global temperature graph for the past century. Notice how, after rising steadily in the early 20th century, in 1940 the temperature suddenly levels off. No—it goes down! For the next 35 years! If the planet is getting steadily warmer due to Industrial Age greenhouse gases, why did it get cooler when industries began belching out carbon dioxide at full tilt at the start of World War II?
The scientific advocates for climate change respond with a barrage of their own:
Some of the anomalies cited by the skeptics go away over time. Remember that graph showing the world’s temperature leveling off and actually cooling from 1940 to 1975, even as the industrial economies of the planet were going full blast? The mainstream climate scientists think one factor may have been air pollution—aerosols pumped out by smokestacks, dimming sunlight before it reached the surface. In the early 1970s, governments passed air pollution controls, such as the Clean Air Act, that required scrubbers on smokestacks. The skies cleared. And the temperature has been racing upward ever since.What about the Medieval Warm Period? If human industry causes warming, why were the Vikings sailing around the North Atlantic to godforsaken places like Greenland and setting up farming communities 1,000 years ago? Many scientists answer that the Medieval Warm Period wasn’t a global phenomenon. You can’t draw global conclusions from the experience of the North Atlantic.
And it goes on. In the meantime, what are politically aware but scientifically challenged lay people like you and me to do?
It would be great if we had the scientific acumen to dissect the various theories and climate models that purport to prove that a catastrophe is on the way. But most of us don’t. This does not mean, that we should wallow in our ignorance and spout inanities about what Al Gore said or what the latest global warming debunking evidence shows. For myself, and I believe a growing number of people, our agnosticism on global warming is indicative of our suspicion regarding the confluence of science and politics – an incendiary mixture to be sure. Both sides feature advocates who are using the controversy over global warming to advance a political point of view. The danger is obvious; either the politics of global warming will swamp our economies in an unnecessary regulatory briar patch of emission reductions and an infringement on personal liberty or we will sleepwalk our way to disaster.
Is there a way to take the politics out of the global warming debate? Surely, not in any realistic sense. But there has to be a way to lower the volume and keep the debate from descending into personal invective and partisan hackery. Given the stakes, there really isn’t any alternative, is there?
UPDATE: 5/28
Matt Stoller: Certifiable Idiot:
Al Gore is now leading a different conversation, on global warming, and that’s the conversation we’re going to start having. The first salvo is his movie. The second salvo, before we can talk solutions, is to make it very clear that accepting industry spam on global warming is not going to cut it. It’s time to put people on the record. Since Congressional Republicans won’t act, we will. The Roots Project is going to work to have a resolution introduced into Congress that says that global warming is man-made and that the the scientific consensus behind it is real. That’s it. The resolution will call for no actions. The only purpose is to put global warming on the national agenda, to make it a voting issue in 2006.
Stoller, like Gore, is less interested in Global Warming as a process or a problem and more as a political issue to bash Republicans with.
And it’s obvious he didn’t read Achenbach’s article very closely. If he did, he would’ve seen that most of the “industry” (which, he doesn’t bother to identify) is in fact all greened up and on board the Global Warming gravy train. To dismiss the critiques of scientists like Gray and Lindzen who’ve never taken a corporate dollar in their lives as “industry paid liars” is breathtaking ignorance of the issue. But then, Stoller is not interested in the issue except as a political club – which makes him more dangerous than any industry spokesman could possible dream of being.