Yesterday, I wrote a post on the potential political fallout from the Foley affair. I thought then that the scandal was being orchestrated by Democrats in order to target one group of voters; the conservative evangelical Christan “values voters” who have been such an important part of the Republican coalition for the last 15 years.
According to this Washington Post article, the most recent Pew Research poll on the attitudes of this vital GOP group indicates that this voting bloc may be undergoing a seismic shift as far as its allegiance to Republican candidates:
Even a small shift in the loyalty of conservative Christian voters such as Sunde could spell trouble for the GOP this fall. In 2004, white evangelical or born-again Christians made up a quarter of the electorate, and 78 percent of them voted Republican, according to exit polls. But some pollsters believe that evangelical support for the GOP peaked two years ago and that what has been called the “God gap” in politics is shrinking.A nationwide poll of 1,500 registered voters released yesterday by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center found that 57 percent of white evangelicals are inclined to vote for Republican congressional candidates in the midterm elections, a 21-point drop in support among this critical part of the GOP base.
Even before the Foley scandal, the portion of white evangelicals with a “favorable” impression of the Republican Party had fallen sharply this year, from 63 percent to 54 percent, according to Pew polls.
To say that these are catastrophic numbers for a Republican party fighting for its political dominance in Congress is an understatement. Since it is generally assumed that only the most committed voters from each party will turn out to vote this November, a smaller base of voters quite simply translates into fewer votes. Considering how tight some races are in the heartland where evangelicals (more accurately, “white Christian protestants”) can constitute as much as 40% of a Republican’s vote, the devastating effect of losing a fifth of that number either to the Democrats or, as the Pew study shows, to voter apathy, illuminates clearly how the GOP could be in big, big trouble.
Even those voters who might be considered mainstream protestants – people who attend church once a week – are falling away from the GOP:
Nationally, the Republicans’ once formidable hold on churchgoing voters has begun to slip. Among those who say they attend church more than once a week, the GOP still holds a commanding lead. The main shift is among weekly churchgoers, about a quarter of all voters. Two years ago, they favored the GOP by a double-digit margin. But in the new Pew survey, 44 percent leaned toward Republicans and 43 percent toward Democrats, a statistical dead heat.The slippage is particularly striking among evangelicals. According to Pew data, the portion of white evangelical Protestants who identify themselves as Republicans rose steadily from 2000 to 2004 but leveled off this year at about half. The percentage who support keeping troops in Iraq has dropped to 55 percent, from 68 percent in early September.
The survey was taken the last 10 days of September and first 4 days of October – not entirely within the time frame of the Foley matter but close enough to give a flavor of how the once reliable Christian GOP voter is viewing it. And, not surprisingly, those voters appear to be very upset with the leadership in the House:
Lynn Sunde, an evangelical Christian, is considering what for her is a radical step. Come November, she may vote for a Democrat for Congress.Sunde, 35, manages a coffee shop and attends a nondenominational Bible church. “You’re never going to agree with one party on everything, so for me the key has always been the religion issues—abortion, the marriage amendment” to ban same-sex unions, she said.
That means she consistently votes Republican. But, she said, she is starting to worry about the course of the Iraq war, and she finds the Internet messages from then-Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) to teenage boys “pretty sickening.” When she goes into the voting booth this time, she said, “I’m going to think twice. . . . I’m not going to vote party line as much as to vote issues.”
Does this mean that conservative Christan’s are about ready to abandon the Republican party and vote Democrat? Not hardly:
But before Democrats take credit for the shift, they might ponder one of the findings in a recent survey of 2,500 voters by the Center for American Values, a project of the left-leaning People for the American Way Foundation: Republicans have lost more support (14 percentage points) than Democrats have picked up (4 points) among frequent churchgoers.That rings true to Michael Cromartie, an expert on evangelicals at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, a Washington think tank. “Erosion for evangelicals doesn’t necessarily lead to Democratic voting. It leads to nonvoting,” he said.
This despite the well publicized effort by Dr. Dean and the DNC to “reach out” to the church going public in order to siphon support away from Republicans.
Apparently, Republicans are perfectly capable of driving voters away from the polls altogether without much help from Dean and Co.
Does all this necessarily lead to a certain Democratic victory in November?
Let’s not forget Karl Rove and what many observers believe is the most sophisticated get out the vote operation in political history. The Rove plan uses huge networks of ordinary citizens to contact voters, identify not only those who support Republicans but more importantly, those who are likely to vote on election day, and then assign something like a guardian angel to that voter to make sure that they go to the polls.
It proved wildly successful in 2004 as the Rovian machine marched 14 million new GOP voters to the polls and offset a determined Democratic effort, the most expensive in that party’s history.
Can he repeat that magic? Is there one more rabbit in the Rovian hat that he can pull out and save the GOP on election day by the sheer brute force contained in the millions of volunteers who will go the extra mile to get their friends and neighbors to the polls?
At this point, it just doesn’t seem probable. The discouragement and disgust felt by many of those volunteers may overcome any enthusiasm they may have felt at one time for Republicans and victory. And failing to enervate their spirits in the face of so many tight races across the country could very well mean that the Democrats will succeed and the GOP will go down to an embarrassing defeat.
12:24 pm
(Update) Bush opponents get religion
The Lord is my Shepherd; I shall not want.
He maketh me to lie down in green pastures:
He leadeth me beside the still waters.
He restoreth my soul:
He leadeth me in the paths of righteousness for His name’ sake.
1:03 pm
Having lived in the Southeastern U.S. my entire life, and having more than my fair shair of “God fearin’” conservatives im my family, I would say that there was never a real gap to begin with.
All of that “Jay-sus” crap is put on. They use their fake religousity to put down others, when behind closed doors they have their own ultra nasty secrets.
The GOP reflects the majority of its voters,what can I say?? And any scandals within the GOP just reflects the foulness that festers within the base’s own soul, so they’ll probably avoid the polls this election year out of shear embarrassment, a deep seeded feeling that they themselves have been “found out”.
2:10 pm
“The GOP reflects the majority of its voters,what can I say??”
I’d say you’re clueless. You think you somehow know what’s in the hearts of the majority of conservatives because you have what you call “your fair share of ‘God fearin’ conservatives in my family.” Unless your family includes several million conservatives, I’d say SHUT UP. The irony in your comment is that it shows that you are just as nasty as your family is.
2:38 pm
[...] Moran puts a little lipstick on that pig by noting that most of those disaffected voters don’t appear to be crossing the aisle, just staying home. So it’s not a worst-case scenario. [...]
2:46 pm
[...] As reported ably by Rick Moran here. [...]
3:08 pm
Larry:
Your comment was deleted for being non germane to the post.
If you want to spout – get your own goddamn blog.
3:09 pm
aren’t we testy?
3:10 pm
Gee Melanie, there sure seems to be alot of anger and contempt in your post. I also am from the “South” and was raised with “God Fearin” Christins, and my experience couldn’t be more different than yours. To be sure, my Christian friends and family aren’t perfect, but then, who is? It seems to me if someone claims to believe in Christ, and has any sort of weaknesses or sins burdening their life, then your aren’t really considered a Christian by some folks. I’m not perfect, and frequently(quite frequently!) ask for forgivness of my sins. But I still believe in Christ, and call myself a Christian. I don’t claim to be a perfect Christian, just a forgiven one. I’m sorry that the folks you were raised with didn’t live up to your expectations of what a Christian can be. But that doesn’t mean that the Christian experience is invalid. I hope you can come to find the Love of Christ yourself, and be able to show it in a much better way than you have seen in others. I don’t mean to sound “preachy”, but you sounded so bitter, I had to respond. God Bless You.
3:47 pm
melanie, I agree with Mitzi. You sound so bitter, so secular, so democrat.
I’m also from the south, Alabama to be precise and I try to live my life the best way I can and I know when I make mistakes Christ is there to forgive us, but you sound like you want to make a mockery out of Christ, like alot of dems, I’m sorry but I just don’t think most dems are Christians.
5:18 pm
Do they do any polls on “fallen away” Democrats? Aside from knowing quite a few, I am one. Oh, and we love to go vote against them, too.
2:13 pm
Thin-skinned Christians react! And fire back with general “demonizations” of their own: “most dems aren’t Christians”? hehe.
Oh, well. Let’s face it, most “Christians” I have known in my 61 years aren’t “Christian” if to be really Christian is to follow the teachings and example of Jesus of Nazareth.
My dad founded a Bible College, I jumped through all the hoops, have a genuine personal relationship with my Maker, with Jesus, and no longer claim to be a Christian.
When people vote for apartheid, against equality of the sexes, against freedom and in support of unholy and illegal wars, are they Christian?
When people who claim to be Christian do not respond to criticism in love and forgiveness, are they Christian?
You see, my spiritual relationship to the Great One is mine. It is personal. If someone sees my example and is drawn to it and wants me to say something about it to help him or her, that’s when I talk about it.
Otherwise, leave the so-called “Christian” thing out of politics and out of the discussion. If you ain’t doin’ it, you ugly.
Fix your ugly, be your own beautiful self and then talk in a way that is helpful.
Jesus said, “By this shall all men know that you are my disciples—if you love one another.”
Most talking “Christians” I know simply aren’t. I can tell. Walk the walk, then people will take you and your concerns seriously.
Love, Steve
5:09 pm
So, loving Steve, following your example, if I want to be a Christian I should be smug and self-righteous and refuse to share my faith unless asked?
Out of curiousity, how do you know that you have a “genuine personal relationship” with your Maker? Does he talk to you? Does he come visit you from time to time? Or are you just imagining things?
9:37 pm
Dear antimedia:
Well, I forgive you for attitude and for calling me smug and self-righteous.
I think you missed the point of what I said.
I said if you have a real relationship with Jesus Christ, you show it with your life. Then, that will sometimes stimulate curiosity in someone who wants what you have.
I’m tired of people who claim something and don’t live it.
Sometimes I think my life reflects the reality of my relationship with my Maker.
I don’t claim to be a Christian.
I just be me and try to help people.
As for my personal relationship, that’s mine.
There’s no argument about that inside of me.
I never argue about it or try to explain it or “prove” it verbally.
Sometimes people want to know how they can get what I’ve got. You obviously don’t see it. That’s cool. I’m just me.
So, what can I do for you that will help you today, antimedia? What’s your name?
Love,
Stephen