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Almost every major political analyst, both Republican and Democratic, is predicting a Democratic takeover of the House as a result of the election today.

A sample (+15 Dem needed for Democratic control):

Stuart Rothenberg (D): +30-36 seats Dem
Larry Sabato (D): +29 seats Dem
Charlie Cook (D): +20-35 seats Dem
Evans-Novak (R): +19 seats Dem
Richard Baehr (R) – The American Thinker: +15-20 Dems
Blogging Ceasar (R): +25 seats Dem

My own projection is for a Democratic gain of at least 18 but not more than 23 seats in the House and 3 seats in the Senate. I base this estimate largely on the work of others but have added a few wrinkles of my own including weighting races according to the winning percentage of Bush in the district (more than 54% gives the Republican a 5 point edge), the incumbency factor (a candidate running for a third term or better garners 2 extra points in the polls), and another 2 points for a GOTV advantage (which is well in line with the numbers here).

In short, any GOP candidate within 9 or 10 points could pull out a victory given the right circumstances.

While the Iraq War has played a major role in this campaign, the fact is that the GOP started out this race basically 4 seats down. Scandals and malfeasance in dead red reliably Republican districts made this election and uphill climb from the beginning for the GOP. Couple that fact with numerous open seats where the GOP failed to recruit 1st tier candidates to run against superior Democratic challengers and you had a disaster in the making almost before the election had gotten underway.

Is all hope lost for GOP retention of the House? One fairly reliable barometer in the past, Tradesports.Com is trading GOP chances to retain control of the House below 20 this morning. And that contract has been dropping like a rock for the last week despite the polling news over the weekend about a narrowing of the generic ballot race.

Nevertheless, here a a couple of things to cling to if it is hope you are looking for:

1. House polls are usually incredibly inaccurate.
2, All of the analysts above point to some kind of a GOP surge over the last week.
3. The unknown impact of the Kerry “joke” on tight races (The Pew Poll suggests a larger than expected impact nationwide. How that plays out locally is a hard to gauge.)
4. Absentee and early voting suggesting some surprises today.

Not much to cheer about, I’m afraid. The only piece of good news I can give is that I think Democrats are nippin’ at the Kool Aid if they think that there’s some kind of “wave” that will bring them 30 or 40 seats. If there was such a wave it has dissipated as a result of both the Kerry joke and reluctant Republicans finally deciding over the last week to hold their noses, go the the polls, and vote for the GOP.

Notwithstanding all of this, I believe there is sliver of a chance for the GOP to maintain House control. Here are 13 House races to watch tonight. In order for the GOP to maintain control of the lower house, they will have to win all 13 of these seats (or pray for some major upsets elsewhere).

These are 13 races universally considered almost certain Dem pick-ups or toss-ups. If the Republicans can take all 13, they could limit their losses to 12-14 seats and thus, keep control of the House. If they lose more than 1 or 2, Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the House next January.

I chose these 13 seats based on their winnability for the GOP (see methodology above). But I must tell you that this scenario has less than a 1 in 5 chance of playing out successfully. I believe it much more likely that the GOP wins 4-9 of these seats with an outside chance at 10.

1. OHIO 18

Joy Padgett is running a good race in the District Bob Ney disgraced with his guilty plea associated with the Abramoff scandal. Strong Dem challenger Zack Space has a huge lead in the polls but given this is a very red district (Bush 57% in 2004) and some late help from the RNC, local newspapers believe Padgett is closing.

2. New York 20

Incumbent John Sweeney had been locked in a tight race with Dem challenger Kirsten Giillibrand when late last week, a police report was released from December, 2005 that purported to show a domestic violence incident. Sweeney and his wife appeared together to say that the way the report was spun was untrue. They gave the State Police permission to release the entire report but the damage had already been done. Even in this red district (Bush 54%) Sweeney is a likely goner. Incumbency and GOTV efforts may save him but it is a longshot.

3. TX 22

Tom DeLay’s seat requires GOP voters to write in the name of Shelley Sekula-Gibbs – not once but twice. That’s because there are two races on the ballot; one to fill out the unexpired DeLay term and one for the next Congress.

The fact that Bush received 64% of the vote in this district means that a helluva lot more Republicans than Democrats are going to be showing up at the polls today. Whether most of them can write in her name is the big question mark. National party has sunk about $1.3 million into this race to educate people how to vote. They may just pull it off.

Expect this one to go on for weeks as Dems challenge ballots where Sekula-Gibbs name is misspelled, or reversed, or there’s no hyphen, or…(fill in the blank).

NOTE: Thanks to a commenter, I’m told that voters only have to write in Sekula-Gibbs name once. She is on the ballot to fill out the remainder of DeLay’s term.

4. Florida 16

Tom Foley’s old seat has also been the object of the national party’s largess. That’s because Foley is still on the ballot. Another million bucks spent here to educate voters that a vote for Foley is actually a vote for his GOP replacement Joe Negron. GOP helped here by lackluster Dem challenger Tim Mahoney and expected strong GOTV effort in a district Bush got 54% of the vote.

5. North Carolina 11

Eight termer Charlie Taylor is in the fight of his political life with former pro quarterback Heath Shuler. The 11th is sandy soil, scrub pine country and Shuler has run a good race in the largely rural areas. These are fiercely independent folks who regularly elect Democrats (despite the fact that Bush got 57% of the vote). Taylor has a history of closing strong and this could be one of the few GOP bright spots tonight.

6. Indiana 2

This is the first of 3 Indiana districts that are in play today. In this reddest of red states, why these three are in trouble shows not only how well the Democrats have done in recruiting candidates in marginally competitive races for them but also GOP vulnerabilities among their base supporters.

Republican Chris Chocola is going for a third term against a strong Dem challenger Joe Donnelly. After winning by a landslide in 2004, Chocola finds himself trailing going into the final weekend. Here I think incumbency and GOTV efforts (Bush 56%) could end up saving him. But Donnelly is no liberal and has run an outstanding campaign, tying himself to “Indiana values.”

7. Florida 13

This seat is open as a result of Katherine Harris leaving to run for the Senate. The fact that she will be slaughtered today by Senator Bill Nelson could help drag a couple of Floridian GOP’ers with her.

By local reports, Republican Vern Buchanan has run an uninspired campaign in a district where Bush received 56% of the vote. But Buchanan got a boost with a recent visit by Laura Bush and his Democratic challenger, Christine Jennings, while running a smart campaign, found herself nearly broke by the weekend. A last minute infusion of cash from the DNC helped and this race is almost certainly too close to call.

8. New Mexico 1

While Bush got less than 50% of the vote in this district, 3 termer Heather Wilson is a scrappy campaigner and has run an excellent race. Dem challenger, Attorney General Patricia Madrid is well funded but inexperienced; she allowed Wilson to tar her with failing to do her job in a corruption case involving a state official. This plus Wilson’s incumbency may make the difference in a district that has been trending Democratic for years.

9. Indiana 9

Vulnerable first termer Mike Sodrel is in a tough fight with former Representative Baron Hill. Both candidates have been slugging it out in one of the dirtier campaigns in the country.

Both candidates are well known, well funded, and have good ground games. But Bush got a whopping 59% of the vote in this district and it appears that later polls are showing Sodrel pulling ahead. This one is probably a Republican hold.

10. Illinois 6

This is an open seat in a race to fill the spot of retiring GOP icon Henry Hyde. The Dems have pulled out all the stops in this one, recruiting a very articulate, attractive double amputee Iraq War vet Tammie Duckworth. She is smart and well funded but her inexperience has shown on the stump.

GOP hopeful Peter Roskam is much more polished having served in the Illinois House and Senate for 14 years, worked on Capitol Hill for Hyde, and been a political fixture in the district that went for Bush with 53% of the vote. Roskam has tried to paint the moderate Duckworth as a liberal, tying her to Ted Kennedy. Duckworth has tried to pin the extremist label on the moderately conservative Roskam. Both have failed and this one is definitely in the toss up column. Give Roskam a slight edge due to his big lead in very red Dupage County.

11. Arizona 5

Six termer J.D. Hayworth is in a tight battle with former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell. Another example of excellent recruiting by the Dems in a marginally competitive district as Hayworth coasted to victory in 2004 with 60% of the vote, outperforming Bush who got 57% in the district.

Mitchell is another moderate who is as strong as J.D. on immigration reform thus closing off an avenue of attack that Hayworth has used successfully in past campaigns. This race shows Mitchell surging the last two weeks and may tip to the Democrats.

12. California 11

This is a district the Dems targeted from the beginning despite the seven termer Richard Pombo’s record of racking up large margins of victory. The demographics of the district are changing rapidly (Bush 52%) with heavily Hispanic areas growing rapidly.

The Dem challenger Jerry McNerney is extremely well funded and has run a spirited campaign, scoring points against Pombo repeatedly for his votes on the war and veterans benefits. Pombo on the other hand has recently received a huge boost from a visit by Laura Bush and has an excellent ground game in place. Expect this one to be very tight and probably a real bellwether on how the night will go for both sides. A McNerney win will probably signal a big night for the Dems.

13. Kentucky 3

Six termer Anne Northup is showing strong in this Dem leaning district as she once again is enduring a tough challenge. She faces former newspaperman and columnist John Yarmouth who local papers say has underperformed in this race against the vulnerable incumbent.

Northup has run a good race, marred by tragedy. She lost her son last summer which placed the campaign on hold for both sides. That didn’t stop the classless folks at Moveon.Org from holding anti-Northup events which may have damaged Yarmouth’s chances. Also, Northup’s demise has been predicted in every election since she got to Washington. A good shot at a GOP hold here.

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I expect that the GOP will hold 4 of these seats. But if it is, in fact, a Democratic night, even candidates like Taylor and Northrup could find themselves on the losing end of things.

One more note: If enough of these races are close, don’t expect Democrats to celebrate their takeover until tomorrow at the earliest. Many of these races could be in doubt for days as challenges, recounts, and other maneuvers play themselves out.