Has President Assad of Syria miscalculated again?

Widely believed to be complicit in the assassination of ex Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, Assad may have believed at the time that by killing the beloved ex-leader, he was heading off major opposition to his plan to extend the term of office of his ally President Emile Lahoud. In fact, the Lebanese Parliament rubber stamped the constitutional change that allowed Lahoud to serve until 2007 -but Assad paid an unforeseen price. More than a million Lebanese took to the streets demanding a speedup of the Syrian army pull out scheduled for later that spring. Stung by the size and scope of the demonstrations as well as the inability of Assad’s hand picked Prime Minister to form a government, the Syrian army was forced out along with the dreaded security apparatus that had held Lebanon under its thumb for nearly 20 years. The law of unintended consequences devoured Assad’s hopes.

Now once again a political assassination has taken place in Lebanon. This time, the message sent is even cruder and more direct; if we can’t take power by the vote, we will do it by the gun. If two more ministers in Prime Minister Siniora’s cabinet are killed or resign, the government will fall and Assad’s willing partners in Hizbullah will be well positioned to dominate any election. Through violence and intimidation, they would have the whip hand in any electoral contest to replace Siniora’s government.

But Assad once again may be underestimating the desire of the Lebanese people for freedom and independence. There is a chance that the millions who took to the streets to drive the Syrians out of their country may be called upon to demonstrate again – this time in support of the government that they freely elected in the Summer of 2005:

Prime Minister Fouad Saniora and former President Amine Gemayel called on Tuesday for unity in the deeply divided country after Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel’s assassination.

“Assassinations will not terrorize us,” Saniora told a press conference after an urgent cabinet meeting.

“We will not let the criminal killers control our fate.”

Saniora said “it is time for all Lebanese to unite.”

“The government will take up all its responsibilities in order to protect the interests of the Lebanese,” he pledged.

Saniora said “this aggression increases our determination to see the creation of the international tribunal” to try suspects in the 2005 murder of five-time Premier Rafik Hariri.

“It is time for all the Lebanese to rally around the international tribunal,” he said.

“I call on the Lebanese…to be alert to the sedition planned for them,” he said.

While all the March 14th Forces are calling for calm and restraint, the real question is what the Lebanese people may be thinking about all of this.

Would they consider taking to the streets again to support the democrats? It is one thing to demonstrate with little danger of confronting opposing forces. But it is quite another to go into the streets knowing that a confrontation with the armed militia of Hizbullah looms. And much has happened since those heady spring days in 2005 that have disillusioned some and caused others to question the efficacy of democracy itself. The war with Israel turned many Lebanese against the United States. And Siniora – fairly or unfairly – is closely identified with our efforts to help bring democracy to Lebanon.

Still, there may be a large reservoir of support for the March 14th Forces with ordinary Lebanese. And while they may not be opposed to some kind of cabinet compromise that would increase the number of Shia ministers, this violent attempt to affect the current crisis almost certainly does not sit well with them. They may feel compelled to support the government out of patriotic pride – the same kind of pride that drove them into the streets to demonstrate against Syrian hegemony in their country.

The situation in Lebanon is almost certainly coming to a head. The United Nations is expected to approve the rules for the Tribunal and send them back to Lebanon for the final go ahead by Siniora’s cabinet. The Gemayel assassination along with the news that another government minister was fired upon today makes it absolutely clear what Syria and Hizbullah’s end game is. Tony at the Lebanese blog Across the Bay:

This comes as the UN is set to approve the intl. tribunal today to send it back to Lebanon to be ratified. It also comes at the same time as Hezbollah and the other Syrian agents prepare to take to the streets for a coup d’état to protect the Syrian regime from the tribunal.

My fear is that they will go after a couple more ministers to ensure the government falls.

If this kind of scenario were to unfold, it would mean Hizbullah street demonstrations and Gemayel’s funeral procession would pretty much occupy the same space at the same time. I have no doubt that the ordinary Lebanese who will pour into the streets to show their love and affection for the crown prince of one of the great political families in Lebanon will stand up and be counted when it comes time to show their support for democracy. Whether it will be enough to stave off disaster is anyone’s guess.