Will he or won’t he?

Newt Gingrich has teased his supporters (and detractors) for months with intimations that he would run for the GOP nomination for President.

Now it appears that he has pretty much decided that he will, in fact, run – but as is typical with the former Speaker of the House, he will do it in his own time and on his own terms:

In an interview with Diane Sawyer on “Good Morning America,” the former Republican speaker of the House said there was a “great possibility” that he would run for president.

He will make that decision sometime in the fall. Sawyer noted that previously Gingrich had only said he was “thinking about” a run for president.

“You said you’ll make a decision at the end of the September,{is it} more likely, less likely this morning? Sawyer asked Gingrich. “I think right now, it is a great possibility,” Gingrich said.

“A great possibility you’ll run? Sawyer asked. But Gingrich declined to elaborate. “I don’t want to get into all this stuff,” Gingrich said. “I want to focus on what we have to do to make America successful.”

Gingrich was visiting “GMA” to talk about his new book, “Pearl Harbor: A Novel of December the 8th,” which he co-wrote with William Forstchen.

But Gingrich took time to assess the field of declared candidates and said he wasn’t happy with the current contenders, comparing them to contestants on “American Idol.”

“We’re in this virtually irrational process,” he said. “It’s exactly wrong as a way of choosing a national leader.”

So why wait until September? A look at the disadvantages of waiting so long to enter the race formally are daunting. Other candidates enjoy the benefit of having already hired most of the 1st tier pollsters, media and campaign consultants, fundraisers, and moneymen who supply the nuts and bolts organization to any campaign staff. Gingrich’s close advisors, including campaign consultant Joe Gaylord, have little or no experience running a national campaign – not necessarily a fatal flaw but certainly a problem when one is talking about hitting the ground running just 4 months prior to the first contest in Iowa.

Then there is the question of money. Rudy and McCain may each have raised over $70 million by September 1st. Romney may have raised more. Newt’s strategy is obvious. He is going to need to generate plenty of free press along with a breakthrough win in an early primary or caucus state. This would give much needed momentum to his campaign and allow him to carry on into “Super Tuesday” or, as some are starting to call it, “National Primary Day” on February 5. The problem there is that with less money to spend, Newt will be at a distinct disadvantage in heavy media states like California and New York (another big media state that will almost certainly move their primary to February 5 is Illinois). He will have to rely on the magic his name still holds for large numbers of conservatives as well as a general dissatisfaction with the current crop of candidates.

Otherwise, his entering the race is an exercise in futility.

There is no doubt that Gingrich is an idea man first, last, and always. In a profile written for Cox News in 2003, Newt makes no bones about who he is:

I’m a scout, thinker, policy developer,” he explained in advance of his milestone birthday. “...I can actually go and look at all these things and meet all these companies and learn all these ideas. I can think about them from 40 years of experience. And then I have the standing to show up and do hearings or go to meetings.”

Sipping on a Diet Coke in a cafeteria on Capitol Hill, Gingrich had just presented his notions on how to cure the health care system in general and fix Medicare in particular to the Senate Special Committee on Aging. Afterward, he posed with admirers and autographed copies of his testimony text.

Now he is talking to a reporter who has written about him for 20 years: From brown hair to steel gray to nearly white. From obscurity as Georgia’s lone Republican congressman to Speaker. From Time Magazine Man of the Year in 1995 to humbled resignation four years later. The Newtonian words come as fast as ever. With a gaggle of young interns hanging on every syllable, Gingrich verbally bounds from history to high-tech, military to medical, arcane to august.

And Gingrich makes it clear that he doesn’t think much of the current GOP frontrunners for the nomination:

The top Republican presidential front-runners are trying to woo conservatives, but so far it seems an unrequited love.

“The three front-runners are just not viable conservative choices, and I think what we know about the three front-runners is enough really to doom them,” said one Republican voter.

There seems to be an opening for a conservative candidate. Former senator and actor Fred Thompson may have his eye on the White House. Some speculate that Gingrich, with the release of a new book and his apology to conservative leader James Dobson for past personal indiscretions, could as well.

That last nugget – Newt’s “personal indiscretions” – may doom his candidacy before it starts. For a rundown of “Newt the Philanderer” and “Newt the Hypocrite,” this website gives a good accounting. And with Hillary’s crew of experienced personal attack dogs, Republicans may want to think twice about nominating a candidate with so many personal, financial, and ethical problems in his past. He’s just too easy a target.

None of that will probably matter to legions of conservatives and fans. I gave my reasons for not supporting his candidacy here. Short version; idea men make poor executives. And Gingrich has a history of beginning to follow through on an idea only to leave it behind to conquer the next mountaintop.

No matter. If Gingrich runs – and it seems a virtual certainty that he will even with the mini-boomlet for Fred Thompson – he will certainly add some much needed color and fire to the GOP campaign. Wherever Gingrich speaks and whatever he talks about, sparks fly. Like flint being struck, ideas, facts, and historical analogies leap from his fertile mind and light up the TV screen. But given his late start and the almost overwhelming advantages enjoyed by the frontrunners, Gingrich’s candidacy will probably be a hopeless effort.