It is becoming a depressingly familiar story in Lebanon. What looked so promising just a few days ago with leaders on both sides close to an agreement that would have made Army Chief Michel Suleiman President, has now evaporated in a sea of recrimination and a hardening of positions.

And this comes on top of the news that a massive car bomb - so big it nearly destroyed the building near which it was detonated – has killed General Suleiman’s designated successor and 3 others:

“General Francois El Hajj was killed in the blast and several other people were injured, including his driver,” said the source, who did not wish to be identified.

The official said Hajj was tipped to replace the army’s top commander General Michel Suleiman, who is the frontrunner to become Lebanon’s next president but whose election has been blocked by a standoff between the opposition and the ruling majority camps.

“He was a great man, a kind man, who was very intelligent,” the official said, referring to Hajj.

The general, who was on his way to the defence ministry when the blast took place shortly after 7:00 a.m. (0500 GMT), was head of operations in the army.

He gained prominence last summer during a fierce 15-week battle between the army and an Al-Qaeda-inspired Islamist group at a Palestinian refugee camp in northern Lebanon.

That victory over Fatah al-Islam became a source of immense national pride to the Lebanese people. In fact, it was probably the major factor in Suleiman’s rise to prominence as a presidential candidate. That victory convinced the government that the army chief might be able to rise above faction and serve all of Lebanon.

But at the moment, there is stalemate between the Hizbullah led opposition and the government backed March 14th forces. The majority had dropped their opposition to a constitutional amendment that would have waived the stricture against a serving army commander being elected president. Syria, France, and the US had all signed off on Suleiman and it appeared that once an agreement had been reached about the wording of the amendment, Suleiman would be in.

Alas, it seems that Lebanese politicians are afraid of success. They seem to walk up right to the edge of agreement and then, fearful of taking that last step, they retreat back to familiar territory. The opposition has balked at the amendment and has placed so many impossible conditions on its acceptance that both sides are almost back to where they were last summer:

Consensus over the nomination of the Lebanese Armed Forces commander, General Michel Suleiman, for the presidency appeared to have evaporated after constitutional and political obstacles forced a postponement of a scheduled electoral session for the eighth time.

Hizbullah politburo member Hajj Mahmoud Qmati said Aoun would be the opposition’s sole candidate if March 14 does not accede to Aoun’s demands. Qmati, speaking to Tayyar.org, the Web site of Aoun’s free patriotic Movement, on Tuesday, said that to achieve consensus, March 14 must accept a “basket of conditions,” which includes Suleiman as president and agreement on the shape of the new government, a new electoral law and the ministerial statement of the new Cabinet.

“No one item or condition is separate from the other; they are interconnected. So pending consensus, the opposition’s candidate … remains Aoun,” Qmati said. He added that there is no disagreement among the members of the opposition and said that Speaker Nabih Berri remains committed to the opposition’s “broad stance.”

In exchange for allowing Lebanon to have a president, Hizbullah wants to be able to dictate the makeup of the Suleiman government, the sectarian divisions that would be required in future cabinets, plus a new electoral law that would almost guarantee the Shias a majority in parliament.

And they are saying that the March 14th forces are being “obstructionist.”

So the two sides are retreating back to their original positions; March 14th threatening to elect a president anyway by simple majority while the opposition threatens… anything an overactive imagination can come up with including Hizbullah setting up a rival government smack in the middle of Beirut.

All of this is happening with the car bombing as a backdrop. Who done it? Ed Morrissey thinks it’s al-Qaeda because Syria has supported the compromise and the terrorists may wish to foment a civil war where, like cockroaches, they would come exercise power as a result of chaos and anarchy.

Good guess but I disagree. Al-Qaeda may very well have carried out the car bomb attack – anyone’s guess at this point is valid. But I still think the finger points to Syria with a great big assist from the Palestinians.

As popular as General Francois el-Hajj was for his victory over Fatah al-Islam, he was hated and resented by the Palestinians who didn’t take kindly to the Lebanese army going in to one of their refugee camps and literally leveling the place. Nahr al-Abed is a wasteland today thanks to the street battles and house to house fighting that was necessary to root Fatah al-Islam out of their hiding places. The fact that the Palestinians own leaders gave the Lebanese government permission to go into the camp in order to eliminate Fatah al-Islam doesn’t matter.

But why would Syria be behind the bombing? President Assad has apparently signed off on Suleiman as president. But that doesn’t mean he wants Lebanon any less chaotic. Nor does it mean that he necessarily approved of Francois el-Hajj as army chief.

As for who specifically could have the means and opportunity, there are several ultra violent Palestinian groups that are training in Syria right now and who would have the professionalism and technical expertise to carry out such a sophisticated attack. The massive car bomb is reminiscent of the device that killed former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri – an attack that was planned by Syria and probably executed by Palestinians.

Other, less plausible possibilities is that a violent Sunni or Christian faction carried out the attack. It is believed that el-Hajj actually had political sympathies for the opposition and the blast occured on the two year anniversary of the assassination of publisher and March 14th Member of Parliament Gebran Ghassan Tueni.

But the one overriding factor that fingers Syria is the sophistication and professionalism of the plot. Here is some reaction from Lebanese bloggers:

Tony Bey:

That the target was military is a message to Suleiman in case he had any ideas, but also, a message from Syria to whomever is to replace Suleiman as Army Commander. March 14 is said to have one contender lined up for the job, as part of the compromise over Suleiman. The Syrians just made their point the only way they do: through terrorism.

Mustapha at Beirut Spring:

• The bombing happened a day after another bomb that targeted the symbolic area of Ain Al Rimmaneh , where the Lebanese civil war started.

• While a common way to assassinate politicians, this is the first time an Army figure gets bombed this way.

• Brig. General Hajj holds a sensitive security position and his killing points to a serious security breach by non-amateurs

• The victim was one of the main architects of the Army’s assault on the Naher Al Bared camp.

• The bombing took place one day after the Syrian Vice President said that “Syria is the strongest ever in Lebanon today”

Blacksmiths of Lebanon:

This latest assassination is what it always is: Syria’s use of death, terror, and destruction to try and keep the Lebanese “in line”. Through every opening it receives – the last being France’s overwhelming act of diplomatic buffoonery in Lebanon’s Presidential elections throughout November – the Syrian regime is reinforced in its belief that the international community is unwilling to take serious steps against it, leaving it open to kill, maim, and terrorize the Lebanese.

Hajj’s assassination comes at an important juncture and targets a man who sat atop that juncture: Given the [eventual] ascension of Army Commander, Gen. Michel Suleiman, to the Presidency, Hajj was slated to be a serious contender to the post of Army Commander; And as the Chief of Operations for the Lebanese Army, Hajj played a major role in the military campaign against the Syrian-backed terror group Fatah al Islam at Nahr el Bared.

Taken with the continued drive at the reformation and modernization of the Lebanese Army seen over the last year and half, and the attempted transformation of the institution from just a symbol of sovereignty to an effective a bulwark and tool for implementing it, the above may hint at the Syrians’ choice for a target.

By murdering Hajj, the Syrians may have been sending the message aimed at making sure that none of that transformation is realized, either on the level of the Army or on the level of the Presidency.

From Beirut to the Beltway:

A Lebanese army general tipped to succeed Suleiman as army commander was brutally killed in a car bomb attack today in Baabda. The attack comes less than a day after the Syrian vice president boasted that “no one can win the battle against Syria in Lebanon”, and exactly one year after March 14 MP Gebran Tueni’s assassination.

According to Naharnet, Brig. Gen. Francois el-Hajj was “the chief of military operations of the Lebanese armed forces and a key figure in the army’s victory over Fatah al-Islam terrorists in a 15-week battle earlier this year.”

It is apparent where most Lebanese who support the government stand. But the assassination of General Francois el-Hajj will end up being one more murder mystery that will be addressed by the International Tribunal – if and when it ever begins deliberations.