Years of living in Chicago with a baseball team like the Chicago Cubs has given me the gift of eternal hope. When spring rolls around, the entire city with one voice breathes the words “This could be the year.” And even when it isn’t, we know that there will always be another spring, another chance to make good the promise that springtime brings.
Two years is not that long to wait for renewal. It should start now with some hard and brutal introspection by GOP leaders and an acknowledgement of their total and complete failure – failure as public servants and as honorable men and women. And that introspection should extend to us, the rank and file. What are we asking of the party? More importantly, what are we asking of government?
Tough days ahead. But we’ll be all the better for it if we learn the right lessons and apply the right prescriptions for change. That’s what adults do about defeat. Not whine about “stolen elections” or “rigged machines.” Let’s take our medicine and participate in the birth of a better, more responsible, more responsive Republican party.
And that new party will not look much like the old one – or at least it shouldn’t. If we try to refashion the old majority, we will continue to lose or, in a best case scenario, win enough seats to be in a majority but not enough to enact the kinds of legislation (and start repealing others) that would bring true conservative governance to Washington.
If there is one thing exit polls are good for, it is breaking down the vote by age, income, religion, ideology, and other important indices. Here’s the bad news from exit polls taken for House races nationwide:
- Republicans saw their advantage with white men diminish from 62-37 in 2004 to 53-45 Their advantage with white women dropped from 55-44 in 2004 to a 49-49 tie. For the first time in memory, Republicans lost American males to the Democrats 51-47 compared to 55-44 advantage in 2004.
- In 2004, Bush lost the 18-29 age group but won in the 30-44, 45-59, and 60 and older. No age group voted in the majority for the GOP in 2006.
- The GOP has lost the middle class. In 2004, all income brackets above $50,000 voted in the majority for the GOP (those making $30-50,000 split their vote evenly). In 2006, only those making more than $100,000 and above voted Republican.
- In 2004, Republicans garnered majorities in all education groups except high school graduates and Post Doc grads. In 2006, the GOP failed to win any education group.
- Bush barely lost Independents to Kerry 49-48 in 2004. In 2006, indies went Dem 57-39.
- For the first time since 1976, the Republicans lost the Catholic vote 55-44. GOP won the Catholic vote 52-47 in 2004.
- The GOP lost 2/3 of the unmarried vote. Given that this demographic is growing and is now bigger than married couples, that is a huge stumbling block to majority status.
(Here’s a link to the 2004 exit polls and the 2006 exit polls.)
I could go on and on. The fact of the matter is that the GOP majority, cobbled together after the Reagan majority fell apart, was never really a true ideological coalition. That Reagan coalition had anti-communism as a powerful glue that held northeastern urban ethnics, blue collar rust belters, “Boll Weevil” Democrats, and Main Street Republicans together through good times and bad. The ex-Republican majority, made up of evangelical Christians and other social conservatives as well as a pastiche of libertarians, hawks, anti-immigration advocates, and fiscal conservatives had no ideological coherence. It was bound to crack when things went south.
In a large way, what was holding this coalition together was support for the President. But once Bush proved himself a weak sister on fiscal restraint, immigration, and even the war, there was nothing to keep the majority together except blind loyalty to Bush and the Presidency. And enough conservatives (20%) actually got so disgusted with the President and the GOP that they crossed over and voted Democratic.
We can’t just abandon Bush – not when the Democrats are sharpening their knives to come after him, the Presidency, the war, tax cuts, and the entire conservative agenda. The opposition to the President will be relentless as will the investigations into Iraq, war reconstruction, internal security, Katrina, energy policy, and anything else that strikes the fancy of a Democratic Committee or Sub-Committee chairman. Some of those investigations will no doubt reveal shocking waste, fraud, and abuse. Criminal charges will be forthcoming. Impeachment, demanded by the netnuts from day one, will almost certainly be on the table. And there will be much witch hunting as well as fishing expeditions into White House activities.
But Bush himself is going to have to change his way of governance if he is going to survive the next two years. I hold out little hope that he will do so. Already he is talking about reviving his flawed “guest worker” initiative, thinking he can pass it now that he has a Democratic majority in both the House and the Senate. And I believe that he will take the “out” offered by the Iraq Study Group (Baker Commission) to leave Iraq before the job is done. If he does these things and if he continues to preside over the fiscal mess we find ourselves in, he will score no points with Democrats and lose the rest of his base, leaving him dangling, twisting slowly, slowly in the wind as the Democrats flay what’s left of his presidency to shreds.
There is much serious thought to be given to where the party is today and where it should be headed in the future. I anticipate that conservative blogs will play a role in redefining the party and refashioning a viable, coherent coalition that will bring the GOP back from the depths we are in today. There will be clashes of ideas. There will probably be a certain amount of fingerpointing. But blogs will be able to cull and synthesize the blizzard of ideas that will bubble up from the grass roots and present them for discussion to those who lead the party. And with any number of candidates for President waiting in the wings, many of these ideas have a real shot at being incorporated into a winning strategy that would bring the GOP victory in 2008.
We are standing on the crest of a bluff overlooking a vast undiscovered country of ideas and solutions. Let’s hope that we have the courage and the will to seize the opportunity and conquer that country for our party, ourselves, and our country.
7:35 am
The Hard-Left whackjobs are spewing their hate and crowing about victory. However, the majority of the newly-elected Democrats are moderates. Pelosi is preaching “bipartisanship” as the way to do business. She knows that any Liberal agenda will backfire on the Dems in 2008. The victory by Joe Lieberman shows how futile the efforts of the Socialists and Bolsheviks are with regard to winning elections. The Dems will “reach out” and the GOP needs to be cautious in this bipartisan environment as any GOP activity perceived as partisan will be magnified by the Left-Wing old broadcast and print media.
8:14 am
Rick,
Contrary to Pelosi’s placations, I’m guessing the House will vote for articles of impeachment before the August recess next year.
Thoughts?
8:18 am
Depends what they find. If the Administration has a “John Dean” who would sell everyone out to save his own hide (and lie about their own role) who knows? Could be sooner.
8:36 am
Election ‘06: The Day After
[Latest items on top] Let’s learn our lessons: “That’s what adults do about defeat. Not whine about “stolen elections†or “rigged machines.†Let’s take our medicine and participate in the birth of a better, more responsible, more responsi…
8:42 am
When I was 11, I had an idea that I could use a 3” tetherball pole mounted in concrete inside a truck tire to throw me across the playground. My friend, Mike, pulled down the pole and I grabbed the top. He pushed it up and gravity took over. After the pole passed the vertical, it stopped and I did not. In a Wiley Coyote moment, I slid down with a large lump on my forehead.
Mike helped me stumble to the boys’ bathroom where we wet down brown paper towels and applied them to my face to delay the swelling. About the time my teacher walked in, I saw my face in the mirror morphing from schoolboy to Neanderthal and began to laugh uncontrollably. The teacher thought my reaction might me trauma induced and asked my why I was laughing.
“I know what my father is going to ask me,” I replied. Dad, a career naval officer, played football at Ga Tech, island hopped as a SeaBee in WWII and earned a magna cum Laude MBA at Harvard. “He’s going to say, ‘Did you learn anything?’”
At the polls yesterday, the Republican Party had their Wiley Coyote moment. My father’s question still applies. Did they learn anything?
8:44 am
It will take much longer than two years to become a majority again. Whatever the Republican party will be in two years will be mostly what you see now. The Democrats are, if anything, very skilled politicians—they won this time with no real agenda, no real plan. Consider:
The House
The new “moderates” in the Democratic party will likely have near-zero impact on the new leadership. The only issue is how skillful (and I’d say they will be extremely skillful) in pursuing liberal agendas.
The Senate
Given the moderate-left Republicans remaining and reading the 2008 tea leaves, the Republicans will likely continue folding their hand. Even more so if the Democrats get to 51.
The Legislation
Every bill will build the Democrat agenda and expand their base. The Immigration Reform Act of 2007 will be a true boon to Democratic turnout. And that’s just the start. The Democrats are truly the professional political party and much more skilled than Republicans in taking care of their various bases – directly by funding aid, indirectly by regulation, and indirectly by judges. Bush is, perhaps, a on of the few truly moderate politicians still walking and will almost certainly sign any bill that wonders by.
The Media and Etc
The old media still controls public opinion. Public opinion will continue to be shoved into the Democratic column. With Republicans out of power (presuming the Senate swings), how many Republicans will be even offered an interview on any national media except Fox? Anything that is positive will be reported as due to Democrats’ hurculean effort in the face of Bush; everything negative will continue to be due to Bush and Republicans. You should be able to script this today.
2008
The next election cycle will be a sure Democratic win for the Congress (iot’s hard to imagine how they can dramatically misstep). The Presidency is an open issue only because the Democrats could still nominate Kerry. Other than that, it will be at least another four election cycles before Republicans take control.
Summary
The Democratic agenda will continue to be the winning agenda and only accelerate over the next few years. In 16 years the Democrats of today will be considered “conservativeâ€.
Good luck in finding a coalition of amateur politicians.
8:54 am
The Morning After
… the night before. Some excellent thoughts about what comes next, from our friends at RWNH:
9:51 am
Buddy, it’s too late to talk about not abandoning Bush. As the Bedouins say: “As the camel falls to its knees, more knives are drawn.” And the camel is so very low already, his promises of victory backed by… illegal robocalls? Gee, who ever thought that one could backfire…
Once the subpoenas start flying, Republicans will be stepping over their own mothers just for a chance to slip in another shiv. It’s gonna make Mussolini’s hanging look pretty. And the circular firing squad will only grow, as the target becomes not just Bush but every Republican who supported Bush, didn’t oppose him vociferously enough, looks sorta like him, has a vaguely botanical name, etc. etc.
And I’ll admit. Ultimately, it will benefit the GOP, a couple decades down the road, once the gangrenous arms and legs of Bushism have finally finished necrotizing, but in the meantime, pass me the popcorn.
(And some hand lotion.)
9:56 am
The same voters who kept Republicans in power over the last decade have now handed control to the Democrats. If the voters weren’t stupid before, then they’re not stupid now. It’s sour grapes to simply claim they’re stupid now when they weren’t stupid before.
The Democrats were energized; the Republicans slightly less so. It was enough to make the difference. Corruption and Iraq appear to be highest on voters’ minds this time around.
Many new Democrat victors ran very conservative campaigns. Their voters appear to have voted for a change of direction, making this vote simply a rebellion against the status quo.
Put it all together. My take: Americans are result-oriented, and there was a shift in perspective that the Republicans were not providing results any longer. Lack of success in Iraq, and corruption, were the difference-makers. Because the Democrats won with a slate of conservative Democrats, they had better govern from the center. Otherwise, in 2008 and 2010 the voters will return conservatives to power, and this election will have been merely an odd blip, of interest to political historians only.
10:40 am
In my mind the main factor of the GOP loss is that the GOP couldn’t overcome the constant drumbeat of negative “news” put out by the legacy media. Their “political wing” (Democrat Party) couldn’t win a seat as a dogcatcher without the clout of the media, which pulled out all the stops, dropping their cloak of non-bias to make sure the GOP lost. I’m more and more of the mind that the media is calling the shots and use the Dem’s as their political wing, instead of the Dem’s using the media as their PR dept.
10:53 am
This was only the first pull of the chain. It will take two flushes to rid this Nation of the foul mess that was made by these hateful lying corrupt incompetent pachyderms. As the water settles admittedly the Dems were more successful than I dared believe likely. Rick, you may have called this one (the election) right early on. Strike a match and keep that cloths pin on your nose for there is still roughly 114 weeks of Republican stench lingering in the air ahead of us. Rumor has it that Hastert is still insisting that he will not give up the Speaker Chair. Stay tuned. 2008 is scheduled for Phase II.
Banned but not out.
11:53 am
Rick, you are exactly correct. Bush and the Republicans brought this debacle on themselves. They bought it, paid for it and richly deserved it.
The Republican party had better either become truly conservative (both fiscally and socially), or get used to being the minority party.
They’d also better grow some spines. If we have another Republican “leader” like Squishy Wishy Washy Bill Frist (“can’t we all just be nice?”), the base will continue to snooze through elections.
One thing in Larry from L.A.’s post is correct. If Republicans don’t figure out how to energize their base, then 2008 will only magnify the Democrat majority and we’d better get ready for President Obama.
1:50 pm
“Rick, you are exactly correct. Bush and the Republicans brought this debacle on themselves. They bought it, paid for it and richly deserved it.”
Exactly!! I sat here and watched a Republican majority in the House & Senate, and control of the White House amount to … nada, nothing, nil, zip.
Its what happens when there is a leadership void, and boy, was there ever a leadership void. Of all the things that the Repubs could have done legislatively and didn’t. Strict imigration policy, permanent tax cuts, repeal of McCain-Feingold so we could get our 1st amendment rights back, etc. Well, I for one, was tired of a do-nothing, in-control Congress. I sat this one out since there didn’t seem to be any difference between Repubs acting like Democrats and real Democrats. What would the point have been?
3:40 pm
“I hold out little hope that he will do so. ”
Times change, people don`t.
3:55 pm
OK, so the Republicans lost.
Can I have my money back from all those earmarks that enriched the local coffers in the respective states but which did not work as far as re-election was concerned?
A refund would make the voters really accountable, wouldn’t it?
Or, is it that voters will not be bought?
Or, worse, I want the earmarks and idealogy as well.
4:28 pm
This is terrible. When the Democrats do everything they can to cut and run in Iraq as soon as possible how long until the Mullahs over in Iran, the Kim regime in N. Korea and the terrorists get together (or on their own) and strike at us because they know with Democrats in charge nothing will happen to them.
If things go this badly in 2008 does anyone know a nice safe place to live in the world?
7:51 pm
I’ve been going on about divided government being the best (in terms of doing the least amount of damage), and now we’ll get to see if that will result. I’m guessing it will. If the Democratic party gains control of the Senate as well, then in 2008 I will likely vote for the Republican candidate for President—-I’m thinking it’ll be McCain. And this is from someone who usually votes ‘donkey’.
7:55 pm
Another thing: I think this election proves once again that the American people at large are neither right wing conservatives or hard left liberals. They’re moderates. Look at California, a blue state with a red state governor. As goes California, so goes the nation.
8:45 pm
Am I the only one to observe that in D.C. the better whore wins the day? I often fear that the Left has more efficient whores than does the Right. Admit it . . . if you value whores, they are awesome.
10:18 pm
It’s back to the future with the DEMS! A 1970’s foreign policy (blame America first), and class warfare at home. The democrats are against tax cuts for the wealthy (anybody who makes more than 50k per year is wealthy in their eyes), and they’re all for tax cuts for the “middle class”. (News flash: anybody making less than 50k per year pays almost no federal income tax to begin with!)
The western European social welfare states are ever so successful that the DEMS want to follow them all right over the cliff.
Jesse Jackson, Teddy Kennedy, Joe Biden; the whole gang is back and in control. Enjoy the ride.
I think there is a real tall guy in a cave in western Pakistan who is laughing himself silly.
11:46 pm
The Republicans put out and signed the Contract for America over a dozen years ago and it was the Republican Party, not the voters, who broke that contract. I believed in that piece of paper promising a small, fiscally responsible government and, for a while, it seemed to work. Then 9/11 happened followed closely by the war and soon the Republican Party ran out of “airspeed and ideas” in the process. Hubris and arrogance brought them down and they deserved it much the same way the Democrats deserved their comeuppance 12 years ago.
The biggest question of all now is – did they learn anything from it? Time will tell.
12:52 am
The AP is reporting that 78,707,495 voted in this election. Compare that to 122,293,332 just two years ago. What mandate? What referendum? Why did 43.5 million voters stay home?