ESTIMATED CROWD OF 500,000 TURN OUT IN BOMBED OUT SOUTHERN BEIRUT FOR HIZBULLAH “VICTORY” RALLY

Sheik Hassan Nasrallah came out of hiding for the first time since the start of his unprovoked aggression against Israel on July 12 to declare victory to about 500,000 of his followers. The “Victory Rally” took place amidst the worst of Nasrallah’s handiwork; the bombed out buildings and shops in devastated southern Beirut.

The surroundings didn’t seem to dim the enthusiasm of his supporters:

Speaking to a sea of followers at a “divine victory” rally in south Beirut, Nasrallah said the Shi’ite Muslim group had emerged stronger from the conflict and also called for a new government in Lebanon.

“The resistance today, pay attention…has more than 20,000 rockets,” he told hundreds of thousands of cheering supporters in his first public appearance since the war broke out in July.

“(It) has recovered all its organizational and military capabilities…it is stronger than it was before July 12,” Nasrallah told the crowd in the Shi’ite Muslim suburbs which were heavily bombed in the 34-day war.

“There is no army in the world that can (force us) to drop our weapons from our hands, from our grip,” he declared.

That last statement would seem to indicate that neither can the government of Prime Minister Siniora. While the PM has received high marks from Lebanese citizens on his handling of reconstruction ($940 million and counting), his government has come under attack from two sides; Christian opportunist Michel Aoun and the Hizbullah/Amal bloc.

Strange bedfellows indeed, those two. Aoun heads up the Free Patriotic Movement, the largest Christian party, and has joined forces with Hizbullah in Parliament, making them the second largest bloc behind the reformist Future Movement. Aoun seeks the Presidency that will be vacated by Syrian toady Emile Lahoud next year, despite the firm opposition of many in the Future Movement who believe him to be too sectarian in his outlook. This so riled the former anti-Syrian Prime Minister and President that he signed a letter of cooperation with pro-Syrian Nasrallah last February that most observers believe meant that Nasrallah would throw his bloc of votes behind Aoun for President when the time comes.

Aoun has also been calling on Siniora to resign and for a “Government of National Unity” to be formed, savaging Siniora by blaming him for not being able to protect Lebanon from Israeli jets and accusing some of his ministers of corruption.

Haaretz is reporting that al-Manar, the Hizbullah TV station is saying that many Christians joined Nasrallah at the rally today:

Hezbollah’s Al-Manar television said thousands of buses, minivans and cars were streaming toward Beirut from the south and the eastern Bekaa Valley. Members of Christian parties and pro-Syrian groups in northern Lebanon were also traveling to the capital to participate in the rally, the broadcast said.

Al-Manar said late Thursday that Friday’s rally would be “the biggest referendum on the resistance choice.” It said “waves of humans” would pour into the bombed-out southern suburbs of Beirut to support the guerrillas.

Meanwhile, the Israelis point out the obvious:

Israeli Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mark Regev said Hezbollah is spitting in the face of the international community by refusing to disarm.

“Nasrallah is challenging not only the government of Lebanon, but the entire international community,” Regev said. “The international community can’t afford to have this Iranian-funded extremist spit in the face of the organized community of nations.”

Regev noted that according to the UN cease-fire resolution, Hezbollah “shouldn’t have any rockets.”

Nasrallah also boasted at the rally that he still had fighters in southern Lebanon despite the presence of UNIFIL and the Lebanese army. But please don’t tell Kofi Anan about either the fighters or the rockets. Such unpleasant truths would ruin his reputation as a peace maker not to mention the fact that he would actually have to direct criticism at someone besides the United States or Israel.

Ya Libnan spoke for the still majority of Lebanese who see Nasrallah as a threat:

The very same man who needed Lebanon’s government to negotiate an end to the conflict has come out of hiding to beat his chest and discredit the government. In a speech riddled with contradictions, Nasrallah made every attempt to present Lebanon’s Prime Minister and his allies in a weak light.

“The current government cannot protect, unite and reconstruct Lebanon,” Nasrallah said, adding “a strong state is built with the formation of a government of national unity.”

Ironically, it is the government who should be credited for rallying world support for Lebanon. Siniora gathered $940 million at the donors conference. Siniora offered $40,000 in support to each household impacted by the war. Hizbullah initially vowed to rebuild the destroyed areas, then ran into financial issues and had to call on its big brother Iran for financial support.

Nasrallah even admitted there is a real political crisis in Lebanon and urged all Lebanese not to transform such a problem into a sectarian crisis.

However the Hizbullah chief went on to make a comment that goes against any pretense of “national unity” by posing an open threat: “I will not tolerate any insults to my people.”

Nasrallah’s threats should be taken very seriously. Several prominent Future Movement politicians have harshly criticized Hizbullah for a wide variety of transgressions including charges that they seek to overthrow the government and that their refusal to disarm threatens the Lebanese state. The old Druze warlord Walid Jumblatt has been especially critical of both Nasrallah personally and Hizbullah in particular. One wonders if Nasrallah will make good on his threat made at the height of the war that he would “hold some accountable and forgive others,” for their criticisms.

One potential bright spot is the counter-demonstration being planned for Sunday by the Christian parties supporting the Future Movement. Lebanese Forces party headed up by the fiercely independent former Commander of the LF militia Samir Geagea hopes to outdraw Hizbullah with a massive demonstration of support for Siniora’s government. Geagea is a hero to many Lebanese for his refusal to leave solitary confinement where he spent 11 years if he would accept a deal offered by the Syrian backed government that he could be free if only he would curtail his political activity.

The question has to be is the government really in any danger of falling? The Future Movement has an absolute majority in Parliament so unless there were important defections from the coalition, Siniora would seem to be safe at the moment. However, Nasrallah controls the streets with his militia and given the political crisis in Lebanon right now, it would not take much to spark the kind of street violence that could lead to his downfall. This is Nasrallah’s ultimate domestic political weapon and he knows it. At the first sign of any wavering by important members of the March 14th coalition, he could engineer Siniora’s ouster.

For the moment, Nasrallah is basking in the adulation of his supporters. But the majority of Lebanese are still upset with he and his militia for starting the war, something they may very well prove on Sunday when they turn out in massive numbers to support the legitimate Lebanese government.