Senator Rick Santorum is in a race for his political life. This could explain why he is trumpeting a 2 year old report he requested to have declassified that confirms the fact of chemical weapons found in Iraq.
There are several caveats that have to be listed when discussing this report. First, there’s nothing new in it:
The U.S. military announced in 2004 in Iraq that several crates of the old shells had been uncovered and that they contained a blister agent that was no longer active. Neither the military nor the White House nor the CIA considered the shells to be evidence of what was alleged by the Bush administration to be a current Iraqi program to make chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.Last night, intelligence officials reaffirmed that the shells were old and were not the suspected weapons of mass destruction sought in Iraq after the 2003 invasion.
Secondly, I agree with Allah who says simply “WMD is WMD, but finding a shell here and there when Iran’s about to get the bomb next door leaves me somewhat … underwhelmed.”
Third, the WMD argument ended years ago. Despite tantalizing evidence that Saddam moved his stockpiles to Syria and Lebanon prior to our invasion as well as anecdotal evidence of Russian collusion in spiriting WMD out of the country, from the standpoint of making a difference in the minds of the American people, this most recent evidence of Iraqi WMD will hardly be a blip on most people’s radar.
To be sure, the MSM at least gives the appearance that it is taking no chances that this story will change anyone’s mind on the war or on the President. One would think that a Senator reading from a declassified report on the Senate floor that our forces found 500 artillery shells containing deadly chemicals might be considered in some quarters to be news. The New York Times doesn’t even mention it. And even more curiously, the Washington Post buried the story by their national security correspondent Dafna Linzer on Page 10 (I wonder when the last time Linzer had his byline buried that deep in the paper?). And just to feed my conspiratorial nature even further, WaPo no longer links to the story in their on-line edition. I had to retrieve it by going through my “history” this morning.
But even if this was front page news, the political impact would be negligible. The politics of the war have moved beyond WMD and the liberation of Iraq and now center on the ongoing occupation and insurgency. We could find hundreds perhaps even thousands more of these pre-Gulf War chemical munitions and there still would be no impact on the President’s popularity or Republican chances in November. The fact is, the narrative of the war has been appropriated by the President’s political enemies. “Bush lied, people died” still resonates with a sizable portion of the electorate, judging by the numbers we see about support for the war as well as the fact that a majority of Americans see the war as a mistake and not worth the cost. And for that to change, the political and security situations in Iraq will have to improve dramatically. Or, underground bunkers filled with WMD created after the Gulf War would have to be discovered in Iraq or elsewhere.
This is the unfortunate dynamic at work when the politics of the war is assessed by voters. I am heartened to see Republicans standing behind our troops and the President this week as they beat back attempts by the Democrats to cut and run. I think it reflects good instincts about where the American people stand on the war. Even if they think it may have been a mistake to invade in the first place, I think that voters still believe that there is no substitute for victory and that the Democrat’s plan smacks of defeatism. I also think that the debate this week in Congress shows that the tipping point is far from being reached and that Democrats who seek to make their critique of the war an issue in November do so at their own peril.
This may change over the summer and into the fall if the Iraqi government fails to get its act together and the carnage continues. But at the moment, the Democrats, it seems to me, may have miscalculated. It should be interesting to see how many of them support Kerry’s resolution on withdrawal in the Senate. If Reid can’t get half his caucus to support the measure, it would indicate to me that the Democrats also see their harsh critique of the war as a loser of an issue and will back off unless the situation on the ground changes for the worse.
From an historical standpoint, the issue of WMD may be important. But politically, it’s a non-starter. What the American people want is not confirmation of the justification for going into Iraq but rather progress by the Iraqi government that would help get us out.
That spells victory both for our troops and for Republicans in November.
UPDATE
Michelle Malkin links to Powerline who received an interesting email from NRO’s Michael Ledeen:
Please point out to your readers that Negroponte only declassified a few fragments of a much bigger document. Read the press conference and you will see that Santorum and Hoekstra were furious at the meager declassification. They will push for more, and we all must do that. I am told that there is a lot more in the full document, which CIA is desperate to protect, since it shows the miserable job they did looking for WMDs in Iraq.
The CIA may not be very good at intelligence work. But when it comes to protecting their behinds in turf wars, there appears to be no agency better at putting their own narrow interests ahead of the national good.
8:16 am
Rick: very good analysis, and unfortunately, I think spot on. For anyone who’s followed this war from the beginning, this is in fact, not new “news”; if I remember correctly, there was even an IED that was construted using several of these old mustard/sarin shells, and there was some low-level exposure to the troops who were bombed.
The real story, is the fact that the Dilfer report and the ISG incorrectly catagorized many hidden caches of cyclosarins and other chemicals found BURIED across Iraq by US troops as “pesticides” and immediately dismissed them as WMD’s, thus drastically undercutting the Bush Adminstration, and the reason we went to war to begin.
But bottomline, your take is very reasoned and logical.
8:28 am
Rick: Hi, sorry, am typing quickly; that’s “constructed”, and “Deulfer”.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1110254/posts
The link above, had an exceedingly important story on WMD’s in Iraq, that of course has been ignored for over 2 years by the Jacobin MSM!
R/dale
9:47 am
I’m glad to see we’re on the same page on this, Rick. I posted in a similar vein this morning.
9:48 am
Good post, Rick. I did a smidge on my blog, too, tho not as well said as yours. And, yes, finally the Republicans in the Senate are standing up and outdoing the Dems by demanding votes. It’s heartening to see them actually acting as though they are in charge.
11:49 am
I would have thought all smart pr-war writers would be avoiding this story like the plague …it just makes them look silly.
Blister agent even if it was active is NOT WMD it is an unconventional weapon
Pet peeve:
There is a difference between unconventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction. Most chemical weapons are unconventional in that they are not common, but most are a lot less deadly than many “conventional” weapons. the blister agents in this story were never going to cause “Mass Destruction”
For example, the US daisy cutter bomb is conventional but is so powerful it causes a mushroom cloud. Net, it is a WMD.
OK, that’s my nitpick for the day
12:18 pm
For any war supporter to use this story as ‘evidence’ of any kind just shows their desperation. The first sentence of this blog explains why Santorum is trotting out this stuff now.
12:30 pm
Steve:
The issue has to be addressed because of the fact that some ARE making a big deal of it. It is an irrelevancy.
Are you saying that mustard gas is not WMD? That would be news to the UN and the US - both of whom recognize mustard gas as WMD.
Greg:
Read the fricking post before you respond – at least more than the first sentence. I wrote an analysis of the political impact of such stories whic his nil.
If you had bothered to read it, you would have discovered that.
12:46 pm
[...] The full monty: what else can Rick Santorum find? Has anyone else let it all hang out to reveal so little? The search for clues, sundry and otherwise continues. Who is stuck on stupid? What should Ranger Rick look for next? Fun times. Meanwhile the race continues for Santorum, which may be why all this old talk of The Holy Grail is in the news in the first place. [...]
1:07 pm
Ah Steve Said, I love it when so called “experts” way in, especially with expertise they do not possess!
And your pet peeves are usless, especially since they’re so wrong!
As a former Marine Intel Officer, I supposed I’ll have to hear all the old “oxymoron” stuff later on, but I do know a little about Iraq, WMD’s, etc.; having spent six weeks there, the first time around.
Pet Peeve #1: A “Dasiy Cutter” is NOT a WMD, whether it causes a “mushroom cloud” or not
Pet Peeve #2: Blister Agents ARE Mustard Agents! NO Difference, and the ARE WMD’s!
Here’s a little education for you: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blister_agent
And, the artcle that Santorum and them quoted, discussed Sarin (definitely a WMD) and Mustard Agents (also known as Blister Agents or Vesicants!), and they ARE WMD’s!
So before you start pontificationg pet peeves from a position of ignorance, do a little reseach, and education yourself!
1:09 pm
PS: when I pissed off, I can’t type straight, and leftists, who know crapola about anything, when they start posting as if they do, it really pisses me off…
2:24 pm
Media blackout on WMD story?
Shhhhh.
...
3:35 pm
The Middle Finger Salute To The “Bush Lied People Died” Hysterics
It was important to re-establish credibility, and the President has played the diplomacy card like a true master. It is now time to squash the critics and prove beyond reasonable doubt that U.S. intelligence was indeed correct. Rick Moran quite rightly…
6:32 pm
[...] Rightwing Nuthouse also sees a media conspiracy, as does Patterico’s Pontifications. [...]
6:35 pm
[...] Rightwing Nuthouse also sees a media conspiracy, as does Patterico’s Pontifications. [...]
12:49 am
So lets try to follow the great Rick Moran logic.
There were no WMD, other than old, rusty remnants from before GF1. Hmmm, thats a problem. So lets see how we can spin this.
1. Santorum is trying to grab a few headlines in a desparate attempt to refloat his career. Good Rick. Great start. Is this your little gesture to reality to try an gin up some cred for the rest of the spin?
2. There is nothing new here. Excellent. I might have been wrong about Rick. Two points in a row that hew to reality.
3. But then, uh oh. Here we go. Suddenly we have to start an attack on the MSM for burying this story! This story which (I thought) we had just established is not news and is the hype of a desparate pol. But no! The evil MSM is hiding this! Why? Out of fear that maybe some people will be “convinced” of something! Convinced of what Rick? Convinced that there is nothing new here and that it is a ploy by a desparate pol?
4. AH, but its not just the evil MSM. Its the incredibly stupid American people too! Ya see, even if the MSM ran this story on the front page (Santorum’s version, not Rick’s insightful analysis of it), it would not make any difference. Because the stupid American people are so brainwashed that they would be incapable of changing their opinion. Is that it Rick?
Or is it that, even if it were on the front pages, the American people might see through it as easily as you did. In which case, I wonder why the MSM didnt run with it. Geez, its all so confusing.
Finally we finish with the coup de merde trifecta of loonies – Ledeen by way of Powerline by way of Malkin (geez Rick…). And the message? Its all a conshpiracy ya see – the CIA is hiding all the WMD (at least the ones on paper) and (I presume) thwarting the righteous ones in the WH who might just have an interest in publicizing the existence of all these WMD, because the poor ol CIA is embarrassed you see…
And good ol’ Rick just laps it up – yeah – that evil CIA, no interest in the protecting America, just their own narrow interests. From Ledeen, of all people!
This site is nothing if not entertaining. Unfortunatly, nothing more.
5:08 am
In 2004, the UN’s nucelear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), learned that the US had shipped 1.8 tons of low enriched uranium from Tuwaitha in Iraq for disposition. The IAEA’s reaction to the shipment of nuclear material out of Saddam’s nuclear research center at Al-Tuwaitha is a perfect example of how they routinely delay and obfuscate the efforts of the US and the UK in controlling banned substances and delivery systems.
Very little has been reported about the volume of material which was found at al-Tuwaitha back in 2004.
Douglas Hanson, the Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Science and Technology for the Coalition Provisional Authority during the Summer of 2003, wrote about this at Frontpage Magazine and also at The American Thinker.
Yellowcake is uranium ore that has been milled to produce a pure form of the substance known as Uranium Oxide. Further processes, such as conversion and enrichment, are required to make the yellowcake suitable for use as nuclear fuel in a reactor or for use in a nuclear weapon. Interestingly, a quantity of depleted uranium was also found at Tuwaitha. This implies that some enrichment processes occurred on-site, as depleted uranium is the natural byproduct of the enrichment process.
In addition to the yellowcake, approximately 300 tons of radioisotopes for industrial and medical uses were stored at primarily Site B. These materials, numbering over 1000 radioactive items retrieved from the site, included Cesium-137 and Cobalt-60. Both are extremely radioactive substances that are ideal for use in Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDD), or “dirty bombs.â€
Not only this material, but an inordinate amount of pesticides in barrels have been discovered, only to be brushed aside as ‘not relevant’.
Saddam had rebuilt segments of his industrial chemical infrastructure in Baghdad under the “guise of a civilian need for pesticides, chlorine, and other legitimate chemical products.†But the point that people seem to miss is that pesticides are the key elements in the chemical agent arena. In fact, the general pesticide chemical formula (organophosphate) is the “grandfather†of modern day nerve agents. Pesticides are also precursors of many other chemical weapons including Mustard-Lewisite (HL), Phosgene (CG) a choking agent, and Hydrogen Cyanide (AC) a blood agent.
It was not surprising then, as Coalition forces attacked into Iraq, that huge warehouses and caches of “commercial and agricultural†chemicals were seized and painstakingly tested by Army and Marine chemical specialists. What was surprising was how quickly the ISG refuted the findings of our ground forces, and how silent they have been on the significance of these caches.
A camouflaged bunker complex full 55-gallon drums of pesticide was entered with some strange and unpleasant results.
But later ISG tests resulted in a proclamation of negative, end of story, nothing to see here, etc., and the earlier findings and injuries dissolved into non-existence. Left unexplained is the small matter of the obvious pains taken to disguise the cache of ostensibly legitimate pesticides. One wonders about the advantage an agricultural commodities business gains by securing drums of pesticide in camouflaged bunkers six feet underground. The “agricultural site†was also co-located with a military ammunition dump, evidently nothing more than a coincidence in the eyes of the ISG.
I’m sorry, but there’s a lot of bureaucratic mumbo jumbo here that needs to be sifted through and taken with a block of salt when visiting the ‘no wmd’ issue. The reports and interests of the agencies involved seem to be evidence of CYA and as Rick points out, their narrow interests, rather than exposing the truth.
7:37 am
Tano: I’m just trying to understand something about you from your posts:
were you just born stupid, or did you study real hard and practice alot?
Dale in Atlanta
11:15 am
I’m glad right-wingers and left-wingers and wingless wingers alike all think the government should be more open. I’m glad Santorum is trying to get Negroponte to get his filthy hands off the People’s WMD documents. I’m glad the ACLU is demanding that the DoD cough up the Haditha records. I’m glad the “conspiracy nuts” are doing their damndest to pry those 84 Flight 11 videos out of the FBI. I think we can all agree on one thing: the government hides as much as it can from We the People. Isn’t that obvious by now?
I’m glad right-wingers and left-wingers alike are dissatisfied with the mainstream media. It’s mostly garbage entertainment. It’s faux news. It’s not a coordinated conspiracy, but rather a natural tendency towards complete and total ignorance. Because ignorance is bliss. And bliss sells. We can all agree on this.
Right-and-left is a false dichotomy. What we have is a secretive government, over which we have no control, that is growing bigger and bigger, stealing our tax dollars and giving them away (pick your scapegoat: welfare recipients or corporations, it doesn’t matter), concentrating more and more power into a smaller and smaller group of people, and effectively euthenizing the watch dogs in the Fourth Estate.
Take THAT.
11:54 am
[...] Moran, god bless ‘im, considers another theory: To be sure, the MSM at least gives the appearance that it is taking no chances that this story will change anyone’s mind on the war or on the President. One would think that a Senator reading from a declassified report on the Senate floor that our forces found 500 artillery shells containing deadly chemicals might be considered in some quarters to be news. The New York Times doesn’t even mention it. And even more curiously, the Washington Post buried the story by their national security correspondent Dafna Linzer on Page 10 (I wonder when the last time Linzer had his byline buried that deep in the paper?). [...]
11:22 pm
WMD in Iraq – No Kidding
Yes, the major media is reacting with a great big yawn to the story of the recently declassified document proving that over 500 chemical weapons shells have been found in Iraq since 2003, and that “blackout” is covered nicely here…