This report from the usually reliable Asia Times online is spectacular news if true. The Pakistani military has declared all out war on the Taliban and al-Qaeda in their sanctuary provinces of North and South Waziristan:

An all-out battle for control of Pakistan’s restive North and South Waziristan is about to commence between the Pakistani military and the Taliban and al-Qaeda adherents who have made these tribal areas their own.

According to a top Pakistani security official who spoke to Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity, the goal this time is to pacify the Waziristans once and for all. All previous military operations – usually spurred by intelligence provided by the Western coalition – have had limited objectives, aimed at specific bases or sanctuaries or blocking the cross-border movement of guerrillas. Now the military is going for broke to break the back of the Taliban and a-Qaeda in Pakistan and reclaim the entire area.

The fighting that erupted two weeks ago, and that has continued with bombing raids against guerrilla bases in North Waziristan – turning thousands of families into refugees and killing more people than any India-Pakistan war in the past 60 years – is but a precursor of the bloodiest battle that is coming.

Lining up against the Pakistani Army will be the Shura (council) of Mujahideen comprising senior al-Qaeda and Taliban commanders, local clerics, and leaders of the fighting clans Wazir and Mehsud (known as the Pakistani Taliban). The shura has long been calling the shots in the Waziristans, imposing sharia law and turning the area into a strategic command and control hub of global Muslim resistance movements, including those operating in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Someone or something lit a fire under President Musharraf in order for him to commit to this kind of action. You might recall it was a little more than a year ago that Musharraf made his pact with the devil, concluding a deal with the Taliban and tribes that essentially gave them free reign to set up shop in South Waziristan. This is after a deal he signed the previous year doing the same thing in North Waziristan.

At the time, Musharraf had not committed his forces to defeat his foes but rather upset their strategic plans for cross border incursions into Afghanistan as well as training and logistics for al-Qaeda fighters headed to Iraq. His efforts failed and he was forced to sign the humiliating agreements with the terrorists.

All this is apparently about to change:

According to the security official, an ultimatum had been delivered to the militants recently during a temporary ceasefire. The army would set a deadline and give safe passage into Afghanistan to all al-Qaeda members and Taliban commanders who had gathered in Waziristan to launch a large-scale post-Ramadan operation in Afghanistan. They, along with wanted tribal warrior leaders, would all leave Pakistan, and never return.

After their departure, under the direct command and surveillance of newly appointed Vice Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani (who will replace President-elect Pervez Musharraf as Chief of Army Staff), fresh troops and paramilitary forces would be sent in to establish bases at all strategic points and disarm the local tribes. The Durand Line (the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan), would be fenced and border controls would be tightened.

The militants rejected the ultimatum.

Won’t the Taliban and al-Qaeda run away to fight another day?

The militants have little option but to stand and fight, rather than slip across the border or melt into the local population. Aside from the sanctuary and succor afforded them in the Waziristans, most of the fighters there are either Waziris, or from other parts of Pakistan, or foreigners. They would be unable to support themselves in Afghanistan, especially as most of the non-Waziris do not speak Pashtu – a fact that also prevents them from disappearing into the Waziristan populace.

Just how important is this coming battle?

This could prove to be the turning point in the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan while setting al-Qaeda’s operations back to where they were in 2003 after the Taliban was defeated. A “qualified” intelligence estimate is that pacification of the Waziristans would reduce the capability of the Afghan resistance by 85% as well as “deliver a serious setback to the Iraqi resistance” who depend on the bases in Waziristan for money, weapons, and logistical support.

In addition, as the most recent National Intelligence Estimate on al-Qaeda shows that much of its command infrastructure had been reconstituted since 2003. If the Pakistani military is successful, that infrastructure will be destroyed along with their bases. And how huge is that?

How serious are the Pakistanis about this coming fight?

The safety of Taliban and al-Qaeda assets in Waziristan is a matter of life and death and, therefore, the militants have devised a forward strategy to target the Pakistani cities of Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad, hoping to break the will of the Pakistani armed forces. The Pakistani military, meanwhile, is trying to break the will of the militants with ongoing bombing raids.

Underscoring the seriousness with which the military is planning for the coming battle, it is reported that Shi’ite soldiers from northern Pakistan are being sent to the Waziristans. In the past, the Pakistani Army has been plagued by desertions of Pashtun and Sunni troops who refuse to fight fellow Pashtuns or Sunnis.

The ultimate question is why now? An American might ask “What took you so long?” but that ignores the consequences of what Musharraf is undertaking with this all out attack. By using his air power and armor, it is likely that civilian deaths will be numerous – something no leader wants to do when you consider the population will already be restive with or without the Taliban in charge. This is the way things have been in the entire Northwest Frontier Province area for 60 years – fierce, independent tribesmen who have resisted control from Islamabad from the beginning. Bombing and shelling will not endear the locals to the government.

Then there’s Musharraf’s internal political problem with considerable support for the Taliban in his intelligence service, the ISI as well as the religious parties who refuse to shut down the madrasses that supply the Taliban with a steady stream of recruits. This all out move against the Taliban will not be popular in many quarters in Pakistan.

Finally, you have to believe that American pressure was at work here. Did we tell Musharraf to clear out the Taliban or we would do it for him? The fact that the Pakistani offensive, which began two weeks ago, broke up the Taliban’s plans for a “post Ramadan offensive” and that it is widely believed that we have lost ground to the terrorists in the last year in Afghanistan could very well have elicited such an ultimatum.

Whatever the reason, Musharraf has evidently decided to commit his army to the destruction of the Taliban. And if he’s successful, it might just turn out to be the most significant battle in the war against Islamic extremism to date.