On the surface, it looks like an important breakthrough in the diplomatic dance going on to stop the war between the Israelis and Hizbullah. The terrorists have apparently agreed to disarm and allow an international force into southern Lebanon:

Hezbollah politicians, while expressing reservations, have joined their critics in the government in agreeing to a peace package that includes strengthening an international force in south Lebanon and disarming the guerrillas, the government said.

The agreement — reached after a heated six-hour Cabinet meeting — was the first time that Hezbollah has signed onto a proposal for ending the crisis that includes the deploying of international forces.

Ah yes! Those all important “reservations.”

Hezbollah signed on to the joint proposal “in principle” on the understanding that more discussions will be held between it and other political factions after the U.N. Security Council decides on the composition and mandate of an international force on the border, according to Hezbollah and government officials. The radical Shiite Muslim movement would maintain its heavily armed militia in the south during the talks.

[snip]

After a prisoner exchange, “we will discuss between us Lebanese how to proceed toward a reinforced international presence along the border,” Hamadeh said. He acknowledged that disarming Hezbollah would have to be part of the discussion, saying: “We would discuss that as part of the system of national defense, but between us Lebanese.”

The proposal also demands a Security Council commitment to place the disputed Shebaa Farms area under U.N. supervision until Syria, Israel and Lebanon can work out a settlement on whose territory it should be. Ghaleb Abu-Zeinab of Hezbollah’s political bureau said this was key because the tiny pocket of orchards—where the Israeli and Lebanese borders meet the occupied Golan Heights—is the militia’s only territorial dispute with Israel.

With that issue settled, he suggested, Hezbollah could consider some form of disarmament and cooperation with the Lebanese army and international peacekeepers.

To sum up, Hizbullah will “discuss” the issue of disarming if:

1. Israel agrees to an immediate cease fire.

2. Israel agrees to a prisoner exchange involving terrorists who have murdered Israeli citizens including cold blooded killer Samir Qantar.

3, The UN internationalizes the Shebaa Farms and then hands the disputed territory to Lebanon.

4. The Lebanese government discusses “reinforcing the international presence” (UNIFIL) in the south while allowing Hizbullah back into positions they have abandoned during the war.

5. Pigs can fly.

Watch now as diplomats the world over praise Hizbullah’s “flexibility” when in reality, the terrorists want to return to a status quo ante-bellum; everything exactly as it was before the war with the bonus of the disputed Shebaa Farms falling into Hizbullah’s hands like a ripe plum. They will still have their guns going into “negotiations” with the Lebanese government to disarm – presumably the same negotiations that have been going on for more than a year. The big difference being that Nasty Nasrallah and his thugs will have garnered enormous prestige as a result of their standing toe to toe with Israel on the battlefield and besting them at the conference table.

Also, recall that Hizbullah has yet to abide by UN Resolution 1559 which called for their forces to pull back from the southern border as well as disarming. Why in God’s name should anyone with half a brain trust these brutes to abide by any agreement put into place following their latest aggression against Israel?

I disagree with Ed Morrissey’s take on this:

First, Hassan Nasrallah has retreated to the shelter of his patrons, first in Damascus and then rumored to be hiding in the Iranian embassy. Second, his admission of setbacks to his troops indicate that he was already in some serious trouble with his fellow terrorists. This new offer makes it appear that a leadership change has occurred in Hezbollah—and Nasrallah may wind up fleeing Lebanon altogether.

I don’t think that Nasrallah’s popularity depends very much on any gains or losses by the military wing of Hizbullah. The fact that they have stood up in open combat with the Israelis is, pathetically speaking, enough to make him a hero on the Arab street and raise his prestige even further amongst the Lebanese Shia population. And the Lebanese government, caught between an ascendant Hizbullah and the punishing attacks by the Israelis, have pretty much been forced to give Nasrallah a veto over any peace proposals anyway.

As Ed rightly points out, it is unlikely that the Israelis will accept the cease fire proposal anyway which means that Nasrallah has lost nothing domestically and gained enormously on the international stage as he will now be touted as something of a statesman. And in the end, unless something unforeseen occurs, Hizbullah will still have its guns, still be the most organized and effective fighting force in Lebanon, and still hold the upper hand over the government in any peace negotiations with Israel or the international community.