It’s the Administration says the left. It’s probably al-Qaeda themselves, say those more reality based.
Whoever made it, may very well have faked it:
Osama Bin Laden’s widely publicized video address to the American people has a peculiarity that casts serious doubt on its authenticity: the video freezes at about 1 minute and 36 58 seconds, and motion only resumes again at 12:30. The video then freezes again at 14:02 remains frozen until the end. All references to current events, such as the 62nd anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of Japan, and Sarkozy and Brown being the leaders of France and the UK, respectively, occur when the video is frozen! The words spoken when the video is in motion contain no references to contemporary events and could have been (and likely were) made before the U.S. invasion of Iraq.The audio track does appear to be in the voice of a single speaker. What I suspect was done is that an older, unreleased video was dubbed over for this release, with the video frozen
Just to be sure, I downloaded the MPEG file and played it on my Windows Media Player (I sometimes have issues with the Flash Player). Sure enough, the video freezes right where Mr. Maschke says it does – in both instances.
In effect, what we have is about a 3 1/2 minute video that has been stretched out to more than 26 minutes by simply freezing a frame of OBL over first about ten minutes then more than 12 minutes of the tape.
The Telegraph gives us a possible explanation:
The al-Qaeda leader’s first video message for three years featured a bizarre rant against America, with references to global warming, “insane taxes”, the US mortgage market meltdown and rising interest rates.American spy chiefs were quick to name Adam Gadahn, the head of al-Qaeda’s English language media operations, as the author of large sections of bin Laden’s broadcast.
Last October, the 28-year-old “loner” became the first American charged with treason since 1952, for appearing in a succession of al-Qaeda videos under the guise of “Azzam The American”, in which he condemned globalisation and made American cultural references.
[snip]
What surprised analysts was his use of the language of Left-wing protesters, which showed detailed knowledge of the economic travails of middle America.
Bin Laden referred to “the reeling of many of you under the burden of interest-related debts, insane taxes and real estate mortgage” and blamed “global warming and its woes” on “emissions of the factories the major corporations”.
A former senior US intelligence official said: “It has Adam Gadahn written all over it.” Mike Baker, a former CIA covert operations officer, said the tape left bin Laden with “the title of biggest gas bag in the terrorist world”.
CIA officials said voice analysis of the tape proved it was definitely bin Laden.
Funny that the CIA concludes that it’s Bin Laden on the tape but never mentions – or perhaps didn’t catch – the freeze framed video. It is hugely significant because as Maschke points out, all of the topical references that “prove” the tape is recent are uttered when the “video” is in freeze frame.
If our government is going to release a tape showing that Osama is alive, one would think that this kind of little detail would be hugely important to point out to the press and the American public. If anything, this video chicanery buttresses the case that Osama has been worm food for a while.
Wheels within wheels: The CIA knows Osama is dead but doesn’t want al-Qaeda to know that we know. Why? Perhaps they have someone close to al-Qaeda’s inner circle. Not close enough to know where they are, but close enough that our intelligence people are kept abreast of a few things. Letting on that we know Osama is dead might expose that source to al-Qaeda.
And how about the idea that this is a speech that may have been written by some poor deluded leftist twit pretending to be a jihadist read by the world’s number one terrorist? Adam Gadahn may be a useful idiot to al-Qaeda but I hardly think they have grown so unsophisticated that they would be using him as Osama’s ghost writer – literally. Besides, CNN International is seen all over the world. If they want to copy leftist propaganda spouted here in the United States, they can do no better than use Ted Turner’s creation for that.
Michael Ledeen is not convinced either:Third, is it really Osama? As you know, I was reliably told something like two years ago that Osama had died. Nothing in this speech sounds at all like the “old” OBL. That man knew how to give a stemwinder, he used elegant language, his threats were blood-curdling, his calls to the faithful inspiring. This man talks like, well, a high school dropout. In fact it reads like an “Onion” spoof. And the sound is bizarre, at least on my IBM desktop. It sounds almost as if there was enough garble in it to make it difficult to match with voice prints of the “real” guy. I’m not convinced.
Is it possible that this “tape” was manufactured by the Bush Administration and released just days before the Petreaus Report to Congress on Iraq in order to sway nervous Republicans into standing firm while reminding the American people that Iraq is part of the War on Terror?
The question has to be asked because it will probably be the number one topic of conversation on lefty blogs today. And the answer is a qualified no, it is not possible. One can accuse the Bush Administration of incompetence in many areas but you would think if they were going to run a fake video, they might have done a better job of manufacturing it so that some guy in pajamas sitting in his mother’s basement couldn’t expose them.
And al-Qaeda shutting down it’s various websites immediately after the tape’s release is an interesting tell as well. They wouldn’t want their sympathizers telling the world that the video is an obvious fake.
Yes, I suppose it is possible that the Administration ordered up the video for the Iraq debate. Anything is possible. But there is not one scintilla of evidence that points the finger at the Administration while logic and inference finger this as an attempt by al-Qaeda to stick their nose into the debate themselves – just as they tried to do with the 2004 election when they released the last Osama video.
I’m sure this is not the end of this story. By the end of the day, I suspect a Blogswarm as well as further interesting speculation. Perhaps even more revelations will be forthcoming once bloggers with professional audio and video equipment start putting the tape to the test.
One of those days when it’s great to be a blogger…
8:38 am
U.S. official: Voice on video is bin Laden…
Initial analysis indicates the voice on a recently released videotape is that of Osama bin Laden, a …
9:41 am
I haven’t figure out just what makes this video fake. We know that UBL has medical problems to say the least, so it would seems probable that he may not feel up to posing before a camera for twenty-some minutes. Just what is an al Qaeda PR specialist to do ? A little freeze framing during the portions where UBL is slumped over ?
So it looks like the video is “processed”. Now what about the voice track ? Is that really UBL ? Even those claiming fake say it is the same voice throughout the latest video, but is it UBL ?
Just looking at the transcript, if you didn’t know who wrote or spoke it, you’d swear you heard a voice from the grave. I mean, when was the last time you heard a Democrat talking about lowering you taxes ?
9:54 am
Bullwinkle has the latest video of UBL or is it fake.
10:28 am
Fake/Real Interesting reading. I just wish we did’nt have so many damn Rules of engagement so our boy’s could be out their kicking butt the way they can and would if not hindered by all the BS.
11:51 am
Is the Bin Laden Video a Forgery? (Updated)...
Ex-Army linguist George Maschke thinks the latest Bin Laden video is a fake. He writes:Osama Bin Laden’s widely publicized video address to the American people has a peculiarity that casts serious doubt on its authenticity: the video freezes at about …
11:54 am
Well, I do so hope this creates no problems for Adam Gadahn but it’s obvious he’s our mole in AQ set out to turn them into laughstocks as he feeds us critical information.
Oops, did I inadvertently “out” him?
12:31 pm
While I would have preferred OBL die on a spike in the public square, I’ll be happy enough if he is finally rooting in hell. Here’s hoping its faked.
1:37 pm
“ts was his use of the language of Left-wing protesters, which showed detailed knowledge of the economic travails of middle America.
Bin Laden referred to “the reeling of many of you under the burden of interest-related debts, insane taxes and real estate mortgage†and blamed “global warming and its woes†on “emissions of the factories the major corporationsâ€.”
come on. this alone raises the red flag. Maybe it wasn’t the Bush administration but it was obviously domestically produced, a ham handed attempt to embarass “the left” I highly doubt bin Laden gives a s**t about the subprime mortgage crisis.
1:38 pm
May be? It is.
Oh, and thanks for being so condescending when I mentioned that it is fake in your “Osama to blog on Kos” post!
This wasn’t the first fake, and it will not be the last.
Bush is either retarded or complicit when he points to stuff like this and says “See, without me the boogeyman is gone get ya!”
2:12 pm
Funny that the CIA concludes that it’s Bin Laden on the tape but never mentions – or perhaps didn’t catch – the freeze framed video.
There are plausible reasons for the “freeze-framing” other than the possibility of it not being Osama.
The CIA knows Osama is dead but doesn’t want al-Qaeda to know that we know. Why? Perhaps they have someone close to al-Qaeda’s inner circle. Not close enough to know where they are, but close enough that our intelligence people are kept abreast of a few things. Letting on that we know Osama is dead might expose that source to al-Qaeda.
This is possible, but, if we do have a source inside the “inner circle”, then why haven’t killed/captured more “high ranking” people?
There are plausible reasons – including the possibility that the source is high enough to know OBL is dead but not high enough to lure Zawahiri to a specific place at a specific time.
Still, if its true that OBL is dead and the CIA is “playing dumb” about it, I would bet on the source of the info being sig-int – remember the history of how we tracked his satellite phone use until the Washington Times published this information.
Of course, its also possible that this is Osamas game – that he knows there is some speculation that he id dead, believes it to be useful, and purposely avoids providing solid proof of his life because he wants the question to remain open.
I hardly think they have grown so unsophisticated that they would be using him as Osama’s ghost writer
Why? Hes American so he knows our culture and our idioms/terminology/expressions and can communicate better than someone who has to write in Arabic and then translate.
Translation can be a huge problem – for example, the expression “let the cat out of the bag” is not universal and translating it literally would produce something that would sound odd and possibly confusing to non-Anglo people (the phrase originated in the Royal Navy). I have no doubt that many phrases that are common in Arabic sound just as odd and clunky when they are translated into English.
Zawahiri is VERY media conscious – in his book “Knights under the Prohets Banner” he specifically credits the failures by Islamic movements in the 90s to capture large popular support to insufficient & ineffective use of the media. Al Queda deliberately started making these tapes in the late 90s specifically to correct this mistake – it was NOT something they had done from the start. When it comes to the media Al-Queda has shown itself to be adaptive and willing to try new things and new ways of getting its message across. Perhaps they have decided that the earlier tapes weren’t having the desired impact on American public and decided to try using a native to craft the speeches in the hope it would produce a better impact. It would not surprise me in the slightest.
2:48 pm
Melanie:
Here was your comment from the other thread:
They should have gotten an actor for the video this time that actually looked like Osama. The desperation of the Administration these days is so pitifully obvious.
I wasn’t dissing the idea that the video was faked. I was laughing at your tin foil hat notion that the Administration made it.
It’s stupid and silly. And nuts to believe that.
M’kay?
2:59 pm
With each video starring a new Osama the President uses it to point to the “danger”.
He is either involved in this scam or the dumbest man on the planet.
7:08 pm
Sure, you would think. In the same way, you would think that if “protecting the US public in the event of emergency” was your party’s strong suit, you wouldn’t allow a predictable disaster like Katrina to take out a US city.
In the same way you would think that if you were offering proof that Saddam had nukes, you wouldn’t base your intel on something that college students could prove was a forgery.
In the same way you would think that, if you have years to plan out an invasion, and have the luxury to choose the start date, and if that invasion were “the essential struggle of the generation,” then you might think of some basic “what if’s” such as regards basic security, the region’s history, and the extreme likelihood of sectarian insurgency (as just a few examples).
In other words, Bush has failed at every single attempt to show that his administration is effective in any way, other than as a recruiting tool for Al Qaeda. If BushCo did fake the Osama video (and I’m by no means convinced one way or the other), I wouldn’t see it as out of character in terms of BushCo’s effectiveness or intent.
I don’t think this is a wise avenue of questioning for a Bush supporter. It may well expose something you’d rather were hidden.
12:52 am
Hi Rick, How are you?
I don’t think it was a fake, after comparing it with other tapes of OBL I have. I have a pretty good ear for vocal inflection and tonality.
What’s more, bin-Laden has surprised us before with his knowledge of affairs herein America.He has made common cause with the Angry left before, just not so blatantly.
And in the final analysis, I don’t think it matters..whomever did it, this was an `invitation’ on behalf of our enemies to accept Islamic rule or die,in accordance with Islamic practice for a `just war’. I don’t think it was an accident that it came out on the same day as General Petraeus’ report, an djust before 9/11.
It cites the idea of `just retribution’ unless one `enters the Garden’(accepts Islam).
I think something’s imminent. We’ve been far too lucky and complacent.
1:59 am
“Is it possible that this “tape†was manufactured by the Bush Administration and released just days before the Petreaus Report to Congress on Iraq in order to sway nervous Republicans into standing firm while reminding the American people that Iraq is part of the War on Terror?”
It is not possible, because the Bush administration would never lie about such important matters, just for political gain. It is impossible. It would never happen. They are too suffused with integrity, love for truth and respect for the American people for that.
sigh
“One can accuse the Bush Administration of incompetence in many areas but you would think if they were going to run a fake video, they might have done a better job of manufacturing it so that some guy in pajamas sitting in his mother’s basement couldn’t expose them.”
How long did it take to find out that the Niger Yellow Cake documents were faked? I believe that it was an hour on Google, they were so clownishly done.
Besides, this tape fooled you, it fooled the CIA, it fooled Fox, CNN, BBC, ABC, etc, etc. It can’t have been so bad.
Doesn’t there come a point where you recognise that you are being played? Doesn’t it get embarassing eventually?
8:32 am
#15
Doesn’t there come a point where you recognise that you are being played? Doesn’t it get embarassing eventually?
I often have similar thoughts when reading through the posts/comments on echo chambers such as DU, LGF, C&L, Hannity’s site, Kos, NewsMax, ThinkProgress, MediaMatters, etc.
5:27 pm
[...] Update 3: Rightwing Nuthouse has doubts Funny that the CIA concludes that it’s Bin Laden on the tape but never mentions – or perhaps didn’t catch – the freeze framed video. It is hugely significant because as Maschke points out, all of the topical references that “prove†the tape is recent are uttered when the “video†is in freeze frame. [...]
11:42 pm
Osama Bin Laden: As Seen on TV!...
Hey, everyone! Sorry to be so long, brave warriors and jihadis, but as you can see — my barber and Allah (peace be upon Him) have blessed me with — quite a luxuriant beard! ...
3:46 am
“I often have similar thoughts when reading through the posts/comments on echo chambers such as DU, LGF, C&L, Hannity’s site, Kos, NewsMax, ThinkProgress, MediaMatters, etc.”
Hmm, so we are comparing partisan websites and their commentors with the proclaimations of the government of your country.
Well, I suppose that the comparison is fair. I’d just expect a whole lot more integrity from my elected representatives, that’s all.
7:29 am
#19
No, WE are not making that comparison, but rather YOU are in order to divert from the point I was making, i.e. the posts/comments in said echo chambers confirm that quite a lot of people are allowing themselves to be played like a fiddle by the movement or mindset they’ve ascribed to. Feel free to prove me wrong, but your posts reveal an underlying BDS affliction, although it is a mild enough case that you’re still able to engage in civil discourse here, and perhaps are even still able to enjoy a pint or two on occasion with a person who has supported Tony Blair.
11:57 am
This is true, even (and often most grievously) when the “movement” is a rogue outgrowth of the US government known as the Bush Administration.
4:10 pm
#21
If there truly are rogue elements operating with the president’s knowledge inside the Administration, then Bush should be impeached. If it is true “Bush lied us into an illegal war,” the House should have no trouble drafting/passing Articles of Impeachment for the Senate to pass a verdict on. Dennis Kucinich, darling of the Socialist “peace worshipers” on the far left, speaks of a “war based on lies” as if that were a foregone conclusion, yet Speaker-to-be Pelosi takes impeachment off the table months before the November 2006 election, presumably because enough hard evidence doesn’t exist to support a sure conviction. Can you offer a rational explanation for this apparent dichotomy between two prominent Democrats, one the Speaker of the House and the other a presidential candidate? If not, maybe you ought be more careful about the false labels you’re throwing around in regards to the Administration’s legitimacy.
4:15 pm
“Feel free to prove me wrong, but your posts reveal an underlying BDS affliction, although it is a mild enough case that you’re still able to engage in civil discourse here, and perhaps are even still able to enjoy a pint or two on occasion with a person who has supported Tony Blair.”
I love this BDS thing that you have going. As far as I can tell the majority of your population are infected with it. Even the esteemed host of this site seems to suffer from it occasionally. Given that the entire idea is simply absurd, I can’t imagine how I would prove the absence of BDS to you. Could you tell me how yo distinguish between someone who dislikes the man intently for his cronyism, incompetence, bullheadedness, ignorance and gross responsibility for numerous thousands of violent deaths, from someone who is suffering from BDS?
The idea that disliking Bush must be driven by an irrational syndrome should have been put to bed a long, long time ago.
As for Mr.Blair, some good, some bad. I really appreciate the effort that he put into the NHS (I work in it and can see the difference clearly) but think that he made the biggest mistake of his life hitching himself to the Iraq train. I suspect that, looking at how things have gone, he would agree in his quiet moments. At least Mr.Brown has enough leeway to recognise this and is pulling away slowly.
“a lot of people are allowing themselves to be played like a fiddle by the movement or mindset they’ve ascribed to.”
As for this, yes, it goes on everywhere. But this stuff is just blatant. I don’t trust any of those websites. How on earth can you trust the Bush administration now, after the past years of deceipt and incompetence?
Do we need a syndrome for you? Maybe Bush Enrapture Syndrome?
9:05 pm
Fake beard? Fake video?...
I’ve been wondering if the new UBL video is faked. The whole fake beard thing bothers me. Rich Moran has more evidence of potential fakery in the video, including a pretty suspicious freeze frame….