The Associated Press is reporting (and the Daily Star confirms) that Lebanon’s Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was killed by gunmen near Beirut on Tuesday. Gemayel was the son of former President Amin Gemayel, a respected politician and participant in the National Dialogue which until recently, sought to avert a crisis by negotiations with Hizbullah over a new “unity” government.

The choice of the younger Gemayel as a target was no accident. It sends an absolutely clear signal to the rest of Prime Minister Siniora’s cabinet, written in blood, that no one – not even the Prime Minister himself – is safe:

His fatal shooting will certainly heighten the political tension in Lebanon, where the leading Muslim Shiite party Hezbollah has threatened to topple the government if he does not get a bigger say in Cabinet decision making.

Gemayel was rushed to a nearby hospital seriously wounded, the Lebanese Broadcasting Corp. and Voice of Lebanon, the Phalange Party mouthpiece reported.

The party later announced that he was dead.

Crude, but effective. I doubt whether Nasrallah himself knew in advance. He doesn’t want civil strife. He’s willing to threaten it but when it comes right down to it, he would prefer to swallow Lebanon whole rather than pick up the pieces after a ruinous civil war.

That doesn’t mean that Nasrallah won’t use his militia to foment a crisis in the streets. But he is hoping that the pressure he can put on the March 14th Forces coupled with international pressure on Siniora to give in to his demands will give him what he wants without a messy sectarian conflict.

No. This attack has Syria’s stink all over it. It’s exactly the kind of crude message that Syria sent by assassinating Rafiq Hariri; oppose Syria and you die. I’m not sure what this will mean politically. Too many boxes within boxes to sort out. Nasrallah will deny involvement to the heavens and perhaps even accuse the government of carrying out the assassination in order to undercut his position with the people. The March 14th Forces must tread carefully lest they be seen as taking political advantage of the death of a member of a much beloved family in Lebanon. And the Christian Phalange party may seek retribution against the Shias – a disastrous turn of events if that occurs.

Nothing will happen until the funeral. We should get a better idea of how things are shaking out then.

In the meantime, the International Tribunal should expand its mandate to include an investigating into this murder as well. Until Syria is brought to account for the murder of Hariri and other anti-Syrian journalists and politicians, the Lebanese people will never really be free. They will always be looking over their shoulder, waiting to see what Syria might do to rob them of their nationhood.

UPDATE: METHINKS THEY DOTH PROTEST TOO MUCH

Both Syria and Hizbullah have condemned the killing:

Syria on Tuesday condemned the assassination of Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, calling the shooting of the anti-Syrian Christian politician in Beirut a “despicable crime.”

The official news agency Sana said in a statement, “This is a crime aimed at destabilizing Lebanon… Syria is careful about preserving Lebanon’s security, unity and civil peace.”

SANA also quoted an anonymous official as saying, “This despicable crime aims to destroy stability and peace in Lebanon.”

The pro-Syrian Hezbollah party in Lebanon also came out against the murder. Hezbollah member Ahmed Melli told Al-Jazeera television, “We strongly condemn and denounce this killing. It was carried out by those forces who want to harm the future of Lebanon.”

Please note that the Syrian statement about preserving Lebanon’s “security, unity and civil peace” does not include the term “independence.”

This makes 5 prominent anti-Syrian Lebanese murdered over the last 2 years:

Former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was killed in a massive car bombing in February 2005. The journalist and activist Samir Kassir and former Communist Party leader George Hawi were killed in separate car bombings in June last year in addition to lawmaker and newspaper manager Gibran Tueni was killed in a car bombing in December.

Tueni was publisher of the largest Arab daily newspaper in Lebanon, An Nahar and was a much beloved figure. And that list doesn’t include 3 or 4 others who have been wounded in assassination attempts including a very popular female TV reporter.

UPDATE II

Via Malkin, a great article by Daily Star Opinion Editor Michael Young in the Wall Street Journal today that calls for Syria to be punished for the Hariri asssassination:

The Iraq Study Group’s report, expected in the coming weeks, will possibly include such an invitation. Syria’s Lebanese foes fear they will pay if the U.S. and Damascus cut a deal.
If so, it wouldn’t be the first time for Mr. Baker. In 1990, he was a leading light in President George H.W. Bush’s administration, which ceded Lebanon to Syria in exchange for President Hafez Assad’s agreement to be part of the international coalition against Iraq. An inveterate “realist,” Mr. Baker is not likely to balk at negotiating with Mr. Assad if it means the U.S. can buy some peace of mind as it transforms its presence in Iraq. His proposal is unpopular at the White House, and last week Mr. Bush made that known to Mr. Baker and his colleagues. However, because of his electoral defeat, the president, pressed by a Congress avidly searching for new ideas, might find less latitude to ignore Syria down the road.

Unless, of course, the U.N. incriminates Syrian officials in the Hariri murder. That Mr. Assad realizes the fatal implications of this connection was evident when British Prime Minister Tony Blair recently sent a senior adviser, Sir Nigel Sheinwald, to Damascus for a chat. The visit, reportedly approved by Washington, aimed to see if Syria could be enticed away from Iran. If The Economist is correct, and the magazine spoke to Mr. Sheinwald upon his return, the Syrian president has four conditions: an end to the Hariri investigation, a guarantee that the U.S. would not undermine his regime, a return of Syrian influence in Lebanon, and the handing back of the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel in 1967. No doubt Mr. Assad would demand much the same from the U.S. if it ran to Damascus to “engage” him on Iraq, assuming the Syrian leader would consider conceding to Washington in a moment of strength what he refused when he was weak.

The key is the Tribunal. All else becomes impossible for Assad if the Syrian government is implicated in the Hariri killing. Syria would become an international pariah and Assad himself might find himself on the outs.

I have a feeling that things are going to go south very soon in Lebanon.