The spate of good news being enjoyed by the White House this week has been a welcome respite from the gloom and doom of the previous months. And while the death of Zarqawi, the frogless non march of Karl Rove, and Bush’s surprise trip to Baghdad have lifted the funeral pall from the White House, there remain the same problems and issues that have led Republicans to their current perilous state and which must successfully be faced if the Bushies are going to turn GOP fortunes around.

But like an addict on the rebound, the Administration would be best served if they took things one day at a time and not try and get too far ahead of themselves. In other words, it is probably best not to start planning the victory party for November until some major mileposts are passed on several issues.

THE WAR

The death of Zarqawi and, more importantly, the naming of the rest of the Iraqi cabinet has been a catalyst for hope. But the task faced by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki would tax the abilities of a Nebuchadnezzar. The sectarian violence has caused more than 100,000 Iraqis to flee their homes in terror. Kidnappings are rampant. In the south, Shias have begun to carve out an independent enclave where Sharia law rules and militias have joined with police to enforce the will of bodies not answering at the moment to Baghdad. In the north, especially around the oil city of Kirkuk, Kurds and Shia Arabs are jostling for control of that oil rich area with the feuding sometimes erupting into open gunfire.

Then there is the endemic corruption that has engulfed the oil and other ministries as well as a problems with electricity and water, the solving of which would go a long way toward instilling confidence in the government.

All of this does not include the problem with the insurgency and with al-Qaeda in Iraq who, while apparently not cooperating to any great degree, nevertheless pose a very serious threat to public confidence and order.

On the plus side, there’s Maliki himself. The picture that is emerging of the PM is one of a tough pragmatist, a perfect compliment to the religious leader Ayatollah al-Sistani. They seem to be in agreement on several vital issues including trying to keep Iraq as secular as possible under a constitution that recognizes some aspects of Sharia law. Al-Sistani’s reputation is being rehabilitated following a rough patch after the bombing of the Shrine in Samarra where many Shia Iraqis saw his calls for calm and brotherhood a betrayal of sorts. But with both Miliki and al-Sistani on the same wavelength, there’s a very good chance that some very touchy issues regarding the Shia militias (which after all, are at bottom, religious militias) can be resolved fairly quickly.

What won’t happen quickly is an end or even a beginning of the end of the violence. The problems relating to criminal gangs who are more interested in kidnapping and ordinary theft will be the easy part of the security puzzle. Much more problematic will be reining in the militias and their allies in the police (Interior Ministry) who seem to never tire of murdering ordinary Sunnis. This results in revenge killings and the cycle continues. The fact is, the Sunnis will never stop fighting until they can be assured they won’t be murdered in their beds by Shias. And for that to happen, Miliki will have to do some serious bridge building to the Sunni community.

How much can the Americans really do to help? The problems in Iraq have been of a political nature almost since Saddam’s statue fell. All we can do is pretty much what we have been doing; training the police and army to fight crime and the insurgents until enough of them become competent so that we can start drawing down our forces. On the political front, we can help with reconstruction but, as the cabinet crisis proved, there is very little we can do about telling the Iraqis how to manage their affairs.

So with the war, at least, Bush is at the mercy of events and the competence (or lack thereof) of the Iraqi leaders.

IMMIGRATION

If Bush wants an immigration package, he will probably have to give up his amnesty plan, at least in its present form. Speaker Hastert has made it clear that substantial changes will have to be made in conference for the bill to pass muster in the House including the adoption of the House’s much more stringent border security measures.

Bush will give a little on amnesty but not entirely which means that the entire issue will either die a very public death with recriminations being hurled back and forth between the White House and GOP lawmakers or, the amnesty provision will be so watered down as to be meaningless, in which case Bush gets zero credit from the very constituencies he’s trying to please while continuing to anger the GOP base.

Heads they win, tails you lose, Mr. President.

“CORRUPTION”

While this issue is currently a loser for both sides, there’s a real possibility that this could change as Abramoff continues to sing and two other prosecutors are sharpening their knives. Why the Republicans are so inert on the issue of ethics is beyond me. I put it down to poor leadership by Hastert and Frist. Somehow, I can’t imagine Bob Michel and Bob Dole putting up with this tomfoolery.

Are the Republicans and Democrats in Congress so in love with their perks and privileges that it has blinded them to the outrage felt by good citizens of both parties who see the trips, the meals, the boxing matches, and the golf games as little better than outright bribery?

A GOP led ethics reform movement would help. But this is a long term process that also needs to address “earmarks” and other blatant gifts to the powerful that will have to stop before people start trusting anybody in Congress again.

One final thought. At present, the demographics favor the Republicans so much that even with their horrific performance in Congress and the White House, their chances of losing both Houses of Congress are slim. But those numbers could easily change prior to the next census which could spell real trouble for Republicans when districts are redrawn in 2010. The country is restless under Bush and the GOP. Every major indicator that measures how satisfied people are has gone down over the last 5 years. And the siren call for change is getting stronger. If not this year, then certainly the election of 2008 could be seen as a watershed unless Republicans can somehow regroup and re-energize both their base and their wellspring of ideas.

One week of mildly good news will not affect the future substantially. And that’s why for the foreseeable future, Bush and the Republicans are going to have to take things one day at a time.