The apparently successful North Korean nuclear test – long expected but still a shock to the world’s nervous system – signals a change on the strategic threat board at the Pentagon the likes of which haven’t been seen since the Soviet Union acquired the bomb in 1949.
It isn’t just that North Korea is unpredictable, bellicose, and led by what some observers believe to be a mentally unstable leader in Kim Jong Il. If the problem was confined to North Korean nuclear capabilities, the situation would be troublesome but not dire. What has most of the world’s leaders worried this morning is that the North Korean nuclear demonstration will initiate a chain of events in other countries that could lead to a nuclear arms race involving Japan and South Korea as well.
The only other option is for the United States to extend its nuclear umbrella to cover both countries by clearly annunciating a policy of nuclear retaliation for any attack by North Korea on their neighbors. There is a possibility that the Japanese would reluctantly accept such a guarantee and forgo building the bomb. Pacifism is still deeply rooted in Japanese politics and the constitutional changes necessary for Tokyo to build up its defensive force into a nuclear power would be difficult to enact. Nevertheless, Japan’s new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has already indicated a willingness to alter the nature of the armed forces, making them more robust and able to respond and participate in international military efforts. It is also thought that Japan has the ability to construct a nuclear weapon in approximately 6 months using its homegrown uranium enrichment industry.
South Korea would probably politely refuse such protection from the United States, demonstrating in the past a preference for not angering the North Koreans by getting too close to Washington. Seoul’s own nuclear efforts came to light in 2004 when they were “outed” by the IAEA who discovered that the South’s nuclear efforts stretched back all the way to 1982. However, given the minuscule amount of resources dedicated to South Korea’s program to date, most experts believe that they would be at least 3 years away from being able to build their own nuclear device.
Japan also has to consider the reaction of China to any attempt to construct a nuclear arsenal. The Chinese have very long memories about World War II and the brutal occupation of much of the country by the Japanese military. Beijing is extraordinarily sensitive about any signs that militarism is resurgent in Japan, going so far as to protest the visit by Abe to a shrine that honors Japanese war dead, including war criminals. You can bet if Tokyo decides to build nuclear weapons that the Chinese will feel that they have little choice but to cool relations with Japan and build up their own nuclear arsenal as fast as they can.
In fact, the nuclear test by the North Koreans has been a bitter blow to Chinese prestige. Both China and Russia have demonstrated extreme reluctance in the past to initiate sanctions against the North Koreans, preferring enticements in trade and aid to some of the more draconian measures advocated by the United States. In that respect, the Chinese have given the North Koreans billions in direct aid over the last few years, supplying them with almost all of their refined oil products as well as giving them massive amounts of food aid to keep millions of rural North Koreans from starving to death.
The nuclear test by the North Koreans has been an embarrassment to China and has now caused the so-called “Six Party Talks” to collapse. This may have been part of Kim’s plan in conducting the test because the North Koreans have stressed repeatedly that they would prefer to deal with the United States directly in bi-lateral talks. The reasons are quite simple; they feel they can get more diplomatic goodies from the US in direct negotiations than they could in talks involving the South, Japan, Russian and China.
For our part, the Bush Administration believed that only China and to some extent Russia had the necessary clout to make the North Koreans cease their nuclear efforts. We also felt freezing South Korea out of any bi-lateral arrangements with the North would be detrimental to our relationship with Seoul.
All of this is moot now as the world community is forced to deal with another nuclear power – the most problematic in history. You can bet that the mullahs in Iran are watching how the world handles this crisis very closely. They have gambled that the UN will bicker and argue a bit and then impose some kind of sanctions on North Korea that are either so watered down as to be useless or easily circumvented by those wishing to do business with the North anyway.
Another interested party in watching world reaction to the news of North Korea’s nuclear test are the Islamic fundamentalists in Pakistan. A little more than a year from now, they could very well be in power in Islamabad – if elections are held as scheduled next December. How will the world community react to a government openly sympathetic to the Taliban and al-Qaeda and one which possesses up to 60 nuclear weapons of their own?
There are some nightmares best left unspoken and unimagined. The consequences would be too terrible to contemplate.
UPDATE
All I can say about the coverage at Michelle Malkin’s blog is “Wow.” Very comprehensive for such a short period of time elapsing.
8:14 am
North Korean Nuts Test Nukes: Open Thread
My annilation by nuclear bomb doesn’t bother me nearly as much as day to day cultural decline. Strange, eh?
For those following the news about North Korea’s nuclear test, you may comment here. Post relevant news and blog links here, too….
8:35 am
The Club Gets Larger?
North Korea wanted the bomb, and there was nothing anyone could do to stop them. That’s a lesson that must be driven home now, while the question of Iran’s nuclear ambitions remains one that is still short of actually possessing the bomb.
9:17 am
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9:18 am
[...] Rick Moran reminds me of something I’d intended to mention in my original post: The nuclear test by the North Koreans has been an embarrassment to China and has now caused the so-called “Six Party Talks†to collapse. This may have been part of Kim’s plan in conducting the test because the North Koreans have stressed repeatedly that they would prefer to deal with the United States directly in bi-lateral talks. The reasons are quite simple; they feel they can get more diplomatic goodies from the US in direct negotiations than they could in talks involving the South, Japan, Russian and China. [...]
11:38 am
[...] Rightwing Nuthouse Bomb Korea Nuclear Nuke Test Filed in: Uncategorized | 7 Comments » North Korea Says it Detonated Nuclear Bomb… [...]
12:09 pm
North Korea Shows Us How Terrifyng We Are
Don Surber reports on North Korea’s successful nuclear test. Japan and South Korea are unhappy about this, mostly because the wacky antics of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il are more worrisome when you’re in missile range of the guy. Many…
12:20 pm
North Korea Nuclear Test: World Concern And Finger Pointing
The bottom line: tough talk from the United States and the United Nations failed to do the trick.
North Korean conducted a nuclear test anyway, and there are suggestions another one will be on the way. And what can and will the U.S. and th…
1:48 pm
I thought Dubya said this was never going to happen. Get used to it. There is nothing we can do about it as we have lost any pretensions to world leadership. Ditto Iran. At some point adults are going to take back responsibility for running US foreign policy.
2:19 pm
Like Kim Mentally Il would do this if China told them not too ? ! I think the Chinese are telling NK one thing and the world another. No one should trust the Chinese.
2:35 pm
Also bookmark http://www.armscontrolwonk.com – they tend to have pretty good technical analyses, and more important they often provide Google Earth kmz files of interesting sites. (Even civilian spy sat resolution is useful.)
2:39 pm
I see where Dr. Lewis thinks the test was a dud – “all fizzle no pop” according to one wag.
He makes a convincing case except the Russkies don’t agree:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061009/ap_on_re_eu/russia_nkorea
My thoughts on this later…
2:40 pm
Okay, my thesis hasn’t been CONFIRMED yet that it was a Scam “nuke”; but some others are now suspicious:
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/10/09/europe/EU_GEN_Detecting_Nuclear_Tests.php
2:47 pm
World Leaders Condemn North Korea
“More Fizz than Pop” was one of the official quotes that came out of the WhiteHouse over night, referring to North Korea’s Nuclear test. Nevertheless it has set back the global moratorium on nuclear explosive testing that has been in place for nearl…
3:45 pm
otto, get real, clinton appeased north korea, gave em a ton of money for food and they promised to stop, did they NO, THEY LIED, cut the crap about dubya, not everything in this universe happens cuz of Bush, I wish he were that good.
4:08 pm
Drewsmom, I agree that George Bush is not the cause of all things bad. But not everything bad that happens is because of Bill Clinton, either. All presidents have faults and make mistakes. Can we all grow up a touch, for heavens sake?
6:48 pm
K. Peninsula’s Ring of Fire…
Under the leadership of Kim Jong Il, what would be the further impact placed upon this region, in the event of accidental launchings, or hushing the effects of a underground test accident?
8:46 pm
ed: Drewsmom is just frustrated because of otto’s non-substantive comment. Clinton has lots of faults, but I don’t think this was one of them. So he tried a carrot approach that didn’t work In hindsight, a mistake? Well, maybe. What we want to know, otto, is how responsible adults would deal with this foreign policy issue?
9:57 pm
Well, Well, Well, check out Drudge for the latest on the Faux NK “nuke”!
You heard it here, first…!