A scientific survey done by the Beirut Center for Research and Information is something of an eye opener. The survey was conducted by Lebanese statistician Abdo Saad between July 24 and July 26 according to confessional and regional distribution, including the opinion of refugees. 800 adults were queried on a variety of topics including the performance of the government during the crisis as well as attitudes toward Hizbullah’s actions that started the war and how the terrorist group is viewed in general by the population:

The answers to the first question showed a relatively high level of support for Hizbullah’s capture of two Israeli soldiers, contrasting the positions of some local political forces’ condemnation of the operation. Such support was based on a belief that Israel and the US intended to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1559 by force, regardless of whether Hizbullah carried out the July 12 raid.

Moreover, the results show the majority of Lebanese believe the only way to liberate Lebanese detainees in Israeli prisons is through the capture of Israeli soldiers and a prisoner swap, as was the case in 2000.

The survey showed near-identical numbers as an earlier survey, published by As-Safir on March 2. That survey showed 70.9 percent support for Hizbullah operations to capture Israeli soldiers.

This despite the heavy consequences being paid by Lebanese civilians for the Hizbullah incursion into Israel. Support for the kidnapping of the Israelis has even increased since March in the Christian community, thanks in part to Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun’s Memorandum of Understanding with Hizbullah agreed to last February that supported Hizbullah efforts to get Lebanese nationals released from Israeli prisons.

Support in the Druze community has fallen slightly from 49% in March to 40% now. This could reflect Druze leader Walid Jumblatt’s uncompromising condemnation of Hizbullah’s actions on July 12 and their incursion into Israel.

There is also strong support for Hizbullah’s terror tactics:

The survey showed 87 percent support for Hizbullah’s retaliatory attacks on northern Israel. Such a high level of support must be attributed to Hizbullah’s political and military performance, in addition to a national consensus identifying Israel as Lebanon’s main enemy.

The survey suggests that Hizbullah’s military performance has bolstered confidence in the resistance’s abilities as 63 percent of respondents expected a Hizbullah victory over Israel.

Hizbullah, an extremely media savvy terrorist group, will likely find a willing audience for the post war spinning of their lopsided military defeat into some kind of glorious victory.

Support for the US as an “honest broker” has dropped considerably:

The survey showed that a large majority of Lebanese do not consider the US to be an honest mediator (89.5 percent). A similar survey conducted by the Beirut Center for Research and Information published in As-Safir on January 31 showed 38.2 percent support for the US role in Lebanon. This drop is due to the close political cooperation between the US and Israel.

I imagine most Lebanese are extremely upset that the United States refuses to call upon Israel to stop bombing them. If I were in their position, I’d probably feel the same way.

Finally, there is mixed news for the government of Prime Minister Siniora:

Meanwhile, the majority of respondents were unsatisfied with their government’s performance on the diplomatic level (64.3 percent) and relief efforts (54 percent).

However, the rates varied according to sect, as 82.1 percent of Shiites polled and 64.8 percent of Sunnis polled said they were dissatisfied with the government, while 50.1 percent of Druze polled and 61.9 percent of Christians polled said the government had done a good job with humanitarian relief.

One might note that the bombing has fallen heaviest on the Shias and economically damaged the middle class Sunnis the most while the Druze (who are concentrated outside of Beirut) and the Christians (whose enclaves have barely been touched by the war) demonstrate support for the government.

Clearly, the people want Siniora to press Lebanon’s case more forcefully in the international arena and do a better job in dealing with the massive humanitarian crisis (more than 700,000 displaced people) that threatens to overwhelm Siniora’s shaky government.

What is most troubling is the apparent identification of Hizbullah as a force defending Lebanon. This is a change from before the war when most Druze and Christians saw Hizbullah as a danger to the Lebanese state. This attitude can only be bad news for Prime Minister Sinora (and the US and Israel) who will be facing a popular political figure in Nasrallah after the war who has been emboldened by public support for his militia.

It’s going to make disarming the terrorists that much harder.