Don’t ask me. I don’t have a clue. But Larry Kudlow does:
An extraordinary money-market development has occurred in recent days. The safest liquid credit instrument — the gilt-edged 91-day Treasury bill — has seen its yield plunge.Here’s the story: Last Wednesday, August 8, T-bills traded at 4.49 percent. On Monday they dropped to 4.74. On Tuesday, 4.63. And yesterday they fell to 4 percent. This morning they dropped another 50 basis points to 3.52 percent. What’s this mean? It means the entire banking system has turned completely risk averse and is fleeing into the safest haven possible.
It is fear. It is hording cash. It is a mountainous tremor that has seized financial markets.
In terms of funding requirements — for big mortgage banks like Countrywide, or perhaps the major money-center banks and various hedge funds — it shows financial dysfunction.
Um…okay. I sorta understand that. What should we do about it?
The Federal Reserve must lower its target rate and pour new cash into the banking system. It should float the federal funds rate and let reserve and money-market forces determine the right rate level as it injects new liquidity into the system. A T-bill rate around 3.5 percent suggests a fed funds target rate of perhaps 3.75 percent, or somewhere thereabouts.Right now, because of the fear and hording, cash demands inside the banking system are rising faster than cash reserve supplies injected by the Fed. So the central bank should keep adding new money until the fed funds rate stabilizes in the open market. In other words, the key target variable right now should not be the Fed’s interest-rate target, but the large amount of new cash it is injecting into these markets.
Put simply, Ben Bernanke & Co. should let the money market set the new target rate. Their job is to create enough new cash to stabilize and accommodate the fear-based rush of liquidity demands.
I’m no Milton Friedman, but won’t that goose inflation?
So far, the economy looks fine. This is good. But the Fed must be the lender of last resort for the banking system. For my inflation-worrying friends out there, I say we can deal with that issue if it remerges sometime in the future. After financial stabilization, the new cash can be withdrawn and the fed funds target can be readjusted.All I’m saying is first things first. That means stabilizing the banking system and accommodating the huge cash demands that have arisen. Right now, the system is virtually frozen.
Whenever the stock market plunges as it has in recent days, Americans get very nervous. Especially these days when more than half of us either invest directly in individual stocks or have shares in mutual funds. Our pensions are heavily invested in the market as well.
And most of us are like me; almost completely ignorant about the forces at work that make stocks rise or fall. This crisis, as I’m sure you’ve heard, is all about the sub-prime mortgage outfits who took advantage of the market when housing was booming by offering loans to marginal (“sub prime”) credit risks. Most of those people will work out fine, paying on time and staying current. But a large enough percentage of those mortgages will be a lost cause, thus precipitating a credit crunch as sub prime lender after lender goes belly up.
With the credit crunch, cash dries up. Even I know that much. Now Kudlow wants the Fed to intervene by dumping massive amounts of dollars in the banking system hoping it will reduce the panic and get everyone’s feet under them.
Whatever Chairman of the Fed Ben Bernanke does, I sure hope he acts quickly and that whatever his prescription is, works.
2:04 pm
Stocks Extend Slide on Countrywide News…
Stocks fell sharply Thursday after investors were shaken by problems at Countrywide Financial Corp. ...
3:06 pm
Absolute idiocy from Kudlow.
These people need to decide whether we have a “free market” or not. When profits are to be made, it’s all private. When losses arise, well it’s socialism to the max and we all have to chip in to bail out Larry’s friends.
6:27 pm
“Don’t ask me. I don’t have a clue.”
I don’t think anyone has really. I suspect that is most of the problem. As I understand it the idea was to spread risk on loans throughout the financial system so that when something went wrong it was so dispersed that it didn’t bring down big players and could be contained.
The trouble is that this was perceived as lowering the risk, and that along with the easy liquidity being liberally sloshed around the world and low interest rates (to encourage growth after 911) it encouraged reckless lending. This reckless lending has now, rather inevitably, proved to have been a bad move.
At this point, if things were playing by the old rules, a few banks would go under, lots of mortgage companies would go under, we would all suffer a bit for a couple of years and people would eventually get over it.
The thing that has people running for the most secure form of cash is that because of the spread of the bad risk, nobody quite know who has lost how much. You could be holding stick that is going to tank instantly if it turns out that its CDO (Or, God help us CDO squared) is made up of bad debt. But it may not.
So you aren’t alone. The market is flustered because everyone is trying to make the best moves in the dark. That’s why, rather than seeing the whole thing go down, you are seeing these big drops, followed by liquidity injections, followed by rallies. The day starts with everyone being scared and running for their security blanket, then daddy turns up and gives everyone a big cuddle and makes them feel that maybe it is going to be alright, then smart people think “Hey it went down but it didn’t have to, I should buy!” and up it goes again.
Nobody’s tried this before you see, it is a new phenomenon. I’m a grouch so I think that, ultimately, the fiction is going to fall to pieces and we’ll be in a godawful sitution. Money these days, as far as I can tell, is entirely hallucinatory. The thing that probably makes me wrong is that it in in the interests of everybody in the entire system to pretend that the Emperor’s clothes are lovely. If everyone dreams the same dreams at the same time, maybe it all hold together.
Or we could be in for a hell of a credit crunh / inlationary spiral that is out of control of everyone.
“Whatever Chairman of the Fed Ben Bernanke does, I sure hope he acts quickly and that whatever his prescription is, works.”
So does he, I suspect. He’s only really got one option available to him, keep pouring liquidity into the system and hope that it bouys it up. Good luck to him.