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3/24/2007
ARE WE DAYS AWAY FROM WAR WITH IRAN?
CATEGORY: Iran

It’s almost as inevitable as the daffodils blooming.

Every spring for the past three years, we’ve heard reports that the US intends to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. While this has proved to be an incorrect prediction in the past, there are some signs that within a month, the United States could initiate hostilities against Iran, thus setting off a chain reaction of events – the outcome of which would be uncertain.

There have been numerous reports since January of this year that point to an April kickoff for such an attack. And in the last 48 hours, two separate foreign news services have pegged April 6 as the date for the attack. And then there was this curious story in the Turkish Daily News talking about using Bulgarian and Romanian air bases where increased activity has been spotted recently:

The United States “could be using its two air force bases in Bulgaria and one at Romania’s Black Sea coast to launch an attack on Iran in April,” the Bulgarian news agency Novinite claimed. Commenting on the report, The Sunday Herald wrote that the U.S. build-up along the Black Sea, coupled with the recent positioning of two U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups off the Straits of Hormuz “appears to indicate that U.S. President Bush has run out of patience with Tehran’s nuclear misrepresentation and non-compliance with the U.N. Security Council’s resolution.”

“Whether the Bulgarian news report is a tactical feint or a strategic event is hard to gauge at this stage. But, in conjunction with the beefing up of the America’s Italian bases and the acquisition of anti-missile defense bases in the Czech Republic and Poland, the Balkan developments seem to indicate a new phase in Bush’s global war on terror,” wrote the Scottish paper…

The Bulgarian agency named Colonel Sam Gardiner, “a U.S. secret service officer stationed in Bulgaria,” as the source its story.

Before the end of March, 3,000 U.S. military personnel are scheduled to arrive “on a rotating basis” at the United States’ Bulgarian bases. Under the U.S.-Bulgarian military cooperation accord, signed in April, 2006, an airbase at Bezmer, a second airfield at Graf Ignitievo and a shooting range at Novo Selo were leased to the U.S. Army.

The Sunday Herald noted that last week, the Romanian daily Evenimentual Zilei revealed the U.S. Air Force is to stage several flights of F-l5, F-l6 and Al0 aircraft at the Kogalniceanu Base. According to the story, Admiral Gheorghe Marin, Romania’s chief of staff, confirmed “up to 2,000 American military personnel will be temporarily stationed in Romania.”

At the very least, all of this activity points to getting our ducks in a row militarily so that a decision can be made one way or the other to attack Iran and be followed immediately by military action.

Would Bush attack Iran without Congressional approval? He’s be writing his own articles of impeachment if he did. And given the dwindling support for the President among Republicans on the Hill, it could very well lead to his removal from office.

Ahmadinejad’s most recent outrage – the taking of 15 British sailors hostage – along with our apparent refusal to give him a visa to come to the US and speak before the UN about the planned sanctions against Iran, (It’s possible we issued the visa but Ahmadinejad decided not to come due to the hostage incident which would gain him no friends anyway on the Security Council.) could be significant. Did the Iranians take pre emptive action, believing an attack is imminent and would they use the Brits as human shields for their nuke sites?

Wild speculation to be sure. As is this entire article. But when enough people are whispering that something is about to happen, you can either ignore it as gossip or take it as a sign that things are going on behind the scenes that we, the public, may not be privy to.

UPDATE

Here’s a little levity regarding the prediction of an imminent attack:

Q. Why is the United States being forced into Daylight Savings Time three weeks early?

A. Back in 2005, Bush was planning an attack on Iran for April 2007 and some policy wonk pointed out that the attack would be taking place during the Daylight Savings Time change. It would be crazy to be changing clocks during a shooting war so, Bush’s wonks created a bogus piece of legislation called the Energy Policy Act of 2005 as a cover for early Daylight Savings Time. Now Bush can have his surprise attack on Iran without the fekkups that would be created by time changes right in the middle of an attack.

What do you expect from the English language Pravda forum?

By: Rick Moran at 3:28 pm
26 Responses to “ARE WE DAYS AWAY FROM WAR WITH IRAN?”
  1. 1
    Andy Said:
    4:06 pm 

    I don’t give much credit to attack rumors this year. The bases in Romania and Bulgaria are not well positioned to support a strike against Iran, particularly with F-16’s. At over 1500 miles, the aircraft would require multiple aerial refuelings there and back. We’d also have to cross national boundaries which would require diplomatic approval.

    The trouble with attacking Iran will come down to basing and overflight rights. It’s unlikely many of the Gulf Arab countries will allow us to use their territory to support a strike for fear of Iranian retaliation. That really limit our options beyond carrier air power, long-range bombers and cruise missile strikes. If basing is a problem, then Bulgaria and Romania may be options if overflight of either Turkey (not likely) or the Caucasus nations could be negotiated. The distance to most of the targets would be about 1/2 of what we flew for the El Dorado Canyon strike against Libya in the 1980’s, so it’s conceivable. Another problem would be the Russians, who could detect the strike aircraft and warn the Iranians.

    Finally, those news reports citing April 6th are not credible. Assuming the US has chosen that particular date, it would be one of the most closely guarded secrets and certainly would not be leaked to foreign media.

  2. 2
    Dee Said:
    4:23 pm 

    There is certainly something in the wind, Rick. Iran’s aggressive action in snatching the British Marines and their almost completed dealings with Russia not to mention (as Bush has been pointing out lately) they have been supplying the Iraqi insurgents with sophisticated weaponry. All this points to the shadow of Iran wanting to get in on the action. I think also the fact that we are just now gaining some measure of success there, the stage is clearing for Act 2. Here’s my take.

  3. 3
    In the Bullpen » Another Bogus Report out of Tehran Pinged With:
    4:27 pm 

    [...] We may be days away from a larger war with Iran, though I highly doubt it because these types of provocations have happened since one day in 1979 without consequence, but there’s no question bumping up Daylight Savings Time has absolutely nothing to do with any supposed plans.  New Russia, same Pravda. Sphere It [...]

  4. 4
    SlimGuy Said:
    4:53 pm 

    Rick

    I don’t know where I read it today but there were 39 visas sent to the Swiss Embassy to support the visit and there were 36 others waiting in reserve for any eventualities.

  5. 5
    bird dog Said:
    7:00 pm 

    Ridiculous, Rick. Ain’t gonna happen. But no telling what Israel might do. I suspect everything going on is covert.

  6. 6
    William Teach Said:
    8:16 am 

    And, as usual, those on the Left are taking Iran’s side.

  7. 7
    bill Said:
    10:24 am 

    The U.S. isn’t going to attack Iran, but when Israel does, we will play backup.

    FNC had a video of the VISAs going to the Iranians, so that story is bogus.

  8. 8
    Rob Said:
    10:36 am 

    I hope that we don’t go to war with Iran, not yet anyway. Alot of people could say that were fighting a global war anyway, but the truth is that you need troops before a war. And the troops are bing sent to Iraq so a 2 Nation war right now is not a good idea in my opinion, even if its a just cause.

  9. 9
    George Said:
    10:54 am 

    Hinging an attack on the switch to DST???? How unhinged an analysis!

    Anyone with a modicum of real knowledge knows that time zones make no difference in such an undertaking.

  10. 10
    TCinLA Said:
    12:33 pm 

    One looks at this sort of news and compares the actions of the pResident with those of his father, who spent six months building an actual international coalition, brought a majority of the political opposition aboard for his policy of expelling Iraq from Kuwait, and performed the action with vast international support.

    Unfortunately, sonny-boy proves the old adage about great fortunes (both financial and political) that the first generation (Preston Bush) makes it, the second generation (G.H.W.
    Bush) preserves it, and the third generation (moron boy) loses it.

    Would you people please please please do the country a favor and next time take a good look at the resume of your presumed Dear Leader? A resume that reads “failed at everything I ever did other than blowing up frogs with firecrackers, turned everything I ever touched to disaster and would be living in a box under a freeway overpass if daddy and his friends hadn’t bailed me out of everything I ever screwed up” is not really the kind of background one wants in the Leader of the Western World.

  11. 11
    crosspatch Said:
    2:27 pm 

    Take note of the reaction so far of the UK and the US. So far it has been extremely subdued. We have a call from both countries to release the hostages immediately and nothing much beyond that.

    Iran does this to get the price of oil up on world markets by creating regional tensions. Every time they do this, they make money. They need money right now. They are behind on their payments to the Russians for building a power plant. They are also importing foreign refined petroleum products which tends to offset their oil revenue.

    By keeping the rhetoric to a minimum, we are minimizing Iran’s profiting on the situation. Rather than a major military attack or an attack on nuclear facilities, an extremely limited attack on domestic refining capacity might be a option.

    Israel’s response to Hezbollah has caused tremendous economic damage to the Shiite community in Lebanon and to Iran who payed for the building of much of the infrastructure that was destroyed and has said they would pay to rebuild it. The kidnapping and invasion got oil to $75 per barrel but Iran and her allies in Lebanon didn’t profit from it.

    Iran shouldn’t profit from this latest attempt to create a little windfall for herself either. OPEC should announce increased oil export quotas, the world should treat Iran economically as if it were a lake, and there should be a refinery “accident” or two inside Iran. Then the longer they drag this on, the more Iran suffers for it.

  12. 12
    MarkJ Said:
    4:53 pm 

    Dear TCinLa,

    Tsk, tsk. You have forgotten the Prime Directive for Moonbats: “It is better to remain quiet and think yourself a fool, than to open your mouth…and remove all doubt.” It’s nice you mention Bush 41’s coalition building prior to Desert Storm but, hey, your crowd didn’t even want us to spend blood and treasure kicking Saddam out of Kuwait, did they? Hmmmmmmmmmm?

    Bush 43 has “failed at everything?” Gee, last time I checked, we haven’t had a terrorist attack since, oh say, 11 September 2001; Saddam Hussein and his sadistic rug-rats are still dead; the Taliban is still out of power, and Osama bin Laden (War Be Upon Him) still can’t come out of his cave because, the minute he does, he’ll immediately move to the front of our “Hellfire Enema Express Line.”

    Important safety tip, TCinLA: Stringing together parlor Marxist slogans and half-baked, demonstrably-wrong cliches with chewing gum and chicken wire does not an argument make. Come back when you’ve got a better one.

  13. 13
    clarice feldman Said:
    6:28 pm 

    We may be committed under NATO to respond to an act of war against the UK, however the Jerusalem Post reports today that the waterway’s jurisdiction is unclear under international law and Britain seems to be taking a vry low key diplomatic approach. But don’t ask me why Iran took this seemingly lunatic step.

  14. 14
    Mitzi Said:
    6:51 pm 

    Hey #10: Your BDS is in full bloom and not helpful to anyone, especially yourself. Whatever George Bush is, he has certainly shown more character than you have. Your kind of hatefulness and arrogance ALWAYS comes back to hurt oneself. You had better watch out!

  15. 15
    B.Poster Said:
    8:53 pm 

    The only way the US will take military action against Iran will be if Iran or its proxies attack the American homeland or American interests outside of the Middle East. What to make of the increased activity? I suspect it is either false reporting by the media wishing to fan the flames of Anti-Americanism or we may have receirved information that we deem to be credible that an attack by Iran or its proxies on the Aemrican homeland or American interests outside of the Middle East is imminent. In this case, we sould want our military assets to be properly positioned to take appropiate action.

    This would be the only way Romania, Bulgaria, or anyone else would allow their territory to be used to launch a military operation against Iran. If they allow their territory to be used by the US to engage in military operations against Iran, they will become a target for Iran or its proxies. With the desire of appeasement that currently grips the world, the only way they would assist the US in this manner would be if the US presented clear evidence of an imminent Iranian attack.

    While the US will not be taking military action against Iran until after Iran attacks it, Israel is a different matter. A nuclear armed Iran would be very dangerous to the US but it is something we probably could manage, however, due to its small size and its close proximity to Iran combined with Iran’s hatred of Israel a nuclear armed Iran is an existential threat to Israel. The Israelis will have no choice but to act preemptively to take out this threat.

  16. 16
    r4d20 Said:
    6:59 am 

    Attacking Iran would be stupid.

    We don’t have troops to follow up an attack, so the “best” we can do is an isolated bombing campaign that will not take out the regime and certainly bring “retaliation” which could well be more than we are currently prepared to deal with.

    We have 130,000 troops in Iraq, surrounded by hostile natives at the end of long and vulnerable supply lines. Iran has plenty of manpower, including millions of basij who can support the regular army by rushing us in numbers – soaking up our ammo and air/artillery support. Iran also has enough anti-ship missles to effectively close the straights of Hormuz to our ships – we haven’t won any of our own wargames that wasn’t “rigged” by artifically limiting the number of missles “allowed” to be used by Iran.

    Not that any of this will matter to most of you – You proabably think I’m slandering the troops by not believing they can do anything. You think supporting the troops means believing they can do everything on a shoestring budget … and then asking them to do just that.

  17. 17
    ed Said:
    12:03 pm 

    MarkJ:
    You said:
    “Gee, last time I checked, we haven’t had a terrorist attack since, oh say, 11 September 2001”

    We have had the same number of terrorist attacks on American soil under President Bush as we did under President Clinton. One. So I can only assume you see both leaders as strong and successful against terrorism in the United States?

  18. 18
    The Thunder Run Trackbacked With:
    2:09 pm 

    Web Reconnaissance for 03/26/2007

    A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention.

  19. 19
    wooga Said:
    3:53 pm 

    Actually Ed, Clinton had the OKC Bombing, first WTC bombing, 1998 African embassy bombings. There may be others, I just haven’t slept in 36 hours. But that’s still 3 (if you combine the African ones together) terrorist attacks on US soil under Clinton. Versus 1 under Bush.

  20. 20
    Rob Said:
    6:07 pm 

    Wooga,

    I think it was implied the terroist attacks were of the overseas government variety on US soil. Saying that the Oklahoma City bombings were under Clinton’s watch is like saying the Grenwich Village shooting happened under Bush.

  21. 21
    Mark Espinola Said:
    6:29 pm 

    Putin’s boys in the basement of the Kremlin’s disinformation department are spreading a rumour that Iran will be attacked on Good Friday (April 6th, 2007). Iran’s terrorist exporting régime will be attacked, but not because the very nation supplying Iran’s nuclear fuel and advanced weapons – Russia – says so.

    Both Russia and Iran (plus wise energy traders) stand to earn a lot heafty profits on Moscow’s rumour mill.

    We are being played, while we pay at the pump!

  22. 22
    doriangrey Said:
    8:56 pm 

    wooga, Yea you forgot TWA Flight 800

    http://www.twa800.com/index.htm

    http://www.mp3.com.au/artist.asp?id=16834

  23. 23
    B.Poster Said:
    10:46 pm 

    Mark

    I think you may be right there. I suspected this myself. Also, Russia fans the flames of anti-Americanism by spreading the lie that the US will attack Iran. The only way the US or its allies attack Iran will be if Iran or its proxies attack the American home land or American interests outside of the Middle East.

    We do seem to be being played for fools by Russia. As a result of the invasion of Iraq, the price of oil has risen to very high levels. This has served to enrich Russia who is the most dangerous enemy of the US and Western Europe. Somewhere Putin and the guys in the Kremlin must be laughing their heads off at us.

  24. 24
    Mark Espinola Said:
    9:51 am 

    Poster,

    What you said is true, Putin’s crowd are enriching themselves on energy (oil & natural gas) profits each time they claim America is inching closer to all out war with Iran, the result is global energy markets get nervous and energy contacts earn more bullish premiums.

    OPEC’s Iran’s ruling jihadist, who triggered this latest round of tension by brazenly kidnapping the British sailors is the real ‘insider trader’ are also earning millions with the panic driven rise in energy costs.

    Iran is pulling the same oil market stunts Saddam did, dilibertly incite higher prices through military or energy supply threats, collect hefty oil profits, then allow the tension to subside and collect on his pre-positioned bearish oil contracts.

    I realize there is far more at stake for the unstable jihad-o-holics (currently) controlling Iran with their demented goal of provoking an even greater geographical ‘jihad’ with the intent that a far broader Shi’ite war against the ‘infidels’ will hasten the ‘Mahdi.

    We are being played by Iran & Russia, in economic terms.

    When the US, UK and other supported allied forces finally take the required counter measures against Iran, lets see who will still be laughing in Tehran. The question remains what course of action will Putin take, if any?

    We may not have long to wait to discover that answer.

  25. 25
    Paula Wright » Blog Archive » Who will take on Iran? Pinged With:
    3:02 pm 

    [...] At Right Wing Nuthouse, Rick Moran presents evidence that a US attack against Irran is imminent, but then finishes off by saying that given the current mood in Congress, President Buysh would be writing his own articles of impeachment if he attacked without congressional approval. While we’re getting far enough into Bush’s second term that it seems less likely that there would be time to impeach P4resident Bush, Rick neglects another interpretation of all the US troop movements he cites: could the US be preparing to provide logistical cover for an Israeli strike? Let’s consider the pros and the cons: [...]

  26. 26
    Sorta Blogless Sunday Pinup » Pirate’s Cove — Global Warming Rules! Pinged With:
    10:13 am 

    [...] Right Wing Nut House asks if we are days away from war with Iran [...]

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