The “Windy City Flyer” aka Devin Hester returns one against the Cardinals.

It’s so close, the city can taste it.

Just one more game. One more obstacle in the form of the New Orleans Saints and my beloveds will be bound for Miami and the Super Bowl two weeks hence.

Everyone in town is talking about the Bears. The story dominates the local news on both radio and TV. They’re front page news on both the Trib and the Sun Times all week. The suburban dailies have gotten into the act as well, running 3 column stories below the fold and giving the local angle on the game.

On sports talk shows, the gloom is palpable. It seems most of the “real” fans – you know, the ones who wanted to feed Rex “The Wonder Dog” Grossman to the lions prior to last week’s game – have given up on the boys in burnt orange and blue while making the Saints out to be the second coming of the San Francisco 49’ers whose Joe Montana led teams dominated the game in the 80’s.

I can understand their trepidation. On offense, the Saints are loaded. A trio of excellent wide receivers and the double doom combination of Deuce McCalister and rookie sensation Reggie Bush at running back make it a difficult task for any defense to stop them.

But there are several factors that mitigate against a Saints victory today, not the least of which is the weather forecast. It will be cold (temp in the upper 20’s) and a fierce wind that will probably play havoc with both the passing and kicking games. And if that’s not enough, there’s a 90% chance that snow will fall during the game. With 1-3 inches expected today, the ground crew at Soldiers Field will keep the field covered until almost game time. This will make the turf a little slick. Generally, this favors the offense since the receivers know where they’re going while defenses must react to the play.

A slick field will also favor the offensive lines for both teams since they will have the advantage of a push off at the snap of the ball. All told, this is where the game will be won or lost; in the trenches.

While this is a truism for any NFL contest, on a cold, snowy , wet day like today, the war at the line of scrimmage will become even more vital. And largely because of that, I have to pick my beloveds to squeak by the Saints in a close contest dominated by the running game and field goal kickers for both sides.

Here’s how I see the key matchups:

SAINTS OFFENSE VS. BEARS DEFENSE

Can the Bears stop the run? Probably not. But they must avoid the big play. They have proven in the past few weeks that even if a running back gains yardage on them, the defense has been able to stifle the opponents offense in other areas. And where my beloveds must absolutely stop the Saints is in the short passing game.

If conditions are as anticipated, Saints quarterback Drew Brees will use the flat pass to both Bush and McCalister as a way to extend the running game beyond the hash marks. Bush had 88 catches during the season and is a deadly weapon on the outside in the flat. And to counter this, Bears corners are going to have to be sure tacklers today. If Bush can get by the cornerbacks on a regular basis, it may end up being a very long day for my beloveds. Charles “Peanut” Tillman is an excellent run defender and a sure tackler. But the other cornerback Nathan Vashar is suspect. Both men must step up and be at the top of their games if the Bears are to stay in the game.

The Saints make devastating use of Reggie Bush by lining him up in several positions. He’s been at tailback, in a split set, in the slot, a motion man, and he’s even lined up at wide receiver. What the Saints try to do is isolate the youngster against a linebacker. Ordinarily, this is excellent strategy. But this would be playing directly to the Bears’ strength. Few linebackers are faster than OLB Lance Briggs and virtually none can beat Brian Urlacher. Brees might get a nasty surprise if he tries sending Bush up against one of those gents. Look for Bush to stay pretty much in the backfield and take those flat passes from Brees while trying to break one for a big play. They may try a few screens with Bush but the Bears have defensed the screen extremely well all year so they probably won’t get anywhere with it.

The Bears will probably employ a nickel package for most of the game. This will put enormous pressure on the defensive line to effectively rush the passer. With 5 defensive backs, they will try and keep blitzing to a minimum – unless Brees begins carving them up in the secondary. If that happens, look for Urlacher to come hard and come often.

In fact, the key to this game for the Bears is Brian Urlacher. If he plays as he’s capable of playing – if he dominates the game as he has shown he can do – there’s a very good chance that the Bears will win regardless of what the offense does. And if they can create some turnovers, it will be a long day for Brees & Co.

If conditions are bad, the Saints advantage at wide receiver may be blunted somewhat. Also, veteran Joe Horn is questionable with a sore groin. All told, I think the Saints will win or lose the game in the backfield. If Bush has a big game, they win.

But in the trenches, I think the Bears defensive line has a chance of dominating the Saints offensive line. New Orleans has a solid if unspectacular bunch protecting Brees but I believe by the fourth quarter, the Bears will have worn them down and will begin applying effective pressure to the quarterback. And if the game is close, that will be a difference maker.

BEARS OFFENSE VERSUS SAINTS DEFENSE

Which Wonder Dog shows up today will be immaterial. Good Rex or Bad Rex won’t matter in snowy, windy conditions, because it will be the running game that will score points. And while New Orleans has two outstanding backs, the Bears also feature two effective runners of their own. Thomas Jones will start the game. But I really think this will be Cedric Benson’s game.

Benson is a bull. Unlike Jones who falls backward when hit, Benson is always moving forward. And that extra half yard that Benson is able to get out of runs may spell the difference in difficult playing conditions.

And if Benson (or Jones) can move the ball on the ground, look for Wonder Dog to try a few passes in the middle of the field. Otherwise, Offensive Coordinator Ron Turner will have him on a short leash, having him throw flat passes to the backs, quick slants, and quick out patterns to Desmond Clark. In fact, Clark may be another key in this game. If he catches more than 5 balls, Rex is probably playing well enough to win.

The Saints have two good defensive ends in Wil Smith and Charles Grant who are more than capable of blowing up plays. My beloveds will probably double team Grant given right tackle Fred Miller’s less than stellar play lately.

But the rest of their line is somewhat undersized. If the game is close in the fourth quarter, look for the Bears to try and ram it down their throats and pound the ball using Benson as the battering ram.

It is not likely that Rex will take too many shots down the field. But if he does, speedster Bernard Berrian will have the edge on the Saints corners and safeties. Saints CB’s Mike McKenzie and Fred Thomas are adequate but scouts say they can be beat using a double move. Both Bears wideouts Berrian and Mushin Mohammed excel at the double move- especially Mohammed. If Wonder Dog can get them the ball in the windy conditions, my beloveds have a chance for some big plays.

It goes without saying that if Grossman throws two or three interceptions, the Bears will lose. Ron Turner will probably do everything he can to prevent that by keeping the ball underneath. Unless the Bears are getting beaten badly.

The Saints linebackers are quick to the ball and speedy. Any running game the Bears can muster will depend on downfield blocking by the guards who pull often. Rueben Brown is especially effective here and All-Pro center Olin Kruetz will also pull on occasion. If the Bears offensive line can knock the linebackers back a yard or two, the running game should open up a little. Otherwise, expect New Orleans to make Rex Grossman beat them by stacking 9 men close to the line and daring my beloveds to pass.

INTANGIBLES

Forget the fact that New Orleans is a dome team. With the Super Bowl as the prize, both teams will forget about the cold and snow and give it everything they’ve got. There will be no advantage to either team in that respect.

The Bears special teams may decide the ballgame – either way. Devin Hester looked scared last week and fumbled a punt while allowing both kickoffs and punts to hit the ground before he picked them up. He is perfectly capable of turning the ball over deep in Bears territory.

That said, he is also perfectly capable of bringing one back every time he touches the ball. He is an extraordinary weapon. And the Bears could really use a couple of long returns by Hester today.

If the game is decided by field goals, New Orleans must get the edge with the experienced John Carney. Robbie Gould may be going to the Pro Bowl but Carney has the leg to make the ball cut through the wind and split the uprights. Both men have proven themselves when the game is on the line however, so the edge is extremely slight.

And I think the punting game will play a role today. For that, the Bear’s Brad Maynard has it all over Steve Weatherford. In a field position game, the Bears will have a slight edge there as well.

When all is said and done, it will be a good game; hard hitting, good defense, and probably a couple of great plays by Reggie Bush. But in the end, the Bears will force the Saints into kicking field goals while the Bears should score a couple of touchdowns.

Final score: Bears 23-19.

ON TO MIAMI!

UPDATE

Ed Morrissey picks the Saints – partly because of their special teams?

Perhaps I’ve forgotten which Saint returned 6 kicks for touchdowns or which Saints field goal kicker is going to the Pro Bowl. My bad…

UPDATE II

Fifteen minutes to kick off and I just checked the radar. There’s a band of precip headed for downtown that should arrive by halftime. It’s light but appears to be a combination of sleet and snow.

Footing will be treacherous in the fourth quarter….

UPDATE III

Halftime: Bears 16-7.

Bears pressure has thrown Brees off slightly – until that last drive when they moved down the field with ease.

Storm is still moving toward Chicago but still appears around an hour away, Could be that the 4th quarter is played in snowy, windy conditions.

If the Bears are smart, they’ll try and build some confidence for Grossman (3-13 for 37 yards) by having him make short tosses to the backs in the flat. Right now, he’s a non factor.

Saints will come back but Bears will still win – maybe by 10 points.

UPDATE: MIAMI BOUND

I’ll have a recap of the game tomorrow but what we long suffering Bears fans are feeling right now is beyond description. The 1985 team was expected to go to the Super Bowl. In fact, they were expected to dominate the NFL for at least a few years. But injuries to the punk quarterback Jim McMahon and the flight of Defensive Coordinator Buddy Ryan along with some key players made the hill a little too high to climb.

This year’s team was expected to get to the playoffs but the Super Bowl? There aren’t too many pundits who predicted it at the beginning of the year and here they are. And given the angst of the fans and the media over the last few months as the defense disintegrated, the domination of the Saints makes this trip to Miami even more of a shock.

The Saints did not play their game. Field position had something to do with it but it seems like Coach Payton lacked patience when he was down by only two points. Instead of trying to get the running game going (holes were opening up in the 3rd and early 4th quarter) he continued his downfield play calling. He got yardage but no points. And of course, the Bears defense came up with huge play after huge play.

The conditions surprisingly seemed to bother the Saints. As the game went along, Brees got progressively less accurate while Grossman, who started out an unbelievably bad 7-22 ended up completing his last 6 passes – including the miracle to Berrian.

What about Rex? Let’s see how he does in the warmth of Miami. His best games were in the heat of September and October. We’ll see how he responds to this definitely sub par performance. It must be said that he threw no interceptions, no fumbles, and was smart with the football.

At this moment, I don’t really care. Everything else is forgotten as my beloveds – my dearly beloveds – are going to the Super Bowl.