The French are if nothing else, a consistent bunch. Faced with the choice of standing by the Israelis who are after all, representing the West in this war with Islamists or groveling before the Sheiks of Araby, the French have chosen to diplomatically betray the US and Israel by abandoning the formulation of a “cessation of hostilities” with the IDF remaining in place until an international force was deployed to a position advocated by the Arabs:
The French-American alliance at the United Nations over a Mideast cease-fire agreement is crumbling, sources tell FOX News.The French U.N. delegation has joined with Arab nations and is now calling for a complete and immediate Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as a condition of any cease-fire, the sources said.
In addition, the French have reportedly agreed with Arab demands that the Lebanese force be accompanied only by UNIFIL, with no international force to be deployed.
This is a total and complete surrender to the Arab/Hizbullah position on the resolution. In fact, Hizbullah has stated from the beginning that there will be no cease fire until the Israelis leave Lebanese soil.
Very well, says Prime Minister Olmert. Be careful what you wish for:
Israel’s Security Cabinet on Wednesday approved a wider ground offensive in south Lebanon that was expected to take 30 days as part of a new push to badly damage Hezbollah, Israeli Cabinet minister Eli Yishai said.The decision was made with nine ministers in favor and three abstaining. The Security Cabinet authorized troops to push to the Litani River some 18 miles from the Israel-Lebanon border. Currently, some 10,000 soldiers are fighting Hezbollah in a four-mile-deep stretch from the Israel-Lebanon border.
Yishai said the proposed operation was expected to take 30 days. However, an internationally backed cease-fire was expected to be imposed well before then.
“The assessment is it will last 30 days. I think it is wrong to make this assessment. I think it will take a lot longer,” he said.
It seems clear that no cease fire resolution will be voted on this week. In fact, I daresay that as long as the French and the rest of the Security Council are insisting that Israel leave Lebanon and that no international force be deployed, any cease fire passed by the Council would not be honored by the Israelis. (It is likely we’d veto any such resolution anyway).
Deploying the Lebanese Army is not enough for either the US or Israel. The fact that their loyalty to the government of Prime Minister Siniora is an open question is one thing. More importantly, they are ill trained, ill equipped, barely better than an armed mob. They could not hope to stand up to Hizbullah if the terrorists sought to reclaim positions in southern Lebanon abandoned as a result of the IDF offensive.
I find it extremely significant that the cabinet believes this operation to the Litani River and beyond will take at least 30 days. One must assume that Olmert would not have even considered combat operations lasting that long without at least getting the US Administration’s opinion on it.
And my guess would be that he’s no longer dealing with Condi but rather the President himself:
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has become increasingly dismayed over President Bush’s support for Israel to continue its war with Hezbollah.State Department sources said Ms. Rice has been repeatedly stymied in her attempts to pressure Israel to end strikes against Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon. The sources said the secretary’s trip to the Middle East last week was torpedoed by the Israeli air strike of a Lebanese village in which 25 people were killed.
“I’ve never seen her so angry,” an aide said.
The disagreement between Mr. Bush and Ms. Rice is over the ramifications of U.S. support for Israel’s continued offensive against Lebanon. The sources said Mr. Bush believes that Israel’s failure to defeat Hezbollah would encourage Iranian adventurism in neighboring Iraq. Ms. Rice has argued that the United States would be isolated both in the Middle East and Europe at a time when the administration seeks to build a consensus against Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
In the past, Secretary’s rarely allow this kind of dirty laundry in public. And when it is aired, it is usually done with their blessing. Condi may have been shunted aside in this crisis and the Cheney faction is once again ascendant in foreign policy.
While this will lead to more dreary charges by the left that Cheney runs the government, I think that this is a case where Bush may have already decided that in order to bring the Iranians down a peg or two, Hizbullah must be defanged. And if the UN isn’t going to do it, perhaps Israel is the only bunch that can.
We haven’t heard what Bolton thinks about this yet because the resolution is still being considered by all sides. But I’ll bet he’s steaming at the French for their blatant about face in order to curry favor with the Arabs. So be it. If France wants to end up on the losing side of history once again, let her continue with her fantasies that as a player on the world stage, she actually matters.
Bush better be prepared for some truly nasty invective tossed his way over the next 30 days. I admire his stubbornness in this regard but Condi may have a point of sorts. Will there be anyone standing with us by the time a cease fire is in place?
Only the Anglo-American alliance of Britain, the Aussies, and us. It can get very lonely when you’re the only one in the world who thinks you are doing the right thing.
10:43 am
But it’s lonlier to live with yourself if you know you’ve sold out.
11:50 am
[...] There are quite a few in the press and in Washington D.C. that agree with Moore’s sentiments. As an aside there are a few examples, here and here, and it gets worse here. [...]
12:31 pm
Bush is in the right here. This is one big war that will last decades, and Israel is our strongest and most dependable ally. If we lose against Hezbollah, then Iran, Syria, North Korea, and the “Arab street” will only take it as a sign of weakness and be encouraged to flout us more openly. The only way to deal with a bully in the schoolyard is to beat him down mercilessly, thereby showing his weaker supporters the fate that awaits them if they continue in their ways. At the end of the day, its the U.S., Israel, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, and perhaps Canada, the Poles and few others against the evil-doers. We may as well get on with it. I would rather fight them now than wait until they have nukes. It’s a no-brainer, except to the blame-America first idiots on the left.
12:35 pm
If you think they’ll have the Litani in 30 days (with the ability to deploy a peacekeeping/making force), I have some nice condos on the moon I’d like to sell to you.
But, you are right about the French.
12:44 pm
Of all the players, Condoleeza Rice is the one who looks the worst – with her ludicrous predictions of near-term resolutions of the situation. She may have been falling on her sword for the Administration, stalling for time, or she may have been hung out to dry by the President or others. Or maybe she’s been promised an opportunity to fight for a Nobel Prize sometime down the line when the correlation of forces makes a real resolution of the local conflict both desirable and achievable. Again, it’s hard to say. In the short term, however, her credibility certainly appears to have been harmed.
Otherwise, as usually is the case, one can never tell exactly what portion of public discussion is intentional dissembling, what portion is honest, and what portion is the product of miscalculation. Sometimes the participants themselves aren’t sure.
The only thing that’s been clear all along is that the approach emanating from the UN was unlikely and impractical – presented as offering near-term resolution of the conflict when never actually offering anything remotely like it.
As for now, as previously, everyone gets to posture, using diplomacy and diplomatic breakdowns as a cover, while the war continues. The French get to side with the Arabs in this seemingly incoherent, and typically incoherent, position supposedly in favor of “peace,” but under terms that make it impossible. Otherwise, how in real terms does the French position harm US or Israeli interests – except perhaps indirectly by slightly improving the French image while applying a little more charcoal to the already black image of the US and Israel among anti-Israel constituencies? How does the Arab League position hurt, if the real US-Israeli objective is to break Hezbollah and push back on Syria and Iran?
The French get to stand publically with the Arabs, while adopting a position whose practical effect is to hold the door open for the Israeli offensive. The US gets to pose as honest brokers whose efforts to find a fair resolution have been frustrated. The Arab leaders get to pose as defenders of Lebanese interests as currently interpreted by the street, but while effectively supporting a continuation of the war. Israel gets to pose as willing to accept UN diplomacy until frustrated by Arab maximalism. Lebanon gets to continue to play victim, upping the bill a few billion dollars every other day for post-war reconstruction. (Expect prospective donors to agree to some $10s of billions at one or another resort area meeting place – with some small fraction actually forthcoming, mainly from the US and EU.)
If we can take anything we see on our TV screens with more than a grain of salt, then supporters of Israel’s objectives in this conflict should rejoice: After what appear to have been several false starts – but which may turn out to be explicable in other terms – the Israelis now have an opportunity to get it right.
12:51 pm
Maybe it’s a feint, but if it isn’t, it isn’t that new:Colin Powell did it every day.(And apparently Wilkerson and Armitage as well.)
Do you suppose there’s a big “suck your brains out” machine located in the offices of the Secretary of State?
I am tols that as head of the NSC it is she who overruled DoD plans to have Garner turn over civil Administration of Iraq quickly to the Iraqis in favor of the Bremer pro consulate which was the biggest disaster of the post-war period in Iraq.
Maybe the President, despite his affection for Rice, sees it that way, too.
12:52 pm
I just read that Israel shook up its military command structure in Lebanon so as to make it more aggressive. This, combined with the Cabinet decision to launch a wider ground offensive, potentially indicates that they are FINALLY taking the gloves off. It’s about freakin’ time. Up to this point, the Israeli prime minister has been less that Churchillian. I would love to see Netenyahu in charge of this. He wouldn’t be messing around.
12:56 pm
To date, the Israelis have committed a limited ground force for a limited incursion into Lebanon. Only about the equivilent of one division (8-10,000 troops) have been deployed into the area within 3-4 miles of the border.
If the Israelis are serious with their security cabinet approving essentially an escallation of the war, expect more divisions to be sent into the battle – as many as 4 divisions total. This would be 40-50,000 troops complete with full mechanized (Tanks/Armoured Personnel Carrier) support.
With that in mind, achieving the Litani River within 30 days is doable. But to do so, the Israelis have to take the gloves off and push hard against the Hizbullah forces.
Note: And yes, believe it or not, the gloves have been on. The Israelis have so far shown much more restraint than I would have expected.
1:08 pm
Breaking news on Foxnews.com, apparently Hezbollah is calling for the deployment of Lebanese regulars to the border:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,207606,00.html
I think Hezbollah is starting to realize that Israel is about to get serious.
1:16 pm
“Note: And yes, believe it or not, the gloves have been on.”
Can there be any doubt? Not only have the gloves been on – there’ve been gloves around the gloves. And even after the promised escalation, there would still be several layers to go.
1:22 pm
I think we’re being a little too hard on the IDF.
While I agree somewhat with your assessment – I don’t think they’ve applied maximium force yet – the problem is that th Hiz are very dug in; caves, hillsides with tunnels connecting fire positions.
It is very sophisticated designed to inflict the max number of IDF casualties before the fanatic is killed. And they appear to be using anti tank weapons like mortars – firing into buildings and IDF strongpoints.
What’s needed is what John is talking about – max use of force to simply overwhelm them. And with 15,000 fresh troops sitting on the border waiting for the signal to step off, I think the IDF is about to get very serious.
1:24 pm
Check that:
J-Post says the number of IDF troops on the border is – 40,000!!
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525840554&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull
Now that’s what I call serious…
1:43 pm
Frankly, I think Bolton finessed the French. We wanted to give Israel more time and so agreed with the French knowing they’d weasel out. Now that they have there is no plausible alternative to top the war.
Add to this the Hezbollah’s propaganda repllay at Qana is not working and its handmaidens in the media are being exposed by the minute.
BTW the UN is certainly suffering its final blows in this—I’d work night and day for the first candidate with the wit to say it’s time to cease membership in this idiot , corrupt operation. It must be replaced by a handful of militarily able, financially sound, democratic nations.
1:47 pm
Clarice:
You may be right about Bolton except that the formulation he had with France on board would have meant another two weeks at least anyway for Israel. And I don’t think Olmert would have approved this latest escalation without an assurance from Bush that he would have his 30 days.
Olmert would have settled for an international force in place before leaving. Now he’s going to expand the bueffer zone by himself rather than simply having the UN mandate it.
2:44 pm
All good and cogent points so far, but ya’ll are leaving a couple things out. A very smart fellow on another website pointed out to me that the Israelis are doing a 24/7 style campaign of noise and interference on the Hezzies, i.e., they’re working on adreneline and very little to NO sleep. That stuff wears a body down. Anybody.
So I think things won’t take as long from here on out….the Hezzies are TIRED. Literally. Physically. As in no food, no water and no damn sleep.
2:51 pm
Or maybe the French just want to look “finessed.”
I still think that you had to squint way too hard to see anything plausible in the US-French draft. Even on acceptance it would likely have meant weeks of additional wrangling, and months to full implementation. I suppose if “Lebiranollah” had accepted its terms in full, you could just barely imagine a political-military process eventually achieving the same thing slowly that Israel is attempting to get to fast, but it still looks like smoke (pipe dream or screen) to me.
As for the UN, we can take it down whenever we like, but you can’t un-ring that bell, and we may some day find a greater use for it, or anyway wish we had it. Frankly, I think it serves our current purposes well enough as is, though reform and even some sense of shame wouldn’t hurt. The main alternatives – of a very strong, functional organization or of no organization at all – would either impinge on US sovereignty and freedom of movement too much, or too clearly imply the unraveling of the entire post WWII security system, something which has served us very well.
2:56 pm
You’re right about the US-French resolution although they probably could have stopped the fighting in a couple of weeks by dispatching some kind of force to the buffer zone. They wouldn’t need the entire 10-15,000 man unit. As long as Israel retained to right to go back in and keep the Hiz from reoccupying positions they had left, I think both sides would have gone for it.
And don’t look for an acceptance by us or the Israelis of the Lebanese army moving in there. As I say in the article, they are totally unprepared for anything like this. And it still doesn’t solve the problem of disarming the Hiz.
3:57 pm
Ah, the french, not good for anything put perfume and pastries.
Jockitch Charaq, what a loser, as you can tell I am not very fond of the french.
4:22 pm
I believe the saying goes: “It’s lonely at the top.”...but someone has to be there. It might as well be U.S.
Semper Fi…Mac
8:45 pm
This is my theory, amateur as it is.
I think Israel is used to being stopped withing 10-14 days anytime they get serious about a military response by the US President in power at the time. Basically it’s freak out time for everyone at the UN and the State Dept. to get a ceasefire imposed on Israel post haste. What if Israel did not realize that Bush would give them the time they needed to really wipe out Hezz. with a ground invasion? They would mostly do what they did at the beginning, rely on heavy air power and send quick commando raids. I think Israel finally realized that this US President wants Hezz. wiped out, and thinks Israel should just do it, let the cards fall where they may. So what if America is isolated by the EU and the Arab League in public? Privately they will all toe the US line, because they need the US more than ever with Iran being run by a nuke hungry fanatic.
My two cents, take it for what it is worth.
5:12 am
Let’s see, another world crisis involving the forces of freedom and democracy versus the cadres of fanaticism, oppression and hypocrisy, and another French betrayal. Let’s check my watch….yup right on schedule.
2:15 pm
Oh, really, this obsession with ‘the French’ is ridiculous, and Bolton really couldnt finess a dead hamster.
Betrayal? They offered help in police training and reconstruction after the iraq invasion. They were told to bugger off. French special forces are in Afganistan, taking casualties like everyone. A major center for Counterterrorism, set up with the UK and the US, is situated in France.
If for once, the US government listened to the countries that actually understand whats going on in the Middle East, it wouldnt be in the sorry state it is today.
Blaming the French goverment of the general mess today seems to be a handy scapegoat for US goverment incompetence.
Blaming the French for general geopolitics is ridiculous, as blaming an American for the state of the world.