Before my conservative friends get their panties in a twist about my skepticism and before my liberal friends start piling on because I’m just not being gloomy enough about the prospects for success in Iraq, l think we should all take a deep breath, step back, and look at what is happening there not through our partisan political glasses – rose tinted or otherwise – but with the critical eyes of observers who have been watching closely what has been going on for more than 4 years in that tragic, bloody country.
We are all aware of the the progress that has been made these last few months; the welcome drop in civilian deaths, the Sunni “Awakening,” the extraordinary progress made in rooting out al-Qaeda terrorists, and the curious but gratifying pullback in the south by Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army. All of this has combined to create the most important benefit of all in Iraq – the return of hope among the people.
This has been manifested by a return to old neighborhoods by hundreds of thousands of people who abandoned their homes during the worst of the sectarian violence as well as a cautiously optimistic re-opening of business districts previously shuttered due to the violence. It is apparent in many of the interviews with ordinary Iraqis who have voted on the success or failure of our change in strategy with their feet by venturing out and about to sample the nightlife of Baghdad once again.
All but the most unreconstructed liberal (or partisan Democrat) have cheered these events. The reasons for this success vary depending on which side of the political divide you are on. “No one left to kill” say liberals. “It’s the performance of our military,” say conservatives.
Both are right. Both are wrong. And both left out a few details as well.
There are parts of Baghdad that will never see a Sunni Iraqi again just as there are parts that will never see a Shia again. In many neighborhoods, after homeowners were given 20 minutes to pack and told to leave or forfeit their lives (many being executed anyway), Shias and Sunnis moved in to those houses and occupy them to this day. Prime Minister Maliki has a program that pays the squatters to leave if the neighborhood votes to have the original home owner return. But whole neighborhoods were emptied of Sunnis and Shias in Baghdad and there is no doubt that part of the reason for the drop in sectarian violence has been the simple fact that the sects are no longer in close proximity to each other in most of Baghdad.
Our professional military has done more than its fair share as well in helping tamp down the violence. Showing the Iraqis that we have no intention of leaving a neighborhood after it is swept and cleared has given the people confidence to inform against al-Qaeda and the insurgents. This intel has led to information from interrogations that precipitates more raids, more intel, ultimately making the neighborhood much safer.
Our war against al-Qaeda will someday, according to one officer at the Army War College, become a textbook example of rooting out terrorists and insurgents hiding inside a civilian population. The success of this phase of our counterinsurgency plan has shocked even its planners. If the world were fair and the press unbiased, this would easily be the story of the year – the near destruction of al-Qaeda in Iraq. Is it too early to be touting General Petreaus as Time Magazine’s “Man of the Year?”
Then there’s the Sunni “Awakening.” The reason I put that in quotes is because no one is sure – least of all our commanders on the ground who have made this point abundantly clear – just how this “Awakening” will play out.
It pains me to see a note of triumphalism creeping in to some pro-war blogs and columns. I share their enthusiasm for the good news but not their apparent blindness to the dangers of making allies of former enemies – especially enemies whose goals have not changed; America out of Iraq. Some of these Sheiks have truly changed sides and are working with us eagerly on security issues while being open to reconciliation with the Shias – as long as they are treated fairly.
But there are many more tribal leaders who view this marriage of convenience with our military as a lull in their blood feud with the Shias. This is extraordinarily bad news if we can’t differentiate between who our true friends might be and who are future enemies are certain to be. To these Sheiks, no political reconciliation is possible with the government as long as it is made up of Shias like Maliki and his sectarian gang. What they might do if the Iraqi government would be more to their liking is anyone’s guess. But as StrategyPage.com has pointed out many times, many of these former Baathists are nationalists who will never voluntarily give up power to the Shias and despise the Americans for propping up the Maliki government (who they see as little more than a sectarian thug who has murdered thousands of Iraqi Sunnis).
From all that I’ve read both in media here and overseas, it appears to me that an unknown number of these Sheiks and militia leaders – perhaps less than a majority but that would be a guess – will eventually return to their insurgent ways. In short, we will eventually have to deal with a reconstituted insurgency. Hopefully, we aren’t giving them too many arms that would assist them in being any more formidable than they already are.
I hasten to add that this is not my analysis but has been talked about openly among our commanders as well as other observers around the Middle East. To them, it is not a question of if the Sunnis turn but when.
In the south, there is no other way to describe what is going on but a lull in the violence. The coming war between the Mahdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr and the Badr Organization for ultimate control of most of the population centers has been put on hold by Mookie, probably at the behest of his Iranian sponsors.
In fact, one could say we have achieved a kind of victory over the Iranians as we have forced them into what David Ignatius calls a “tactical retreat:”
[T]he recent security gains reflect the fact that Iran is standing down, for the moment. The Iranian-backed Mehdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr has sharply curtailed its operations. The shelling of the Green Zone from Iranian-backed militias in Sadr City has stopped. The flow from Iran of deadly roadside bombs appears to have slowed or stopped. And to make it official, the Iranians announced Tuesday that they will resume security discussions in Baghdad with US Ambassador Ryan Crocker.I suspect the Iranians’ new policy of accommodation is a tactical shift. They still want to exert leverage over a future Iraq, but they have concluded that the best way to do so is to work with US forces – and speed our eventual exit – rather than continue a policy of confrontation. A genuine US-Iranian understanding about stabilizing Iraq would be a very important development. But we should see it for what it is: The Iranians will contain their proxy forces in Iraq because it’s in their interest to do so.
Of course, there is still infiltration by Iranian Revolutionary Guards. They seem to have stopped inciting violence among their cadres as Ignatius points out but there is absolutely no evidence they have left the country.
It seems unlikely that the uneasy peace in the south will remain that way for long. Al-Sadr has been reorganizing his militia while at the same time, reaching out to some unlikely allies in the Sunni and Kurdish communities. He would like to broaden his base, removing the sectarian taint from his militia. So far, he has not had much success but its clear he is seeking allies for when he takes on the Badr Organization.
The Badr Organization is smaller but better trained, and is much more powerful politically, being the military arm of the largest party in Iraq, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (formerly the SCIRI). Both militias received various levels of training and assistance from Iran and still receive support from the mullahs there although the Badr Organization has been sidling away from Tehran since the establishment of the government. Their emphasis has been on infiltrating the Iraqi police and army.
Iran is seeking a Shia enclave in southern Iraq and will, according to some observers of Iran, use the Mahdi Army to achieve that goal once the American drawdown is well underway. The leader of SIIC, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, hates the upstart al-Sadr and will oppose any expansion of his power. Hence, the set up for conflict in the south once al-Sadr gets his act together.
Even what appears to be a permanent reduction in violence by al-Qaeda might be illusory. There is no sign that Syria or Saudi Arabia have much interest in seriously trying to keep their borders secure from terrorist infestation of Iraq. The feeling is apparently because they don’t want them in their countries either. Better they blow themselves up in Baghdad than Riyadh or Damascus.
All this would normally point to exactly the attitude that the Administration has taken relating to the spate of good news coming out of Iraq – cautious optimism.
Not so some commentators and bloggers on the right who have trumpeted the news that we are “winning” in Iraq with all the fervor of a newly baptized convert. The gloating is unseemly by some and is liable to come back and bite them in the butt. We even have Charles Krauthammer comparing what is going on in Iraq with the Inchon Landing during the Korean war and the 1864 turnaround of Union fortunes during the civil war.
That kind of hyperbole is nonsense. We don’t know what the situation is going to be like 6 months from now in Iraq – perhaps not even 6 weeks. There will almost certainly be more spikes in the violence despite the best efforts of the tribes and the US military. Those increases in the body count will not doubt bring equally stupid cries from the left about stupid righties who were “taken in” by the government or some equally nonsensical claptrap.
The situation as it is now in Iraq is just that – the situation now. No more, no less. It would really, really help if the Iraqi government got off its behind and took this extraordinary opportunity that our men and women have bought and paid for with their blood and sweat to get busy with trying to reconcile with those Sunnis willing to join the government. And there are Sunnis out there who wish to reconcile, including the large, diverse National Public Democratic Movement made up of dozens of tribes centered around Ramadi as well as The Iraq Awakening out of Anbar province that enjoys widespread local support among the Sheiks.
What is happening in Iraq now has been referred to by some in the Administration as a “window.” I think they are correct. What must be done is to cement as many of the Sunnis as possible to the fortunes of the government while continuing the fight against al-Qaeda and trying to find a way to neutralize al-Sadr.
How much we accomplish relating to those goals in the next few months will tell the tale about whether the gains we’ve made using our new counterinsurgency strategy, so hard fought and exhilarating though they might be, are to be permanent or not.
11:29 am
Rick,
Your analysis would be more convincing if you quoted a few primary sources in the military. You know, the ones actually fighting the war. Pundits and bloggers quoting pundits and bloggers in the end results in speculation squared.
12:17 pm
Too much optimism too soon is not good practice. it doesn’t cost anything to wait a few minutes to see
if something is not only encouraging but also lasting.
“Mission Accomplished” should have made all of us a wee bit hesitant in proclaiming victory too early.
But, that is the American Way. Grab the laurel start the strut, push out the chest and flaunt the acclaim.
The fact that egg on the face is standard covering for most of us never seems to moderate the event.
12:20 pm
What has gone unnoticed by the bloggers and punditry is the stand up of the IA forces and their hard work at making them non-sectarian in nature. The IA has an integrated mix of Arabs, Kurds, Yezidis, Turkomen and Shia, Sunni, Yezidi, Alawite, Christian (RC and Syriac)... This is, perhaps, the most integrated and diverse force in the ME and is now being sent to get Sadr’s JaM. Also being targeted is the Badr work with the ‘Secret Cells’ from Iran… done not just by the MNF, but by Iraqis. The investment of the left-over revenue from 2006 into 10 more brigades, and an increase in overall military funding this year is allowing Iraqis to demonstrate their competence in training and execution of operations with minimal support from the US and more frequently fully autonomously, save for deconfliction of operations with the US.
That is not descriptive of an organization that will let ‘insurgents’ come back. Integrated top to bottom and getting rid of AQI, JaM, Badr, Qods, and good old fashioned organized crime which the previous forces turn to when things get too hot for them. You cannot describe Iraq without its military and police organizations, both of which will require a minimum of 5 years to get functional up to the NCO level and then another 5 for a full fledged command officer corps to advance to those ranks. Advancement is done on what works, not bribery or sect or tribe, which is also something of a novelty outside of Israel in the ME.
What we are seeing is the National reconciliation that America had to go through twice in its history: first after the Revolution when 15% of the people had left for other crown colonies or back to England, and then, again, after the Civil War. Ever hear the phrase ‘The South Shall Rise Again’? In some ways America still has not recovered from the Civil War, but we do seem to have recovered from the Revolutionary war.
For Iraq to keep terrorists out and at bay requires buy-in from the lowest levels to the highest and you will not get that until the provinces and local governments fully stand up. This then puts a premium on the provincial elections which will then undercut the large parties that populate parliament as they will find they don’t serve the provinces well as organizing groups. The Iraq Awakening movement, now spread to Diyala and south past Baghdad province and into the Shia areas is slowly becoming cross-sectarian, cross-tribal and cross-cultural.
Watching this from SEP 2006 there has been one very, very pointed thing the tribal chiefs have put forth: technocratic government is the best way to go. That is getting to be a very appealing idea to a lot of people after AQI, Badr, Sadr, JaM, Secret Cells and just thugs and killers roamig around killing folks on contract. Getting the electricity on and keeping it on, and ditto for water, sewage, roads, railroads, airports, oil infrastructure… that sounds kinda nice to the folks in the Iraq Awakening movement.
Some of those that have left will never come back, and Iraqis will deal with that.
On the ‘segregated neighborhood’ deal, I grew up with the remains of that in Buffalo. An area of the city called ‘Kaisertown’ had some of my family in it. They were Poles, and there were Italians, southern black families, Thai, Greeks… it was ‘Kaisertown’ due to the large number of immigrants from Germany there… in the 1880’s. So just how well has America done with that population? Separated them for good and all?
Those neighborhoods in Iraq cannot stay integrated if their families and tribes are multi-sectarian and there is a pretty high ‘marry out’ rate to other ethnicities and religion has been no obstacle in marriage in Iraq. That really bollixed up AQI, BTW. Really, really got them in bad straights thinking that ‘sect’ mattered more than ‘tribe’. Now we, in the US, must learn from their mistakes and not make the exact, same one in approaching Iraq. The fundamental unit in Iraq is blood ties via tribe, and that only gets watered down with 3-5 generations of city dwelling. As the tribes go, so will go Iraq, and we best start learning that really quickly before we make the same mistakes as al Qaeda did. Luckily our troops are smarter than that… our political pundits? Unfortunately not.
3:31 pm
Rick:
You are so consistently independent and reasonable I have a hard time believing this is on the internet. Where’s the regurgitation of conventional wisdom? Where’s the wild-eyed ranting along partisan lines? Don’t you get how this is supposed to be done?
ajacksonian:
Two quotes from your comment: What has gone unnoticed by the bloggers and punditry is the stand up of the IA forces and their hard work at making them non-sectarian in nature. The IA has an integrated mix of Arabs, Kurds, Yezidis, Turkomen and Shia, Sunni, Yezidi, Alawite, Christian (RC and Syriac)... This is, perhaps, the most integrated and diverse force in the ME and is now being sent to get Sadr’s JaM
and: The fundamental unit in Iraq is blood ties via tribe, and that only gets watered down with 3-5 generations of city dwelling.
Precisely why so may of us are skeptical that the Iraqi Army, let alone the National Police, is for real. Armies either work for a government, or become the government. Iraq lacks a government to employ and direct this army of theirs. So, unless the Iraqi government steps up, and quickly, the likelihood is that the army will disintegrate under stress at some future point, or else will become the government. Neither of those last two possibilities feels like victory to me.
8:58 pm
Rick Moran just kicked me off of MichelleMalkin.com for commenting. I never said anything vulgar or vile in nature and i was kicked off. Does Rick monitor comments on this website because i’am wondering if this comment is going to be censored.
These were my comments and i got pwned for making a spelling mistake.
“I am hard pressed to believe (knock on wood) that miss pricipled conservative or do i mean straussian neoconservative statist christian demagogue is actually criticing the Democrats of being “Casually Anti-Semiticâ€. Ladies and Gentlemen give her a hand. By her standard somebody who criticizes Israel foreign policy hates jewish people. Hithero, what about her criticizism of arab states. Does that make miss Neo-Con a racist. wow!! please ponder on that question.
Sincerly, a Conserned atheist/liberaltarian.”
6:26 am
Rick, spot on. Sadly, it’s virtually impossible to win a war when you can’t identify your friends and foes. Routing out al Qaeda is a good thing, but after that, the conflict morphs into various forms of the Sunni/Shiite virus. Patreaus’ performance has been incredible. But in the end, the stated goal- a stable, democratic Iraq that is our ally in the WOT- isn’t likely. What we really want is #3- an ally in the WOT- and that’s still very remote.
5:08 pm
Last week on Captains Quarters, Ed had some interesting details about the differences between Shiites in Iraq and Iran. Iranian Shiites are of a Najaf sect while Iranians are of a Qom sect. Further, Iranians believe in a theocratic state while the Iraqi Shiites prefer sectarian government. Of course, there is the racial difference. Iranians are Persians (57%) and Iraqi Shiites, mostly Arabs.
From the start, al Sistani has advocated cooperating with the MNF and gaining control through the ballot box.
AJacksonian:
I lived in the Peoples’ Republic of Williamsville from 1987 to 2007. Kaisertown is off Clinton Street? The Fruits are pretty rough these days.
Arch
4:01 pm
Rick, please don’t let what I am about to say go to your head or it will be counter productive. I believe that is one of the finest pieces written not only Iraq but frankly in the blogosphere and beyond. I am finishing up a story about Iraq and I will link to it.
I agree with you on everything and frankly I have to because you clearly understand it a lot better.
The only thing that I would add though is that while I totally agree that the situation remains unbelievably complicated that our forces have gotten through the worst, and more importantly, that I have confidence that they can overcome the complex nature of the battlefield.
5:45 pm
[...] Continuing his quest for the title of “Conservative-Not-Neocon of the Year,” Rick Moran cautions against “overselling” recent successes in Iraq. [...]
10:07 am
Rick,
Here’s an issue I’ve been wanting to bring up for quite awhile, and now seems a good time to do it.
The issue involves Iraq’s oil production, and the question is: what happened to it and the billions and billions of dollars the country was raking in?
In a Fox News story aired perhaps a month or two before our latest invasion of Iraq Carl Cameron noted in concluding his segment that the U. S. was buying Iraq’s oil to the tune of over 100 million dollars A DAY! And that’s just from us.
Presumably Iraq is still a member of the international extorion club known as OPEC. What has happened to Iraq’s oil production during the last six years, and what is it’s status now? I don’t know where to go looking for answer to this question but maybe you have it.
And while we’re at it, how about some reimbursement from the Iraqi government to compensate us for all the blood, sweat and tears we’ve shed in preserving their country.
Your comments on these issues would be greatly appreciated.