If you’ve been following politics as long as I have or have been involved in a few campaigns, you usually have a sense of where the race stands on the day of the voting. Perhaps not exact numbers or even the winners or losers so much as who’s on the way up, who’s tanking, and who’s on life support.
On the Democratic side, while there seems to be a surge for Obama, that may be an illusion. According to the polls, a majority of Obama’s support comes from independents. In order for the candidate to translate the enthusiasm for his campaign into a victory, those independents will have to show up to the caucuses in much greater numbers than they have historically.
That’s why I think John Edwards will be the winner tonight. He also is enjoying a surge in support plus he has a genuine ground game in the state thanks to his union endorsements. It will be close but I think Edwards pulls out a narrow victory over Obama with Hillary not far behind in third. If independents do not show up for Obama, Hillary has a shot at second. But the Illinois senator has energized voters with his message of change and hope so look for enough unaffiliated Iowans to boost the candidate into a strong second place finish.
For the Republicans, I honestly don’t know. Enthusiasm for John McCain has become evident over the last 48 hours so anything is possible. I believe Huckabee is dropping while Romney is holding on. Fred also is enjoying a mini-surge according to Zogby. But when people around the campaign start setting a date for dropping out, the writing is on the wall.
Thompson himself denies the rumors:
GOP presidential hopeful Fred Thompson said in an in-studio interview with KCCI-TV in Des Moines that there is no truth to rumors that his campaign will fold before New Hampshire if he doesn’t have a strong showing in Iowa.“That is absolutely made up out of whole cloth,” said the former U.S. Senator from Tennessee.
Thompson said a rival campaign was likely the source of that rumor.
“Can you imagine such a thing in politics?” he asked.
Thompson said his campaign is seeing a “surge” in interest right now, and said he has visited 50 communities in the Hawkeye State in the last couple weeks.
“I’m not going to play into any scenario that’s not totally optimistic,” he said.
Politico may be a little teed off at Thompson because bloggers exposed Roger Simon as a liar when the reporter mischaracterized a Thompson campaign event last month. But Jonathon Martin’s reporting appears to me to be sound, based on observations from both staff and politicians who are close to the campaign. And it’s not a secret that the campaign is out of money and that a poor showing – less than 15% – would place Thompson in an untenable situation where Fred would be forced to compete in New Hampshire with no money, little in the way of paid staff, and not much hope.
At any rate, I am not confident at all about the order of finish on the Republican side. But when in doubt, go with the man with the cash – in this case, Romney. The former Massachusetts governor has a huge organization in Iowa and a sophisticated get out the vote operation. Huckabee will depend on his network of churches and the Fair Tax crowd to get his people to the caucuses. In a war of amateurs versus pros, give the nod to people who get paid to deliver. Let’s go with Romney as the winner tonight.
Will Huckabee finish second? There has been an enormous amount of media generated buzz for McCain over the last 48 hours. But that’s all it is – buzz. It’s hard to see at this late date how you turn that enthusiasm into an organization that will get McCain’s people to the caucus sites. However, if Huckabee truly is melting down – not an impossibility – then there will probably be a shocker awaiting us when the results are announced. A second place finish for either McCain or Thompson would not be as far fetched as it might have seemed just 48 hours ago.
Then again, the trend for Huckabee in the polls has not been all that disastrous. So let’s give Huckabee second place with McCain not far behind in third and Thompson not far behind McCain in fourth. It’s possible that any of those three could finish second. If it’s anyone but Huckabee, we are going to have a barn burner of a race on the Republican side.
Or, everyone – the polls, the pros, the pundits – have all been wrong and its Ron Paul in a landslide. (I threw that in just in case the apocalypse is upon us.)
Allah has some thoughts on what might have been for the Thompson campaign that ring true. And his speculation about Thompson’s Veep prospects also appear to be about right. Glenn Reynolds has been saying for months that Thompson’s goal was the second spot all along.
However, if Fred doesn’t like campaigning, it’s hard to see him wishing for the Veep slot. While the nominee gets to go to all the glamorous venues, the Vice Presidential candidate gets stuck speaking before the Kiwanis and Elks. And is there any more thankless job than Vice President of the United States?
I think if Fred drops out, he goes back to Tennessee to bounce his kid on his knee and make a TV or movie appearance here and there. A sad ending to what began as a promising moment for conservatism.
UPDATE
Byron York talked to Thompson aide Rich Galen who vehemently denied the basis of the Politico story:
Galen told me, “I’m a Republican official in the Thompson campaign, and I’m denying it.” Galen also said that no one inside the campaign was a source for the story. “I can’t put enough adjectives in front of the ‘deny’ to accurately describe how vehemently I’m denying the story,” he said.Galen said that “just to make sure,” he checked with Thompson himself, who told him the story was not true. “We have the schedule for Saturday and Sunday in New Hampshire, and then we’re going down to South Carolina,” Galen told me.
I have no doubt what Galen says is true. But reality might reach up and bite the campaign tonight. The Zogby tracking poll has Fred at 11% – still third place but a dismal number just the same.
Thompson may be hoping McCain and Romney savage each other which would give him a shot – if he does well in the debates this weekend – to gather some momentum for South Carolina.
But if money is the mother’s milk of American politics, Fred, at this point, is an orphan.
8:32 am
Rick,
Some flaws in your analysis.
The primary flaw is regarding McCain. Without the votes of Independents (Dems in sheep’s clothing), McCain would never win anything. McCain is the same Amnesty-lovin RINO he was 6 months ago.
Polls paid for by the MSM are going to favor McCain (every conservative-hatin, liberal paper in America has endorsed McCain). Never vote for the guy the libs love – ever.
McCain voters in Iowa will have NO INTENSITY to go out and vote. He has NO ORGANIZATION in Iowa.
Here’s how it will finish.
Romney – 34
Huckabee – 26
Thompson – 15
Paul – 10
McCain – 8
9:14 am
Fred back to Tennessee? He lives in Mclean, Virginia near Washington DC. He is registered to vote in Virginia…
http://support.tennessean.com/blogs/?p=1582
9:22 am
I’m not giving up my right to vote to ‘the polls generated by the media’.
Is watching Monday Night Football, Desperate Housewives, CSI plus clipping a couple of .20 grocery coupons really worth the price paid to keep the dreadful propagandists in power?
10:12 am
I agree, Fred will not accept a VP offer.
I would love to see though how he would do beyond Iowa and NH in the real world of voters.
11:37 am
Iowa is a state self identified as 45% Evangelical Christian and also self described as Populist, both of which play into the hands of Huck and work against Rudy and Mitt. I don’t trust Zogby for anything their credibility simply isn’t there. Some are even suggesting that Paul could pull a 3rd place in Iowa because of the skew of the state and NH sure will be more to his libertarian style.
Here in Florida we have counties with more people than all of Iowa and pushing close to throwing in NH to boot.
The Republicans have to skew their message in Iowa, NH and Michigan back to back to gain favor to do well. It won’t be till South Carolina that a real test will be done.
Fred seems to be the only one staying on message and frankly NH because of their bias would simply be a waste of time and resources.
Rudy saw it about Iowa and basically ignored the place. I for one think more should have and worked on other states that matter more.
12:12 pm
[...] Rick Moran also predicts the results. He believes that John Edwards will be the winner among Democrats, while Romney is – according to Rick – the most likely Republican to win today. Why? It’ll be so close between him and Huckabee that Rick decides to side with the man who has the money. [...]
12:27 pm
Despite being a McCain supporter, I don’t think he has a prayer of coming in second tonight. I’m hoping for a strong third, with Huckabee winning.
1:19 pm
Fred denies the rumors, but his appearance and ‘gusto’ speaks for itself. Freddy certainly isn’t readdy!!
He may just just have to re-consider his membership in SAG. But who knows, with identity problem in the GOP, someone could still apply some oxygen—and his engine could start humming again. Not hopeful on that!!
http://www.vernasmith.blogspot.com
1:26 pm
McCain might be a RINO, but he’s also a first class hawk (unlike Chafee, Snowe, et al). I don’t like the amnesty thing, but I think he got the message last summer and won’t try it again. The McCain/Feingold free speech argument seems like utter nonsense to me.
Will Ron Paul run in the general and get enough votes to take down the republican candidate the way Perot did? If Bloombird runs will that hurt the Demonrats or the Pro-America GOP more?
1:32 pm
Regarding Fred, I like his don’t-try-too-hard approach, but it’s a good thing for him he doesn’t care whether he loses.
As Bush 41 once said (I can’t quote exactly): We’ve created a process where the type of man it takes to win the election is not a guy you’d want as president.
1:56 pm
It seems that every poll is showing something different today. I found an interesting poll over at http://www.fittobepres.com. It’s ranking each candidate based on 10 “fit factors” that they’ve created. You can rank the candidates yourself on who you think is fit to be president. It’s also interesting to see what the poll has determined each candidate’s strength and weakness to be.
2:15 pm
[...] I may stand wrong, Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen may actually turn out to be right but this just sounds a little like sour grapes. Rick Moran thinks this is a possibility while noting the soundness of Martin’s reporting. Politico may be a little teed off at Thompson because bloggers exposed Roger Simon as a liar when the reporter mischaracterized a Thompson campaign event last month. But Jonathon Martin’s reporting appears to me to be sound, based on observations from both staff and politicians who are close to the campaign. And it’s not a secret that the campaign is out of money and that a poor showing – less than 15% – would place Thompson in an untenable situation where Fred would be forced to compete in New Hampshire with no money, little in the way of paid staff, and not much hope. [...]
2:55 pm
You’ve been watching politics for a really long time but you don’t remember the Vietnam Vets against McCain guys? They’ve been getting press for at least 20 years. They are the folks who get relatives of missing Vietnam soldiers to give them thousands of dollars to supposedly hunt down the still living captives and negotiate for their return from Vietnam…been doing it for a long, long time. They are scam artists and the original “troofers” preying on the emotions of grieving military families.
I’m a military spouse and Fred! supporter, not McCain. But the people who say awful stuff about McCain and Vietnam are horrible folks.
3:32 pm
#1
A flawed analysis, primarily based on:
a) liberals historically (at least in the past few decades) have tended to be more hardcore, partisan and Democrat, leaving “independents” comprised mostly of conservative and libertarian types.
b) just as with Howard Dean in 2004, Ron Paul is getting his juice from the internet superhighway, not from Main Street, USA, hence he will under-perform similarly in Iowa.
Rabid nutroots on the far left, still in denial about how radicalism for it’s own sake frightens away potential supporters, erroneously blame the MSM’s shortlived infatuation with the “Dean scream” for his candidacy’s quick demise. We can expect the same from the coalition of fringe elements nutty enough to believe a caustic, conspiracy-driven isolationist like Paul actually has a chance to resonate with an electoral majority, much less be able to secure the RNC’s blessing.
4:42 pm
I heard Fred on Hannity last night and he said that he’s not bowing out after Iowa and that he has a good feeling about his chances there. I get the sneaking suspicion that he’s polling better than we’re being told. Have a look at Rasmussen’s reports over the past few days. He’s showing 73% of undecideds leaning heavily toward Thompson or Huckabee as their choice.
10:35 am
Clinton and Romney are singin’ “Can’t Buy Me Love” this morning.
Should either one not win in NH, so close to territory they have found to be politically friendly in the past, that person ought to start mailing the checks back sooner rather than later.